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March 31, 2020 8:00am by Kokila Patel

General Debate 31 March 2020

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PhilBest

A version of this open letter and its five crucial questions needs to be directed to Jacinda Ardern and many other western leaders.

Open Letter from Professor Sucharit Bhakdi to German Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel

https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

Dear Chancellor,

“As Emeritus of the Johannes-Gutenberg-University in Mainz and longtime director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology, I feel obliged to critically question the far-reaching restrictions on public life that we are currently taking on ourselves in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

It is expressly not my intention to play down the dangers of the virus or to spread a political message. However, I feel it is my duty to make a scientific contribution to putting the current data and facts into perspective – and, in addition, to ask questions that are in danger of being lost in the heated debate.

The reason for my concern lies above all in the truly unforeseeable socio-economic consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe and which are also already being practiced on a large scale in Germany…”

The whole thing is a must-read, but here are the five questions:
1. Statistics. Do the official projections make a distinction between symptom-free infected people and actual, sick patients – i.e. people who develop symptoms?
2. Dangerousness. How does the current workload of intensive care units with patients with diagnosed COVID-19 compare to other coronavirus infections (SEE NOTE), and to what extent will this data be taken into account in further decision-making by the government?
3. Dissemination. Has there already been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?
4. Mortality. Have we simply followed the trend of a COVID-19 general suspicion and is it intended to continue this categorisation uncritically as in other countries? How, then, is a distinction to be made between genuine corona-related deaths and coincidental virus presence at the time of death?
5. Comparability. What efforts are being made to make the population aware of elementary differences between nations and to make people understand that scenarios like those in Italy or Spain are not realistic here?

NOTE: Roussel et al: “SARS-CoV-2: Fear Versus Data” (Mar 19)
“…Four common coronaviruses are in current circulation and cause millions of cases worldwide. This article compares the incidence and mortality rates of these four common coronaviruses with those of SARS-COV-2 in OECD countries. It is concluded that the problem of SARS-COV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing…the SARS-COV-2 virus should not be ascribed a significantly higher risk potential than the already circulating corona viruses…”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32201354

“The already circulating corona viruses” – that the MSM and politicians completely ignore both in the past and present.
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March 31, 2020 8:00am
- PhilBest
  
  The Professor’s last point, “comparability”, is particularly relevant to New Zealand, even more so than Germany.
  
  Northern Italy is one of the most air-polluted locations in the “first” world, assessed by the WHO as responsible for thousands of premature deaths per annum. This includes proven increased risk from viral infections.
  
  Elderly population, 25% of which is over 64 years in age.
  
  An outlier-high proportion of elderly living with younger generations under the same roof.
  
  A shortfall of Intensive-Care capacity compared to other first world nations.
  
  To which points made by the Professor, I add:
  
  High-density multi-storey housing that is old, run-down and insanitary. Constructed of stone and masonry which are notoriously bad for damp.
  
  A low rate of heat pump / air conditioner use, and reliance on coal or wood fires indoors.
  
  High rates of smoking.
  
  Massive flows of seasonal workers from China at the crucial time period.
  
  “Anti-xenophobia” virtue-signalling over social distancing and isolation of affected migrant-worker populations.
  
  To conclude: the fear factor has been driven to a great extent by Television footage of overwhelmed ICU facilities in Northern Italy. But there are good grounds for scepticism that this overwhelming is going to be replicated everywhere. The calculations on “flattening the curve” are all based on the assumption that we must avoid overwhelming ICU capacity even if long term damage to the economy is the result. But the curve may in fact peak lower in some countries than it was in Italy, and there is also good grounds to believe that “herd immunity” will be the cause of the curve peaking and falling before ICU facilities are overwhelmed.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:02am
  - PhilBest
    
    “Ground zero” in the USA is New York; the Municipal City itself, not the surrounding urban area of millions more people in very low density suburban municipalities. Suburban sprawl is humanity’s friend in this pandemic. New York City has some features comparable to Northern Italy. Its urban density is even higher in places.
    
    The NYC administration virtue-signalled over a large Chinatown festival in February, encouraging people to attend it to demonstrate their opposition to “xenophobia”.
    
    NYC’s infamous “rent control” laws has resulted in much rental housing being run-down and crowded, being a disincentive to provision of rental housing, especially new and renewed rental housing.
    
    Even NYC, however, still has a “stockpile” of thousands of ICU beds and ventilators, “awaiting the peak”. It could be better known that the USA has several times as many ICU beds per capita as Italy, or Britain. More than Germany, the only large nation that comes close.
    
    It is possible that due to an absence of several of the Northern-Italy factors, the peak will arrive without overwhelming these facilities. One hospital at least has started testing “all arrivals” including accident-injured people and discovered startlingly high rates of non-symptomatic COVID-19 infection, suggesting herd immunity is already on the way.
    
    A Wall Street Journal article a few days ago by two experts with similar arguments to the German Professor, used data from a very few occurrences (all that are available so far) of “control group testing” that support the hypothesis that the rate of “unknown infections” is extremely high and not leading to significant rates of death or serious illness.
    
    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/03/coronavirus_stats.html/comment-page-1#comment-2668972
    
    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/03/coronavirus_stats.html/comment-page-1#comment-2668984
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:04am
  - Sacha
    
    There’s usually an upside to even the most difficult situations. Listen to the audio too.
    
    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/mercedes-amg-f1-ventilator-cpap-covid-19/
    
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    March 31, 2020 2:50pm
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  Jacinda will never understand all of that. It needs to be converted into kindy-speak
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:30am
  - All_on_Red
    
    Oh, Be Kind
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:32am
    - cmm
      
      He is being kind.
      
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      March 31, 2020 8:47am
      - Tall Man
        
        Too kind!
        
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        March 31, 2020 9:19am
    - Steve Otto(North Shore)
      
      I was
      
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      March 31, 2020 11:26am
  - Alboy
    
    More to the point, one might suspect she doesn’t want to understand it, we have a socialist state in just two short weeks.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:00am
  - Paulus Gnome
    
    Has she got crayons in her isolation pack? Finger paint?
    
    Some of her gubbermint utterances indicate a good stock of vegetables who seem to be talking to her . . .
    
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    March 31, 2020 11:54am
- cmm
  
  The comparability is very interesting just within Italy.
  
  Far the worst region is Lombardy. Other areas (particularly in the south) have far fewer infections. Why is that?
  
  For example Calabria (the bit across the ankle of the boot, with sea on both sides – a bit like NZ) has only 31 deaths out of a population of 2 million = 15 per million.
  
  Why does Calabria (Southern Italy) have 15 deaths per million and Lombardia (Northern Italy) have 680 deaths per million?
  
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:46am
  - MT_Tinman
    
    Statistics show there is an annual spike in respiratory related deaths in Northern Italy about now and that the numbers this year are similar to normal.
    
    I suspect the UK may be similar, with deaths spiking with the start of colder weather.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:01am
    - cmm
      
      Yup, died with, not died from.
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:12am
    - Blackbob
      
      You did know they are now coming into Spring & Summer in the UK?
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:16am
      - cmm
        
        These are mainly very old people with two or three serious underlying conditions (heart, diabetes, lungs etc).
        
        You can’t expect them to wait until next flu season to pop their clogs. They won’t make it.
        
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        March 31, 2020 10:23am
      - MT_Tinman
        
        They’ve just experienced a cold spell quite normal at the end of winter.
        
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        March 31, 2020 10:27am
    - PhilBest
      
      The pollution inherent in high urban density, and a lot of ancient unrenewed housing, and crowding in places, are issues that the UK shares with Northern Italy. Oh, and the low rate of ICU beds per capita. Then virtually any “global” city like London or New York has the “travel exposure” factor like Northern Italy got from its imported workforces. Another disturbing possibility is that very high energy costs in the UK mean that vulnerable people are unable to keep their home environments optimum. A higher death rate from this already, is like a dirty little secret in the circles that support the pretexts for the high energy costs.
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:21am
  - lifesgood
    
    This is well documented. In order to maximise profits Italian fashion houses imported hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers to work in Chinese owned factories in Lombardy. The fashion houses could then put “Made in Italy” labels on their garments. An absolute rort. The Chinese were mainly from Wuhan and many flew backwards and forwards, especially to celebrate Chinese New Year.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:04am
    - Odakyu-sen
      
      “Made in Italy” = “Made by China”
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:37am
    - krazykiwi
      
      Florence even launched a ‘Hug a Chinese’ Day initiative after Trump announced China travel restrictions.
      
      See what happens when wokeness and TDS overrides sensible public health actions. Leaders in northern Italy should be in the dock.
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:42am
      - cmm
        
        “Leaders in northern Italy should be in the dock.”
        
        I think the Mafia have more direct methods.
        
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        March 31, 2020 10:38am
      - Classic Liberal
        
        On top of the fact that in my experience Asians would not want any hugging by strangers!
        
