Poll analysis on Patreon

I’ve done a full analysis of the ONCB poll on Patreon. I’ll repeat here the section on Judith Collins:

Two questions were good for Judith Collins. Let’s look at both of them. The first is her 20% Preferred PM rating in her first CB poll as Opposition Leader. Here is how other new Opposition Leaders have gone in their first poll:

* Phil Goff 6%
* David Shearer 11%
* David Cunliffe 12%
* Andrew Little 12%
* Jacinda Ardern 30%
* Simon Bridges 10%
* Todd Muller 13%

So the 20% for Collins is well above any other recent opposition leader, but not at the level Ardern got.

The even more positive rating for Collins is her approval rating as Opposition Leader. It was 56% approved, 23% disapproved for net approval of +27%. Of course not in the same league as Ardern, but it shows many more people approve of her leadership than are currently voting National and that provides an opportunity for National, than previous leaders did not have.

But the challenge for National is large. I note:

The only parties guaranteed to make it are Labour, National and ACT so the hope for the centre right is National and ACT combined can outpoll Labour. A big ask as they need to take 8% off Labour. But Labour will shed some support – the question is to whom?

If Labour stays where they are. they win easily. If Labour sheds to Greens, they win. If Labour sheds to National, then it gets competitive. The next poll (probably after the campaign launches) will show us which scenario is occuring.