What is the coronavirus death rate?

The Herald reports:

There are claims that at least 210 people in Iran have died as a result of the new coronavirus disease.

BBC Persian reported the figures on Friday, citing unnamed sources in the Islamic republic’s health system and pr

There are claims that at least 210 people in Iran have died as a result of the new coronavirus disease. …

If the BBC Persian figure of 210 deaths is accurate – with the total number of reported cases in Iran currently at 388 – these most recent figures would push the disease’s mortality rate to a shocking 54.12 per cent in Iran alone.

Alternatively, if China’s data on the virus is to be believed and the mortality rate is indeed 2.3 per cent, Iran’s unusually high death rate could also suggest a huge number of cases remain unreported in the country. The number of cases should be closer to 9130 than the 388 currently being reported by Iranian government officials.

The reality is you can’t trust the data from either China or Iran. Both are authoritarian countries that have no neutral public service which can be counted upon to just report the facts.

We probably won’t know the actual death rate until enough people have been infected and died in a non-authoritarian country. There are quite a few infections in South Korea and Italy but it is too early to tell, as you have to wait until people have recovered to work out the mortality rate. So far in Italy 21 have died and 46 recovered and in South Korea 17 dead and 27 recovered. But those ratios will drop as more recover.

Of course even a 2% mortality rate is huge.