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        March 31, 2020 6:05pm
    - kwkiwigirl
      
      Thanks for this. I googled Chinese workers in the Italian fashion industry. This does not even cross our radar here in NZ. The article will shock you.
      https://ww.fashionnetwork.com/news/made-in-italy-by-chinese-workers,377237.html
      
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      March 31, 2020 2:25pm
  - rightoverlabour
    
    The virus is scared of the Mafia….
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:33am
    - alex Masterley
      
      It is the ‘Ndrangheta in Calabria.
      Far worse than the Mafia.
      The virus is rightly scared of them.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:16am
      - Jack5
        
        The extreme Right seems to be bounding back in Italy, and Mussolini clamped down hard on the Mafia.
        
        This led to many Mafiosos fleeing to America, where they fuelled the gang corruption in America’s Prohibition days.
        
        https://historycollection.co/rise-mob-12-people-events-created-american-mafia/3/
        
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        March 31, 2020 1:32pm
    - Vory v zakone
      
      Killary Clinton: If I was President the Coronavirus would have committed suicide by now 😉
      
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      March 31, 2020 6:40pm
- Morphyoss
  
  So in this blog there seems to be two clear camps forming:
  
  1. The restriction measures are over the top and way out of proportion camp
  
  2. The restrictions were not put in place hard or fast enough camp.
  
  Both are ways to find fault with the government’s approach, which is fair. But you cannot have it both ways i guess.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:01am
  - pdm
    
    Actually Morphy I think there is a third camp which is the one I sit in. That is:
    
    We were too slow closing the borders and should have had a much firmer enforcement of the isolation and quarantine of visitors/incoming travellers which has meant that we have gone over the top with the lock down.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:15am
    - curry4me
      
      pdm: Yeah, I’m in that camp.
      
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      March 31, 2020 1:47pm
  - notreadyet
    
    I say both are correct, they didnt go anywhere hard and fast enough at the boarder and what we have now is a consequence
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:26am
    - Paulus
      
      Simply – Too Little Too Late.
      
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      March 31, 2020 1:26pm
  - Tall Man
    
    You miss a vital part of the story.
    
    Some of the measures are too severe and some were too late.
    
    Border closing with massive testing has still not happened. Isolation was not properly done and still isn’t. Testing was massively inadequate and still is. The lockdown is a massive over reaction and will prove as such and the actual “nastiness” of the virus has been blown out of all proportion.
    
    We should have tested a sample of the population before this lockdown was imposed, not just those that were likely to have direct contact with a diagnosed victim, but everyone in the sample to see the level of spread as I think the horse has long bolted.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:29am
    - pdm
      
      Tall man – that is exactly what I was inferring.
      
      `Some of the measures are too severe and some were too late.’
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:43am
      - Tall Man
        
        Yep, I’m in your camp.
        
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        March 31, 2020 2:08pm
    - Ed Snack
      
      Hard to test in time – with the current tests taking at least 5 days to give a result. Add to that the lack of capacity to test.
      
      But that doesn’t mean that right now, they 8should* be conducting a random sample test to establish just how prevalent the virus is in the population. Until they have a reasonable estimate of that any measures they take are based on pure guesswork. Which is not a good way to make important decisions.
      
      And masks – obtain a sufficient supply of masks and distribute them. then make it clear that people are expected to wear masks outside when in contact with strangers. Places where mask wearing is widespread have a much, much lower incidence of infection. The masks don’t prevent all aerosols containing the virus from affecting people, but they do reduce the number enough to bring the R0 down from 3-4 to 1 or less. And once below 1 the spread basically stops.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:43am
      - marcw
        
        Just a slight correction Ed, and not to divert from your main comment. The current test (gene probe PCR) has a turnaround time of 48 hours or less.
        
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        March 31, 2020 10:53am
  - rightoverlabour
    
    I would argue that the lockdown is necessary, but that it is over the top. I would argue that the borders should have been closed and the schools shut down. The list of essential services should have been longer ( Like Canada), this would also have protected the economy better. The police should pull their heads in. And they need to get rid of that patronising woman warning us we are in stage 4 of the lock down…
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:36am
  - Simon
    
    No the position was the Wuhan virus was somewhat serious but not the Black Death. That the China travel ban was warranted 2 February – (thanks Trump Admin) which basically saved Auckland from being an epicenter- but there was no screening and isolation of people arriving from other locations. That there was no testing.
    
    That with the China travel ban NZ entered into a recession in February – that there were no measures to assist the economy after the China travel ban. In February. Only half arsed measures in March.
    
    There was no urgency by the Ardern government to handle the virus from 2 February until over the top, the cat is out of the bag unnecessary Home Detention.
    
    That the Ardern government seem to think everything was fine including promoting the mass gathering at Chirstchurch mid March then barely a week later order Home Detention for everyone.
    
    The Home Detention utterly destroying the economy already in recession and attempting to cover up Ardern’s Wuhan virus inaction during February well into March.
    
    Saving lives didnt seem so important for February
    well into March. For eg On 17 March the Mof E said going to school was fine.
    
    The messaging is appalling and people are sick of her BS.
    
    Its the grinding relentless incompetence of it all.
    
    The grinding incompetence will continue until there is a change of government.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:37am
  - bruceavon
    
    Yes. For ages comment was Ardern was too slow and soft on this, and now it is we have a military state and are wrecking the economy. I started off thinking wrecking the world because of this disease was madness. I sided with Boris who favoured the herd approach and even Trump, who minimised the treat, a man who I do not like at all. Now having looked a the data and modelling I agree with the lockdown. The other point I would make is that if we had a National government the indications are they would have gone earlier and harder. There is zero chance we would not be in lockdown with them.
    At the end of all of this people can analyse whether we should have shut the world down or not. But it would take a very radical government to ignore the world and just keep the country open for business – come what may. It would have been a suicide move for whoever tried it. So we are stuck with this and might as well make the best of it. I hope they open more shops for a weekend after a while. So I can go and buy a bunch of stuff to keep going. Might as well paint the house. Plant a vege garden. Looks like we will be here for months.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:14am
    - Wangas Feral
      
      Plant a vege garden. LOL. Dumb fucks will be planting cherry tomatoes and wondering why they are starving.
      
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      March 31, 2020 11:16am
- KevO'Brien
  
  If an amateur number cruncher like me can come up with what the Prof says, why can’t the rest of those who pose as scientists? Is their pay more important than their integrity? The ultimate reckoning won’t be a pretty sight. Putting political viewpoints above honesty is a variant on treason.
  
  Advice is not advice when filtered through political activist spectacles.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:04am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    I get the feeling very few folks in the CoL are capable of performing some 6th Form (Year 12) calculus.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:10am
- freethinker
  
  More relevant information in that short comment than the entire diatribe vomited by the assistant part time pm and her acolytes.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:41am
- Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
  
  looks like the technical group has increased testing criteria……none if lamestream asking how does this compare to sth korea and taiwan criteria whose early and high volume testing has been key to control of community spread. dont know who is thicker- media or pm.
  
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  March 31, 2020 3:16pm
krazykiwi

Yesterday on LinkedIn, Helen Clark posted a big ups to Jacdina for her leadership. Lots of people who presumably believe leadership is about saying nice things or looking empathetic joined in with a psychopathic chorus of praise.

It was good to see others, presumably those who understand the leadership is about making wise, selfless decisions for the benefit of those being led, responding with well warranted criticism.

There was one response comment by Ms Clark herself that really angers me. I’ll quote it:

So true – an economy can recover, but people cannot be brought back from the dead. In NZ, we have our priorities right

This is the kind of deliberately inaccurate message we’re seeing promulgated in support of the stasi-like world that we’re now living in. The actions instigated by Ardern are right now leading to human misery, poverty, the destruction of wealth, mental and emotional trauma, and the decades of damage done to our economy. She is responsible for the harm being caused. The buck stops with her, not matter how many people the our former PM try to cast those who question Ardern leadership as flinty-hearted and money focused.

I have a message for Ms Clark: My politics are vastly different from your own, but I respect that you led strongly. Quietly, you must be rather disappointed Ardern’s ineptitude.
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March 31, 2020 8:00am
- SJ Actual
  
  Yesterday my sister and a brother in law were made redundant. Very few companies will be hiring in the foreseeable future, so the future is gloomy for them. Worse when they are stuck at home with nothing to do but ponder their fate.
  This will be replicated hundreds of thousands of times in NZ along.
  We may very well find that the cure is worse than the disease.
  There will certainly be many left alive but who never recover.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:23am
  - kiwiracer
    
    Hopefully the government are also already contemplating the recovery phase. . .sic
    
    I have a couple of suggestions:
    
    Halt all incoming refugees. . .we can’t afford them
    
    Reassess all work visa’s, if a company is considering redundancies then the work visa employees go first.
    
    Stop all overseas financial aid, including the climate change rort.
    
