Latest poll

The final One News Colmar Brunton poll is:

• Labour 46% (-1%)
• National 31% (-1%)
• Greens 8% (+2%)
• ACT 8% (nc)
• NZ First 3% (+1%)

I do wish they would give us a more precise number for NZ First. This could be anywhere from 2.5% to 3.4%.

The possibilities are:

• 2.5% has 1.0% MOE so support from 1.5% to 3.5%
• 3.4% has 1.1% MOE so support from 2.3% to 4.5%

Also NZ First normally do 0.8% better than the ONCB poll so there is a small but not impossible chance NZ First could make 5% if ONCB has its normal error with NZ First. Will be one to watch on election night.

The MOE on 8% is 1.7% so both Greens and ACT looks good on that poll. But again ONCB tends to have Greens 0.8% higher than they actually get and ACT 0.4% lower so ACT may end up with slightly more MPs.