September 7, 2020 12:00pm by David Farrar

Trump’s electoral college advantage

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 2, 2020

This is a very interesting analysis of the difference between the popular vote and electoral college vote.

If Biden gets just 1% more popular vote than Trump, he has only a 6% chance of winning the electoral college. In fact anything up to a 3% lead sees Trump more likely to win.

For Biden to be confident of victory he really needs to be aiming at a 4%+ lead in the popular vote. His current lead in 7.5% so only needs a 3.5% slippage for the race to get competitive.

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