    Now is the time to become more nationalistic, to look after ourselves, the globalistic, diversity fueled rhetoric needs to stop.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:32am
    - freethinker
      
      [Deleted – mod.]
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:45am
  - Odakyu-sen
    
    So many Kiwis remain alive as a result of the government’s actions — but they will never recover.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:39am
  - coge
    
    Clark realises the wheels can very quickly fall off this Govt, due to their compulsory removal of our most basic freedoms. Due to a situation enabled by this Govt over the last six week. The longer this avoidable predicament continues the greater the demand for answers will become.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:39am
- cmm
  
  The Clark person cannot be that stupid:
  
  “So true – an economy can recover, but people cannot be brought back from the dead. ”
  
  The people who will die are almost exclusively old people already at death’s door. They were already sliding off their perches.
  
  Even if they 100% survive Covid they will almost all be long dead from other causes long before the economy is fixed (especially by this mob).
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:51am
  - kowtow
    
    Aborted babies can’t be either. 13000 a year.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:40am
  - amospicton
    
    People will die from the lockdown and its effects on the economy and therefore NZers. Virtually all are being adversely impacted. Absolutely no doubt about that. The issue someone needs to address is which is worse – the cure or the disease? I’ve seen absolutely nothing from the govt on this, let alone the media which is continually celebrating the great job being done in NZ. We need to be thinking about what is best for NZ in the long run, and that’s a wider issue than whether Jacinda is kinder than ScoMo, laughing at the situation in the US and even minimising deaths from covid-19.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:27am
  - cmm
    
    Even if they dodge the Covid bullet, many of those sick people that Clark is supposedly worried about will not even live to vote in the election.
    
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    March 31, 2020 3:15pm
- rockape
  
  She was!
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:52am
- Durden
  
  “an economy can recover, but people cannot be brought back from the dead”. That is the very rich and out-of-touch socialist/communist Helen Clark showing her ignorance of the impact of the current shutdown on majority of NZers.
  
  Its the equivalent of her saying “let them eat cake”. Apart from local examples of redundancy quoted here, Clark needs to look at the impact of what is happening in India where PM Modi blindly followed the WHO diktats and has without much warning implemented a lock down.
  
  https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nishitajha/india-coronavirus-lockdown-migrant-workers
  
  And it is not just migrant workers suffering, but all other permanent day-wage earners living in the slums an roadside. Ripe conditions for a communist “people’s” revolution.
  
  The difference between India and NZ is just a matter of degree and social welfare support. The cost of social welfare which will have a huge and long term impact on NZs people and economy. Imagine a debt 50-100% of GDP and the consequent increase in taxes for little NZ. This sets off a series of events that will lead to us needing a bailout. Who will do that ? Welcome to our overlords — the communist China .
  
  Excessive focus on “we will not leave one person behind” is a costly and emotional stance. Its also partisan cheer leading. Not at all statesmanlike. She needs to shut-up and up her meds.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:07am
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    Simple fix bro. Slap taxes on rich pricks. Which idiot gummit will raise minimum wage by $1.20 an hour when jobs are falling out like Autumn leaves….Look at Air NZ…
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:24am
    - DeepBlue
      
      We are stuck too, who would skip off to Australia for work in the next year or two?(even if they could get flights)
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:43am
      - Maggy Wassilieff
        
        I think quite a few folks will…
        
        Australia will always have a bigger, more diversified economy than ours.
        
        There’s always work for tradies over there.
        
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        March 31, 2020 10:17am
      - Jack5
        
        Maggy, when NZ’s population diverges too much from Australia’s the back door provided by visa-less entry will close.
        
        Still, there likley will be temporary work visas for those whose job skills are needed in Australia. In the periodic economic downturns they will be shipped back to New Zealand.
        
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        March 31, 2020 1:24pm
  - coge
    
    “Spread the word” Which spread this disease.
    
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120478908/coronavirus-former-pm-helen-clark-says-window-is-closing-for-kiwi-travellers-overseas
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:35am
    - Nickc2
      
      @Jack5
      You are correct. Australia can at any time require NZers to have work visas issued for a purpose and time. They can then treat NZers the same as we treat Pacific Islanders coming here for seasonal work.
      We can then thank Cindy and Helen Clark for those acts of kindness.
      
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      March 31, 2020 1:55pm
      - Tall Man
        
        But with a hug 🙂
        
        0 0
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        March 31, 2020 6:55pm
      - Nickc2
        
        @Tall Man
        I am particular, not peculiar.
        
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        March 31, 2020 8:08pm
- Tall Man
  
  Batman flicked a similar “either or” the other day.
  
  They are both wrong.
  
  It is not a simple choice between destroying the economy or killing thousands of people. Both are extremes but only one is likely and it ain’t saint ardern saving 80,000 lives.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:34am
  - krazykiwi
    
    Yes, those trying to paint a “deaths vs the economy” are either woefully ignorant or willfully naive. The economy is a proxy for the overall health of a nation. It is a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. A wrecked economy is symptomatic of poverty, hardship, social unrest, poor health, suicides and general misery.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:06am
- KevO'Brien
  
  Be kind is what we tell 4 year olds.
  Stand up and do what is needed is how adults are addressed.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:05am
mikenmildagain

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Happy World Backup Day!
It’s also the International Transgender Day of Visibility. The jokes combining these two holidays will almost write themselves…
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March 31, 2020 8:01am
- Crisplion
  
  Mikenmild, I don’t make personalised negative comments on this or any other forum, but for the first time ever I’m going to make an exception for you.
  
  After your nasty, authoritarian comment on the thread about police overreach, I’ve decided that henceforth, instead of reading your comments and taking them in good humour, from now on I will downtick you without reading.
  
  F off Mikenmild, I’m done with you.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:15am
  - Tall Man
    
    You’ll enjoy his pithy response ……. I don’t think.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:31am
  - krazykiwi
    
    I agree. In [very light] defense of leftist sycophants like Mikenmild, can you imagine the internal angst they must suffer of having to continue their partisan defense of a regime that has just placed you under house arrest?
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:46am
    - Tall Man
      
      Or realise that their hatred of Trump is based on ………………………… shaky reasoning.
      
      8 1
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      March 31, 2020 2:19pm
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
    That’s great – my comments are ‘nasty’, but you have no problems with Kiwibloggers comparing our police to the Stasi or Gestapo…
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:53am
    - Tall Man
      
      Are you a policeman? If not then why should you be personally offended.
      
      I think you and I are both blessed with an ability to ring someone’s bell. I have numerous comments deleted with the gist of the argument because I call someone a sycophant or say they’re an arsehole. I’m not wrong when I use it but it doesn’t pass the “sniff” test for a sensitive soul.
      
      I have never been offended by your comments and while I would say I’d smile if you were offended by mine but I’ll bet you never have an never will.
      
      I do think you sell yourself short and the people on this blog when you bite without putting an alternative argument or even a justification. Your TDS is a not uncommon ailment on this blog or even in the media but I would say you should look at those that have a similar position and wonder …….
      
      Now you and others may well chuckle at me making some of these particular suggestions to you but let me say I really couldn’t give a toss whether you absorb, reject or just ignore my comment as I generally do the same for yours 😉
      
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      March 31, 2020 2:18pm
    - Vory v zakone
      
      Cap’n Snark and Bark hits the WHAT ABOUT, WHAT ABOUT, WHAT ABOUT button. Again
      
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      March 31, 2020 6:45pm
- kloyd0306
  
  Men are from Mars, women are from Venus. All the other bullshit genders are from Uranus.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:56am
burt

Have our darling politicians approved a process for Chinese billionaires to bail out economy yet?
33 2
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March 31, 2020 8:02am
- igm
  
  Burt: When unelected leaders cannot even make firm sensible decisions, I should think they have not considered offending China.
  When they are enlisting narks to implement their piss-weak regulations it makes one wonder why they don’t get to hell out of politics . . . they have failed.
  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/wanganui-chronicle/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503426&objectid=12320988
  This is a real gutless left-wing way of operating enlisting the help of envious layabout losers to carry the can.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:15am
- kowtow
  
  Peter Williams really pushed Robbo the other day on who’d be buying our bonds , Robbo staedfastly refused to say “China”.
  
  It would be interesting to see who does buy up all the wests’ sovereign debt , not to mention private debt when this clusterfuck smashes home.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:44am
- KevO'Brien
  
  Expect more subtlety. The RBNZ exchanges debt with the BIS for special drawing rights. Other central banks do similarly. Who then owns the world?
  It’s, going to/could do, get very interesting.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:10am
Michael NZ

There must be a reckoning!

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devastating-lies/
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March 31, 2020 8:02am
- SGA
  
  “a reckoning”. Ok, what do you have in mind?
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:21am
  - Critical Thinker
    
    Economic sanctions must be placed on the Chinese government at the very least.
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on4AhVmy9As
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:31am
    - KevO'Brien
      
      Yeah, start WWIII!
      Is it just possible that someone other than China created a virus designed to be very effective against a genetically susceptible population who might be about to knock them off their self proclaimed world leader status?
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:16am
      - Tall Man
        
        Vanuatu?
        
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        March 31, 2020 2:22pm
    - curry4me
      
      Critical Thinker: Don’t wait for governments to do this. Leave all the Chinese stuff on the shelf when the lockdown ends. Ask store managers to source goods from elsewhere. Offer to pay up to 20% more. I was boycotting Chinese goods before the CCP virus, based on their human rights record.
      
