A robust critique

Ian Harrison at Tailrisk Economics critiques the modelling done by the Ministry of Health.

His key takeaway:

When we ran the Covidsim model we found credible paths that could reduce the pace of infections to sustainable levels. Deaths in the range of 50 – 500 over a year are more realistic numbers. 500 deaths is around average for the seasonal flu. We found that the higher OCRG numbers were mostly generated by their assumption that tracing and testing would be abandoned.

This OCRG assumption is almost incomprehensible, unless there was a deliberate attempt to blow up the numbers. Whether the Ministry was ‘in on it’, or simply didn’t understand what was being reported to them, we do not know. We have attempted to discuss the issue with the OCRG but have had no response.

So the figure of potentially 14,000 dead was not at all robust.

This is why we must have a Royal Commission to study all aspects of the Government’s response to the pandemic, including the quality of the modelling and advice.

Worth reading the full paper. It is very easy to follow.