The numbers

This shows what exponential growth looks like. Hopefully it will slow soon, as the lockdown takes effect.

In one week we’ve gone from 11 cases to 155. The daily growth for the last week has been:

  • 73%
  • 47%
  • 39%
  • 33%
  • 27%
  • 55%
  • 52%

If you take even the lowest daily growth of 27%, and apply forward you would be:

  • 31 Mar: 826
  • 7 Apr: 4,401

If the daily growth is 50%, then:

  • 31 Mar: 2,648
  • 7 Apr: 67,874

But if the measures work and the rate slows to 10% then:

  • 31 Mar: 302
  • 7 Apr: 647

So let’s hope they work.

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