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      March 31, 2020 1:57pm
  - Michael NZ
    
    Well your sanctimonious one liner drive buys for a start. 🙂
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:33am
    - Michael NZ
      
      4 SGA
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:40pm
- Critical Thinker
  
  China lied, thousands of people died.
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hR_nuUyplk
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:24am
  - Raphael
    
    As this man says: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3tnH4FGbd0
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:43am
  - Simon
    
    Anyone promoting the CCP in the future is a Quisling.
    
    Either they have been bribed, corrupted someway or black mail. CCP values are not NZ’s values.
    
    NZ’s future isnt China. NZ can sell its commodities – at prices set internationally, into other markets other than China.
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:47am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      NZ’s future isnt China.
      
      Yes it is, along with India, S.Korea, Japan, Vietnam Indonesia, Taiwan, Phillipines and Australia.
      
      If our economy is to rebuild fast, Money, equipment, materials and expertise will flow in from these countries…and we will grab it all.
      The USA/Europe and Britain will not be looking in our direction.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:27am
      - kloyd0306
        
        Yes, Princess Frowny-face made trade with USA much more unlikely.
        As a former president of International Socialist Youth, it’s no wonder she has no desire to criticise China.
        
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        March 31, 2020 11:01am
      - Simon
        
        MG – NZ’s future isnt China.
        
        Yes it is, along……..
        
        Sorry Maggy if a NZ business in the future says that China is a material component of their business then they dont actually have a business its just pure speculation.
        
        China risk assessment prices it out.
        
        Shareholders & credit managers will say given the instability of China it doesnt warrant investment or lending. Once every 10 or 15 years there will be a China wipe out and all equity is gone and that is left is insolvency.
        
        China aint an option anymore. It is a badly run lying shit hole with no trust and no future.
        
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        March 31, 2020 11:30am
      - freethinker
        
        Not often I disagree with you Maggie but the US/UK/NZ/Australia/Canada will quietly cooperate and I suspect India will join in as bastions of democracy and others will follow as they see progress and success. Less sure about many European nations who may cling to a failing EU or too far gone for a speedy recovery like Italy. Encouraging that Trump called Putin and we may see more alignment of interest between Russia and the West should China continue its growing military muscle
        unnecessarily and flout international agreements.
        
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        March 31, 2020 11:49am
      - OTGO
        
        Agree Maggy. China saved us from GFC, they’ll save us from this. And by saved I mean economically.
        You can hate on them all you like but they need our protein so we should give it to them by the tonne.
        
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        March 31, 2020 11:54am
      - Maggy Wassilieff
        
        @simon
        
        I’m more than willing to recognise that the mass of Chinese citizens are not the CCP.
        
        There are millions of highly educated, able folk throughout Asia who can and will run with any opportunity available to them.
        
        While we support a large cohort of the population to lead unproductive, destructive lives, we are never going to get our economy back on an independent footing.
        
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        March 31, 2020 12:01pm
      - Jack5
        
        Maggy, are you referring to retaining ownership of NZ assets, as opposed to trade with China?
        
        China has been trying to buy industry assets upstream around the world, and South America and Australia has seen the same Chinese investment in agricultural assets as NZ has.
        
        Here in NZ, China has taken control (50 per cent with the other half diversely held) of one of the country’s two major meat producers, of a number of milk processors, and of smaller interests such as the one that owned the pastoral seeds developed in NZ over a century.
        
        The latest suggestion has been Chinese finance to build a port at Marsden Point, ostensibly to service China trade with South America under China’s belt and road initiative.
        
        This is bullshit. It would be like New Zealand building a port at the Chathams to facilitate NZ trade with Australia.
        
        There have a number of debt traps created by Chinese ports, including in Sri Lanka and Vanuatu. In the economic hard times to come, pray let us consider these:
        
        The Sri Lanka port trap:
        
        https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
        
        The Vanuatua port:
        
        https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-great-wharf-from-china-raising-eyebrows-across-the-pacific-20180411-p4z8yu.html
        
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        March 31, 2020 2:20pm
    - Michael NZ
      
      good point Simon.
      The National Party have a problem.
      
      Too many of their people are in bed with the Chicoms. Not just Shipley and Crusher Collins.
      There is a Chinese Intelligence agent in the National Party Caucus (once in always in).
      
      The question I ask is “where does it stop”?
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:44pm
- emmess
  
  China repatriated medical equipment from western countries and knowingly sent faulty medical equipment instead.
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSdQPtciBRg
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:46am
- Fletch
  
  China must not be allowed to continue operating any kind of laboratory or research facility that deals with infectious diseases or, in fact, any diseases at all. This is not the first time that viruses have escaped their labs. They are not careful enough in handling them.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:20am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Zoonotic diseases have been with us since humans evolved.
    New ones periodically emerge…(Ebola, Zika, HIV, SARs, MERS)
    
    Ancient ones include measles, & small pox
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/41759707_Origin_of_measles_virus_Divergence_from_rinderpest_virus_between_the_11th_and_12th_centuries
    
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    March 31, 2020 12:11pm
TWEEDSE

To solve the housing shortage, which I suspect has all but gone, we could park the now redundant cruise ships and use them as apartment blocks. I doubt they are going to be used for cruises anymore. Rebrand kiwibuild to a stationary kiwicruise.
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March 31, 2020 8:03am
- Tall Man
  
  Got a call last week asking me to buy a cruise ….
  
  I said I’m neither 90 nor seeking to die. I don’t think she got it but as I have admitted before, my humour often goes whoosh as a certain mod often shows.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:37am
  - Ed Snack
    
    So you’re not one of the “newly wed or nearly dead” as cruise ship passengers are labelled ?
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:48am
    - Tall Man
      
      Nope and I didn’t want to become one of the “newly dead” either 😉
      
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      March 31, 2020 2:25pm
WaveyDavey

Have we f*cked the global economy for decades for an overreaction?

If even Stuff is allowing someone to say this…

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat

Pretty much what Elers said a couple of days ago but got shot down for. Also point-for-point what a link I gave yesterday said but rehashed locally.
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March 31, 2020 8:04am
- yossarian
  
  That graph is telling. Those trumpeting that our govt has done well obviously are oblivious to that chart. We are actually doing very poorly, and what is telling is the early flatness can be put down to purely non-testing.
  
  The msm continue to lie to us, trying to convince us that we are in the best place to be right now; most clearly we are not. In fact, from the looks we are one of the worse
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:23am
  - Ruahine
    
    We are in this mess because the government allowed infected people to wander into NZ without being quarantined. I believe it was done for political reasons.
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:56am
    - Michael NZ
      
      .
      yes Ruahine.
      It was for the PM’s Photo shoot, on 15th March.
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:48pm
  - MCos
    
    It depends on what criteria you base success/failure.
    One death thus far and minimal people in hospital & ICU doesn’t seem too bad.
    Infection rate is very unreliable, it seems to me.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:05am
    - WaveyDavey
      
      That’s exactly the point.
      
      There is no accepted death rate – pretty much every country is measuring it differently.
      
      It seems that only Germany is being completely specific about C19 being the CoD. Italy for example treats every person who dies with C19 as a death from C19
      
      Germany excess death rate 0.3% / Italy 8%
      
      https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:23am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      It is still early days… check back in 3 weeks’ time.
      
      11 2
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      March 31, 2020 10:29am
    - WaveyDavey
      
      And right now, economically, we seem to be “destroying the village to save it”
      
      If your only measure of success is number of deaths and/or infection rate then why not just shut up shop forever – guaranteed no external viruses arriving so no infections and zero deaths.
      
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      March 31, 2020 12:23pm
  - notreadyet
    
    Two factors as I see it, encouraging all overseas to hurry home and then not doing full testing at the boarder causing our fast initial jump . Hopefully our saviour will be minimal and controlled community spread
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:39am
- Doubledimp
  
  You are talking about a financial cost. Remember there is a political cost to these decisions too (and with the weepy media prepared to parade grieving relatives on the six o’clock news, that is a big potential cost).
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:39am
  - WaveyDavey
    
    Indeed.
    
    Now these figures are purely fictitious:
    
    Let’s say 1,000 people are going to die from an illness.
    
    They could die in a month with no economic costs
    
    or
    
    They could die over 12 months with the economy closed
    
    What’s actually worse? The same number are dead but with one you still have a functioning economy
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:18am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      Yep,
      The implementation of any Pandemic Plan needs an accompanying economic plan.
      
      Just a bit difficult to see how the rest of the World’s economies are going to spin during the next year or so.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:32am
      - WaveyDavey
        
        Well my spidey-sense tells me that China is going to be sitting pretty at the end of this.
        
        Everyone else? Not so much
        
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        March 31, 2020 12:27pm
      - Tall Man
        
        “Spin” is the word Maggy and the spin doctors will be burning the midnight oil to turn ardern’s lies into “reality”.
        
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        March 31, 2020 2:28pm
  - Bell-47
    
    The restrictions at this level are ridiculous. I have a small business, each person can work a day each, alone. I have orders waiting to be made yet, I am unable to make them..it’s ridiculous.
    
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    March 31, 2020 12:07pm
    - Tall Man
      
      Don’t be such an arsehole …. There’s a bank of cindy selfies you can tap into which are bound to be collector items really really soon. Grab a dozen or two and send them instead along with a few “Hugz” vouchers.
      
      I think, not only will your customers be thrilled to bits, they’ll double their orders for next month so you be super well off.
      
      Have you not been watching the telly?
      
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      March 31, 2020 2:32pm
- Simon
  
  Its what comes after Home Detention ends will decide things. Past performance indicates its not going to be good.
  
  The Ardern government has no policy successes. Thats not going to change at the end of April. There isnt going to be some switch and Ardern suddenly gets things right. Its gonna be bad.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:40am
  - Inandout
    
    Simon, as Key said to Hosking this morning, how does the government get out of this? Go back to level 3, or 2, then what? Interesting to hear that China has come through this and is getting back to normal production. I get the impression we are now being led by a ship of fools.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:26am
    - Captain Mainwaring
      
      What do you mean now? The ship of fools has been in charge since 2017.
      
      16 1
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      March 31, 2020 11:25am
      - Nickc2
        
        What are we going to use to buy all this Chinese crap when it gets here? When our illustrious Finance Minister gets his Universal Basic Wage in place, NZers won’t have any money left over from basic living etc to buy Chinese stuff from a $2 shop.
        Oh, about that new car you were going to buy this year, forget it! Comrade Cindy will decide who has cars and us peasants don’t stand a shit show in hell. Get used to it. Also keep in mind that any house(s) or land you currently own, you can’t sell same or pass them on to your kids. These will become the property of the state of the Peoples Republic of Ao-te-a-rower (once the politburo have picked out what they want).
        
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        March 31, 2020 1:30pm
- MCos
  
  Another article that appears after the die has been cast.
  He suggests Sweden is steering a more sensible course.
  They have a bit over double our population and thus far 146 deaths including 36 yesterday, with over three hundred serious/critical cases.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:25am
  - Tall Man
    
    And your point?
    
    Look into the deaths. Look into the migrant ghettos see if you can spot the difference and don’t tell me deaths don’t have a fiscal measure.
    
    Many government decisions use that fiscal value in decision making, including saint ardern.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:42am
  - Martin Williams
    
    Yeah, it didn’t sound like the Swedish Health chief was too confident. He kind of just shrugged and said, “we’ll see”.
    
    And at the time of the article, last Friday, they were in the process of increasing restrictions…
    
    …wait for Tall Man to make this about Labour Party rape culture though.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:41am
    - Tall Man
      
      Thank you martin. That’s the first time you have acknowledged that such a culture exists.
      
      Admitting there is a problem is the first step in finding a solution so I suggest you confide in any women that are still close to you and see what measures they can assist you with in ridding yourself of the victim blaming attitude you displayed recently.
      
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      March 31, 2020 2:36pm
- KevO'Brien
  
  It should be obvious to any novice maths trainee or statistician.
  MMT economist proponents don’t care–destructive activity is also included in GDP.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:20am
Scott

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat

Some good stuff here from Stuff, of all places?
Highlights include – are we using a sledgehammer to squash a flea?
-the deaths in Italy, are all of them due to the virus or given significant other morbidities, die they die with the virus?
In other words are the deaths in Italy overinflated?
The virtual putting of the whole of NZ under house arrest is an unprecedented step. Is it a step way too far?
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March 31, 2020 8:04am
- SGA
  
  It’s funny. Over the last week, there has been outrage on KB that we are doing too little too late, and also that we are grossly overreacting. Both sides are quoting this article here, this article there, to support their positions.
  Which mistake should world governments be making? Treating this more seriously than they should, or taking it too casually?
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:27am
  - Michael NZ
    
    no it’s not funny.
    4000 odd Chinese from Wuhan entered the USA a month since January.
    When the Chinese already knew it was person to person in December.
    How many did we let in ftom overseas?
    
    The Lockdown is because Jacinda et al didn’t act when they should and were waiting for her March 15 moment in the spotlight.
    
    So it is not funny.
    People are losing their jobs, their futures are possibly badly intefered with.
    It is not funny.
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:37am
    - Tricati
      
      No its not funny,and like you, I believe the virus was already here but the 15 March hug feast was locked in and that was the priority – Not keeping NZer’s safe.
      With so many people and businesses now in dire straits, we really need the Bridges lead Select Committee to get to facts, and make them well known.
      
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      March 31, 2020 11:02am
  - PhilBest
    
    The response should be more targeted. Total economic halt will have worse consequences, maybe even for future suicide rates alone. We should be able to tell who are the tiny proportion of the population who might have died “a few hours, days, weeks, months or years” earlier because of COVID-19 being added to their known co-morbidity. So protect those people. The “herd immunity” hypothesis is the RIGHT ONE for everyone else!!!
    
    We can change policy to reflect this TOMORROW. Doesn’t even need 3 more weeks.
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:48am
    - Tall Man
      
      Let’s just say, for argument’s sake, that a “bubble” has been isolated for 2 weeks with no disease or symptoms emerging. Shouldn’t it be safe for that bubble to associate with similar bubbles.
      
      Now that only works for genuine “bubbles” where the isolation has been complete.
      
      Again, we have to rely on the honesty of the inhabitants of these bubbles and we all have seen examples of “bubble breaching” but surely to god those of us that have been isolated and are symptom free could associate, even if just in our own community.
      
      If not, why not?
      
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      March 31, 2020 2:42pm
  - Blackface Twin Reverb
    
    It’s all about the timing… ing, ing.
    
    10 1
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    March 31, 2020 8:54am
  - Critical Thinker
    
    They should do their jobs by keeping cool heads and not panicking. By looking at reliable data and listening to reliable experts. Especially the epidemiologists and economists.
    
    8 2
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    March 31, 2020 8:55am
  - cmm
    
    You can both do too little too late, then later overreact to “compensate”.
    
    THat is what we are seeing in NZ.
    
    First the border lockdown (most strict in the world Cindy told us! Hah!) was completely compromised by the desire to hold the 15 March hugfest.
    
    Further border lockdowns have been compromised by still letting in tens of infected people a day with inadequate screening and quarantining.
    
    That makes our “bubble” lockdowns a bit of a joke. All the effort (and financial losses) are being undermined by PriNZess and her inept crew.
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:58am
  - Lee C
    
    I don’t think this is a situation requiring one of two polar opposites for a response, SGA.
    
    My view is that many Governments are motivated by a fear that their health systems will be exposed as inadequate.
    
    However, beneath that, there is a quiet power-grab going on – pushing for erosions of liberties, amending laws about trading/tariffs etc and all the time 5G quietly being rolled out.
    
    The M.O. across the board has been to rule by fear, while telling people to ‘trust’ the authorities.
    
    But the Authorities don;t appear to ‘trust’ the people.
    
    I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but knowing that doesn’t justify simply accepting every line of tosh peddled by any Government.
    
    I’ve detected a tendency by people to exploit this virus as a means to peddle their own ideological bias. Some people – often the ones who are -dare I say it – the most passive and sheep-like – have swallowed every line disseminated from the Beehive WITHOUT QUESTION. Even, in some cases, with a sense of eagerness.
    
    Why, because ideologically, they endorse ‘State (even global) -collectivism’ and vote accordingly.
    
    How fortunate for them we are being ‘guided’ by a former President of the International Socialist Youth.
    
    Now, I may have a customised tin-foil hat, but it appears to me that this mentality, in which consensus has been thrown to the winds smacks of an ideological power-play.
    
    My mum, (bless her) said “They are pushing people as hard as they can to see how much they will take before they push back”.
    
    I suppose we will see on election day.
    
    Whenever that will be…
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:58am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Over the last week, there has been outrage on KB that we are doing too little too late, and also that we are grossly overreacting.
    
    And why should that surprise you?
    
    Kiwiblog is not an echo chamber.
    
    If some of you weren’t so quick off the mark to try and pull another poster down, but took the time to consider points being presented, you’d have discovered that fact ages ago.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:05am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    Global madness in high places. I’m waiting to see what happens next. Killing off the world economic activity and creating massive unpayable debt because of fear is unheard of. Is this an engineered world govt takeover scenario?
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:26am
- PhilBest
  
  The deaths in Italy are real, so far. Two things are overinflated. The assumption that lockdown, not herd immunity, is what determines “peak”.
  
  The second overinflated thing is predictions of deaths in NZ, based on deaths in Italy. It is now obvious, and should have been all along to experts that really are experts, that there are risk factors there that don’t exist here.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:52am
  - fernglas
    
    And vice versa. If cigarette smoking, morbid obesity and heart conditions are conditions which combine with covid-19 to cause deaths, then New Zealand is up there with the rest of them. What about insanitary, overcrowded housing/ And NZ is only heading into winter, not coming out of it.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:30am
  - MCos
    
    Judging by the wildly differing projections that various experts have come up with there is no ‘number of deaths’ anyone outside the scientific bubble can hang their hat on for any of the courses the government might take.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:31am
- Brian McDonald
  
  We might be using a sledgehammer to squash a flea Scott but until we know that for a fact we are exercising caution, damaging a hammer and missing a lot of fleas.
  I felt by what the Government said yesterday they are looking to how the ‘to unlock’ will be improvised. The figures tell us that bars and schools are low on the list for reopening and that perhaps re-opening with be the reverse of the shutdown. The supermarkets, gas stations and doctor’s surgeries give a model for opening up trade. On the last day before the lockdown, the local baker made the very good point, that the virus was not been transmitted b food, even at that point social distancing that would be adopted was being utilised naturally.
  Working from home must be financially encouraged as it reduces the number of possibilities of virus transfer. Suddenly the need for face to face meetings has become redundant.
  So I think questioning whether or not there should have been a lockdown is fruitless now, let the Royal Commission look at that – I suspect it will be determined as having been necessary in the circumstances, a battening down of the hatches. So looking back is for later, looking forward is for now.
  There are a lot of new innovations happening, they should be encouraged to get the country working again. Not that I eat pies very often, but it’s easy to imagine how the small local bakeries could be operating. In the meantime, the data being gathered now is telling its own story about how the virus has spread with the brakes are already on, they’ll be constructively let off when that is managed for the future.
  Saw on the news last night the industry talking about smaller produce suppliers not having access to markets – so bridges like that will be getting crossed as all parts of the economy come under focus.
  The Government has made minimum wage increases optional. Morrison has accepted that NZers in Aussie will be eligible for the work subsidy. The first opposition meeting happens today to consider the overall situation and put its thoughts forward. I heard Simon say on the news that the Col had adopted some of National’s suggestions before the lockdown which I recall he was in agreement with, so political scrutiny is alive and kicking.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:10am
  - Tall Man
    
    Brian, I think you ascribe vastly more intelligence to this government than they actually possess.
    
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    March 31, 2020 2:46pm
slightlyrighty

One of the comforting things about the COVID 19 stats is the very low rate of community transmission,

except….

people in this country are only being tested if they meet certain criteria, such as travel overseas or connection with someone who was. Someone who might be infected as a result of community transmission, who is only showing mild symptoms is not tested. There is a report on Stuff of one patient with COVID who refused testing twice before eventually being diagnosed.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120673031/coronavirus-patient-twice-refused-test-before-covid19-diagnosis

The goal is to stop community transfer, and the testing is being rationed in such a way that it will achieve that goal, regardless of the actual number of cases.

The criteria for tests needs to be widened to get a better picture.
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March 31, 2020 8:06am
- All_on_Red
  
  My wife went to her Doctor and got tested immediately
  Results back in under Two days- negative.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:35am
  - greybeard
    
    That is good.
    Of course, if she goes back in a week or so and has another test, she could then test positive !
    Surely testing is only of value if having tested negative then you are immediately vaccinated to ensure no future contamination is possible.
    With no vaccination available, negative results have limited value.
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:47am
    - Tall Man
      
      Vaccinated or isolated.
      
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      March 31, 2020 9:43am
- PhilBest
  
  As the German Professor said: it just needs an easily do-able completely random test of a representative subset of the entire population!!! Why is it that the authorities everywhere don’t want the information this would provide? Or are all the “experts” with decision making powers, actually too dam thick to even understand what this information would tell us?
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:55am
  - Brian Marshall
    
    Completely agree Phil, but I think it’s the lack of testing resources holding back the random testing of the community.
    
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    March 31, 2020 11:13am
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  And that is the point Prof Nick Wilson makes in this interview.
  https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018740842/coronavirus-14-000-could-die-in-nz-if-control-efforts-fail
  
  If we don’t extend testing for Covid-19 to each person presenting with respiratory /flu/cold symptoms then we won’t be able to tell how much community transmission has occurred and we won’t be able to model the progress of the virus with any degree of accuracy.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:10am
  - cmm
    
    Sure, that’s what you need to do to gather the data, bBut the reality is that they are not resourced at present to do that testing.
    
    If you want full data, then most people will need to be tested multiple times, let’s just say an average of twice.
    
    We can only do 1500 a day and have reagents for 100k tests or something like that, so increasing the testing rate is not that helpful.
    
    That means it would take 16 years to test everyone.
    
    Even if we just focus on the, say, 30%, that get colds etc this year, that is still 3 years.
    
    We can only think about testing once we have a far simpler, cheaper and faster testing method. There is one soon coming out of USA I believe.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:25am
  - Ed Snack
    
    Maggy, it is more than that, we need a random sample to see how many asymptomatic carriers there are. It seems that there is some uncertainty over how much spreading occurs from the symptom free carriers, but if there is any we do need an estimate of this population. Just testing on visible symptoms will never uncover the real presence – though it would certainly help restrict the spread as coughs/sneezes are the primary way the virus is shed it seems.
    
    Recent analysis suggest that the primary spread is direct via aerosols, secondary is aerosol contamination of surfaces followed by touching said surface. So – MASKS !
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:55am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      Maggy, it is more than that, we need a random sample to see how many asymptomatic carriers there are
      
      Agreed,
      
      It’s just that I have been aware for weeks that we did not have the equipment or facilities up and running for testing more than a few hundred folk/day.
      
      Now that things are ramping up, we’ll get better information, but it will be primarily about those infected who show medium to severe symptoms.
      
      Infected folks who are asymptomatic or suffer mild symptoms are currently not going to be tested.
      
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      March 31, 2020 12:22pm
- KevO'Brien
  
  If we do stop possible community transfer how do we ever re-start?
  
  We have to live with viruses yearly and take precautions. The new one is not much more hazardous to those who are already expiring.They still have to navigate the other lurking viruses who prove each year to killers.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:28am
rouppe

Jacinda Adern has said that it is not illegal to raise prices. She said this in response to supermarket pricing concerns.

If this is true, why has she made it illegal for landlords to raise prices?
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March 31, 2020 8:11am
- cmm
  
  Landlords should write more $10k cheques.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:59am
  - Happychappy
    
    cmm here is a laugh for you on this morning’s news it was stated that some Tennant’s had misunderstood the Government’s rent freeze on landlord’s to the extent that they believed they had no need to pay rent until the Government lifted freeze. Are people thick in your opinion or did really think they could get away with it.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:24am
    - cmm
      
      The “everything for free” understand little, but since they are now impossible to evict I bet some are also playing it dumb.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:45am
    - kloyd0306
      
      All Labour supporters, no doubt.
      
      8 2
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      March 31, 2020 11:18am
      - cmm
        
        There’s a long road between liking Cindy and actually waddling down to the voting booth.
        
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        March 31, 2020 2:51pm
    - MCos
      
      The rent freeze is for six months, whereas the ban on evictions is three months.
      #1 – As it happens my son has been given notice to leave his rental property at the end of that period. If he stopped paying rent I would say his chance of finding another place would be zero. Furthermore the Tenancy Tribunal would take a dim view of his actions.
      #2 – My sister’s neighbour has lost her job a her new pared down income doesn’t stretch to cover her outgoings. Until the current crises recedes she is unlikely to find another job. It seems to me that in the interim the landlord & her could negotiate a revised rent to suit her ability to pay. Otherwise she’ll be out in the street & he’ll have a place that may be difficult to rent.
      
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      March 31, 2020 12:46pm
- Nickc2
  
  A very good point Rouppe. I can’t add anything to that other than to ask where was the MSM push back on this?
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:40am
  - Tall Man
    
    Ha ha ha ha …. Are you ok?
    
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    March 31, 2020 3:06pm
- notreadyet
  
  But look at the way they hammered the fuel industry
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:50am
- KevO'Brien
  
  Commies hate landlords because they compete with the state for land ownership and control.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:33am
Zapper

Why are Stuff running stories about foreigners in Australia being eligible for assistance (not just kiwis) including a picture of Ardern? She had NOTHING to do with it. If anything, her mouthing off a month or so ago could have led to kiwis being specifically excluded.

Unbelievable
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March 31, 2020 8:16am
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Her nice teeth, the Australians cant get enough of her.
  
  I bet they if they had her and her ‘leadership’ for any length of time, they would soon be hankering for the good old days of Morrison.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:35am
  - Zapper
    
    I get messages from my Australian friends saying they wish they had her, so I am forced to explain some home truths then I get “I don’t want to talk politics”. Well get a clue what you’re talking about then.
    
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    March 31, 2020 8:58am
    - Sacha
      
      I get endless articles praising Ardern on my FB page. At this rate she’ll be the next Governor of NSW!
      I’ve stopped reading them and chuck them in the bin.
      
      14 1
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      March 31, 2020 9:53am
    - Ed Snack
      
      I got one of those from a relative. Told them they were very welcome and could we send her over pronto – with one proviso, they couldn’t send her back if dissatisfied. They didn’t get it to start with, said she seemed “a very nice caring person”.
      
      The main remaining power of the MSM – to create fictions about those they support.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:58am
- Nickc2
  
  Exactly, the deal is not exclusively for NZers. The way it is being reported here, one is lead to believe it was a deal between Morrison and Cindy. Shame once again on our MSM. What a bunch of self congratulating wankers.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:50am
Padraig Payne

This is a good example of how early decisive border closures and testing all arrivals could have allowed us to avoid the current lock down.

This woman arrived from overseas, infected with covid 19 but asymptomatic, and channeled typhoid Mary at a wedding.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/120678551/coronavirus-drunken-antics-at-wellington-wedding-led-to-covid19-cluster
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March 31, 2020 8:18am
- BobbyS
  
  The story in Stuff is full of BS
  I know an attendee at the wedding. The newly wed couple have NOT been contacted. They are stuck overseas on honeymoon.
  Everyone they have spoken to is in isolation and none of them have the virus NOR have been tested
  There was only one wedding there on the saturday so it cant be another group
  As always Stuff are BSing to make a clickbait story
  This “journalist” Tom Hunt needs to replace his H with a C
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:08am
  - kowtow
    
    Our MSM have turned themselves into purveyors of fake news. They are the lying scum propaganda wing of cultural marxist politicians .
    
    Trump is right , fake news . That’s why the Media Party hate him . Trump , Trump , Trump .
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:53am
G152

Went to a local supermarket this morning for the weeks supplies.
The employees were rushing about and orders flew left and right.
I put my best German accent on but I doubt any of them caught the implied message
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March 31, 2020 8:20am
Andrei

A rare breath of sanity from Stuff this A.M.:Do the consequences of this lockdown really match the threat?
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March 31, 2020 8:21am
Critical Thinker

Keep calm and carry on with no lockdown like Sweden is. As the current data shows that the China Coronavirus is not much worse than the common flu. Says Simon Thornley, senior lecturer and epidemiologist at the University of Auckland.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat
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March 31, 2020 8:22am
Tricati

Who else is getting confused – We have daily reports of health workers not having sufficient PPE and yet the PM says we have plenty? We have the PM & ‘experts’ saying the number of positive Covid 19 tests is stabilizing, yet we are still not testing those coming into the country, and just now, establishing additional test points around the country. We have ‘hot-lines’ to dob in price gauging supermarkets, or people seemingly not complying with their ‘bubble’ requirements, and yet difficulty for business to access info on tax relief. We have no idea when the Level 4 restrictions will be lifted and how we will re-establish our businesses, yet the finance minister is talking about ‘rebuilding a country of unity’ (Code for full socialist agenda??).
Am I’m I being paranoid in thinking we are not getting all the facts, and the current mob intend on using this crisis to set in place irreversible policies that impact heavily on those that take risk and better themselves?
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March 31, 2020 8:24am
- krazykiwi
  
  The lies we’re being fed are vastly more dangerous that the virus
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:59am
- Fletch
  
  I caught the end of Hosking this morning and he was pointing out that the PPE being used in the drive through Matamata testing station looked less than effective. Hospital gowns blowing in the wind, not tied together properly, looked like aprons and less effective than teatowels blowing on the line. A listener also commented that they were passing the same clipboard and pen from car-to-car.
  
  Dumb. Really dumb.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:26am
  - Belinda
    
    Yes everytime i come into my retirement village, i answer the same stupid questions, sign with their same pen and clipboard.
    Doesnt matter how many times I tell them Ive only been for a walk and been within two metres of anyone.
    It doesnt matter how many times I tell them using the same pen and clipboard is more dangerous than my walk.
    
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    March 31, 2020 1:49pm
- mark15
  
  At Hastings hospital,ppe is locked in a cupboard.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:45pm
Waipuk

I am a little confused.
On the one hand they say hospitals are running at 50% so have plenty of staff available and the frontline staff are wearing the appropriate PPE when needed which is only when a patient are showing Covid type signs.

So why are they wanting medical staff who have left the business to make themselves available?

Are they expecting large numbers on frontline staff to become sick? But if they are now wearing the appropriate PPE why would they become sick?
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March 31, 2020 8:33am
- cmm
  
  Are they expecting lots to get sick?
  
  Yup, look what happened in Greymouth: 21 staff stood down for 2 weeks due to potential infection from the woman that died.
  
  That’s a massive dent out of Greymouth’s staffing.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:03am
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  Yes,
  I think they realised last week the virus was out and about in the community.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:14am
  - Michael NZ
    
    No Maggie they’ve known for a month..
    They aren’t stupid, the medics/scientists know.
    If they tested all visitors they would have proof. They haven’t because they didn’t want proof…
    Temember March 15th was in play.
    
    It is the politicians both in Parliament and the MOH, who are playing the information game.
    
    March 15th meant we didn’r close the borders in Feb.
    it is here all over, thousands came into NZ.
    sure it might be patchy and many people got it shrugged and carried on.
    
    4000 people from Wuhan flew to the USA in the last months before their lockdown.
    5 million fled Hebei province before the Chinese Lockdown.
    
    We know this from reports, I have saved them all on my machine.
    Jacindas medics knew all that, it’s info they deal with.
    Sadly we are being played for fools, by Liars.
    ( thanks Tall man).
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:35pm
Steve James

This apparently sneaked out from somewhere in China recently:
https://video.fchc2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t42.3356-2/10000000_3172374336125788_8936078272811237376_n.mp4/video-1585173364.mp4?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=060d78&_nc_oc=AQlXFTpHqP_vCwMKcGBqkhRrFSVjG_gJRlam2wx0gPS4fMN1GHiOZA5NxcxeSW_0wKRYdamxVBm_HIZp_KXg9jNz&vabr=961382&_nc_ht=video.fchc2-1.fna&oh=e13f30e3de17a8207dea2602049b9eee&oe=5E821846&dl=1
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March 31, 2020 8:36am
- PhilBest
  
  “URL signature expired”
  
  What was the video?
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:57am
  - Steve James
    
    Bugga, I thought that might happen
    The video shows:
    * Hundreds of trucks spewing out vapour from big funnels like upside-down concrete mixer, going two abreast down streets.
    * dead bodies lined up along the sidewalks. Lots of them
    * Heavy steel bars welded over peoples doors to keep them inside
    * Dudes fishing not 5 meters aeway from a dead body in the river.
    * Bodies being collected from parks
    * People being chased down and by hazmat wearing cops/soldiers or whatever.
    It looks pretty new too so probably credible.
    Bloody CCP need to be punished.
    
    10 2
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    March 31, 2020 10:00am
    - Michael NZ
      
      Steve I have had 4 vids that I could watch from freinds in China.
      They showed similar scenes, plus one showing men in medical kit loading hand guns and then walking around the corner from the camera and then gunshots.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:39pm
  - Steve James
    
    Also it shows two Chinese women deliberately wiping their nose into tissues or rags and wiping the mucus on a park bench a westerner is sitting on.
    He is recording himself and they are clearly caught doing this behind him.
    It looked very much like a deliberate biological attack.
    
    9 2
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    March 31, 2020 10:06am
  - Steve James
    
    Phil, try right click, copy link address and pick it up in downloads. I did just that and it’s there
    Or if you want, send an email addy and I will forward to you.
    Cheers
    
    4 2
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    March 31, 2020 10:09am
    - Martin Williams
      
      You forgot to ask for his bank card number.
      
      3 17
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      March 31, 2020 10:45am
      - Tall Man
        
        He’s not a labour party member, he knows what a favour is, didn’t sexually assault him either so proves beyond a shadow of a doubt he’s normal not labour.
        
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        March 31, 2020 3:13pm
Cunningham

It’s fascinating how the narrative changes from day to day at the moment. Today’s narrative is that we may not be making the right choice with regards to a lock down (it is good to get a different opinion). This is only less than a week into it. With at least 3 weeks to go I am slightly concerned that people are going to really lose their shit in the next few weeks and who knows where things will end up. So many twists and turns to this thing!
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March 31, 2020 8:41am
- PhilBest
  
  It’s not just “today’s narrative”, it is truth and reason breaking through the crap at last.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:58am
Andrew Worth

380 cops stood down because they came into contact with 2 with the virus, 21 medical staff on the West Coast isolating for the same reason, photos of over a dozen cops at a gas station all cozy having a get together.
There’s too much socializing and close contact between people in “essential” services without even the basic PPE in sight. Go to the supermarket and people are still walking up and down the isles in close proximity.
The government claims possession of 18 million masks that are sitting around in storage.

Those masks need to be on people in proximity ti others outside their bubble, including the PM and others making the rules.

delivering 2 to each household in the mail could have and should have been done weeks ago, after that, if you’re not wearing one you stay at home, “essential” service, shopping, or PM.
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March 31, 2020 8:41am
- JamesP
  
  The 380 Police are those self isolating for all reasons eg. returned from overseas, contact with other sick people, vulnerable family members etc. It is not the number directly arising from those 2 Police cases alone.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:52am
  - Andrew Worth
    
    2 police test positive – 380 more who worked with them are in self-isolation
    video 40 secs in : https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/govt-s-covid-19-modelling-expert-warns-new-zealand-can-t-afford-to-reach-italy-s-crisis-level.html
    
    I saw the announcement on this at the 1 pm update, and the phrasing from Bush was that the other 380 were isolating as a result of having had contact with the 2. But I see that in other reports it’s given as a total of 380 cops from around the country.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:38am
    - cmm
      
      HTF have the cops not had enough training to do social distancing in the workplace?
      
      I grant you that 3 or 4 cops need to squeeze into a car and violate the 2 metre rule, but then they should keep together as a unit (remember bubbles?) then if one goes down only 3 others need to go into isolation – not 200, 300 or whatever.
      
      Same too for medical staff. Keep people from different wards, rooms and shifts apart as much as possible. Yes, that will require some changes to existing protocols (eg. handover), but so be it.
      
      This is basic stuff…
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:56am
- rockape
  
  dont forget 36 medical staff in Southland DHB.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:57am
- cmm
  
  “delivering 2 to each household”
  
  Stop depending on the bloody government to do everything for you. If you do you will be let down.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:05am
  - Andrew Worth
    
    Not much point in me popping down to the chemist to get some, they’re all sold out and have been for over 2 weeks.
    
    8 1
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    March 31, 2020 9:20am
    - kowtow
      
      Actually , long before the panic started here someone was buying up hand sanitiser and masks . I suspect a lot of that stuff got posted abroad , to a country widely reported to have a serious virus outbreak.
      
      Be kind.
      
      9 2
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      March 31, 2020 9:58am
    - cmm
      
      We have had 20 in our emergency bag since 2000 (+ another 20 or so in the garage for sanding etc). + 400 or so gloves.
      
      You have an emergency bag right? And at least 100l of water. If not, why not?
      
      The government really cannot function as a supplier in a pandemic situation.
      
      If you can’t buy them, make your own. Home made are at least as good as surgical masks, but you’re probably are waiting for the government to send you needle and thread…
      
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      March 31, 2020 11:03am
      - Andrew Worth
        
        We have the required gear in this household. Many across the country do not. Stop being a twat and accept reality as it is now.
        
        5 1
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        March 31, 2020 11:10am
      - cmm
        
        Dude, you’re the one expecting the government to hand out two masks to each household and you want reality?
        
        The reality is that people need to learn from this. They have had ample other opportunities to learn (earthquakes etc) but seem to just keep expecting handouts.
        
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        March 31, 2020 12:51pm
      - Michael NZ
        
        .
        same here.
        cmm
        
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        March 31, 2020 10:42pm
- Sacha
  
  2 masks to each household? You do know that they are not reusable? That if you sneeze into one, it becomes moist/ineffective? That you can’t share them? That they are used to stop the wearer from sharing their ‘bugs’?
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:03am
  - Andrew Worth
    
    In a hospital they’re not reusable, for us commoners we’re only using them as a defense against one particular virus, a virus easily killed by sunlight, or hot temperatures, If you sneeze into it hang it on the line or blast it with the hairdryer.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:19am
    - cmm
      
      Give it at least a dunk in Janola solution first.
      
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      March 31, 2020 11:03am
      - Andrew Worth
        
        I’d be worried that wetting the paper masks would soften them causing the microscopic holes in them to change, reducing effectiveness.
        
        4 1
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        March 31, 2020 11:14am
      - cmm
        
        Good point Andrew, these are single use disposable masks for the most part. Make your own cloth masks if you want something to survive.
        
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        March 31, 2020 12:53pm
Durden

It is amazing that three months into the Covid-19 spread there is no clear consensus on whether Covid affected, but other wise symptom less people, can be infectious, versus only those with clear symptoms. Add to that those who are infected but not yet identifiable by tests due to accuracy levels.

Without that, how can you decide on the correct handling of returnees and their co-travellers via airports.

Surely, everyone returning from overseas must be tested AND quarantined in a controlled environment with monitoring.

And the same with who gets tested and who does not.

Instead of helping Jacinda see clearly on such issues, our ex-pm Clarke provides some maudlin logic and justification about how lives are more important than the economy.
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March 31, 2020 8:41am
- PhilBest
  
  Yes, as if the economy doesn’t determine any future rates of loss of life!!
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:59am
- Ruahine
  
  Stupid Helen Clark cannot even see that it is the economy that gives and sustains our lives as we know it. Perhaps she thinks we should have a hunter gather economy. For the plebs no doubt but not for her.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:03am
  - Tall Man
    
    That’s why cullen got the finance role.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:06am
    - Durden
      
      Cullen is supposedly helping Robbo do his budget from his sick bed. Only one reason for it — watch out for sneaky wording in budget to start the tax grab which will go on for a long time.
      
      The two perpetually troughing meddlers meddling away in the background.
      
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      March 31, 2020 11:47am
  - cmm
    
    She is sustained by printed money. Need more? Just print it.
    
    Politicians do not exist in the real world. They just take what they want.
    
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    March 31, 2020 11:05am
- cmm
  
  “Surely, everyone returning from overseas must be tested AND quarantined in a controlled environment with monitoring.”
  
  The testing is a waste if they are going to be quarantined too.
  
  Testing provides data/information. However if you are taking the same action anyway then it is a waste of time.
  
  Just quarantine them for 4 weeks.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:07am
  - Durden
    
    “Testing provides data/information”. Yes having facts is crucial if we are to understand propagation and adjust some levers to be less damaging to the economy. Data is what the Oxford university faction is seeking in the UK as well to balance out the Imperial college modelling.
    
    Fascinating discussion in the thread here and sub threads.
    https://twitter.com/SunetraGupta/status/1243135644756512768
    
    Data on the closed system petri-dish Diamond Princess cruise ship provides some interesting possibilities.
    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1242569554171179008
    
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    March 31, 2020 11:55am
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  One factor I’ve not seen mentioned much in NZ press is that the faeces of young children can harbour the virus.
  
  So young child becomes infected but has no respiratory symptoms, but may have a sore tummy for a day or so…and is carrying/spreading the virus for days.
  
  Detection of Novel Coronavirus by RT-PCR in Stool Specimen from Asymptomatic Child, China
  https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0301_article
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:21am
  - cmm
    
    I thought it was in adult faeces too, just that adult poo doesn’t get played with as much (nappy changes etc).
    
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    March 31, 2020 11:07am
Andrew Worth

As with everything else, this government is good at making noise and making faces, hopeless when it comes to actually getting anything done (the shutdown being about stopping things getting done).
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March 31, 2020 8:46am
- Simon
  
  You will like this tweet and the bat shit snowflakes triggered by someone in MSM not fawning over the Ardern government.
  
  Mike Hosking’s latest reckon is that the Prime Minister is being too visible in a crisis. This isn’t commentary, it’s pathology.
  
  https://twitter.com/publicaddress/status/1244406278379597825
  
  Look at the losers in replies.
  According to the left unless you fawn over the Ardern government you must be sick.
  
  As Ardern government mismanages the economy post Home Detention the more bitter and angry the left will become. Its only been a week so far and they are already losing their shit.
  
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  March 31, 2020 8:55am
Lee C

The consensus is beginning to emerge that this is a massive hoax.

The loss of trust in the Government is going to be tangible, I fear…

Then their sole credential for being in poser ‘Brandcinda’ will go up in smoke. IMO.
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March 31, 2020 8:47am
- PhilBest
  
  I don’t think it is a hoax as such, it is a conjunction of several factors. Media sensationalism is a “given”. The desire of a whole “class” of people around the world in media, bureaucracy etc to bring down the dreadful Trumpitler even if a panic-caused Depression is the means to achieve it. If Obama were President this wouldn’t have happened, not because Obama would have magically solved the problem, but because the groupthinking progressives all over the world wouldn’t have had the same motivations.
  
  Narratives seeded in progressive groupthink are responsible for numerous de facto “hoaxes” today. These people can’t possibly believe some of the stuff they subscribe to; it’s only ever a means to an end. It’s not “hoaxes” we need to wake up about, it’s a “worldview” that has become an “invasion of the body snatchers”.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:05am
  - Tall Man
    
    Social media is overun with idiots, this is driven by social media and pathetic politicians seeking the “likes” so what do we expect?
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:01am
  - kowtow
    
    The predictive modellers have a lot to answer for too.
    
    The 80000 figure being a culprit .
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:03am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    Groupthink is certainly rife. It’s even imported into my own household.
    Is anti-Trump really responsible for this global madness? I would prefer that to some other scenarios.
    
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    March 31, 2020 11:13am
Aunty

It is quite clear that the Labour Party is going to use the current crisis as an excuse to introduce a Capital Gains Tax in the next Government. Just watch them.
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March 31, 2020 8:47am
- Colville
  
  CGT is too slow off the mark for their need for massive money and NOW!
  
  They will want to put income taxes up for us rich pricks, watch that top rate go back up to 39 cents.
  
  They are probably inept enough to put company tax up too!
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:06am
  - Aunty
    
    Robertson is of the view that it is going to take generations to pay the cost of this thing off. Because of that long-term need for revenue, he also says it’s important to get the tax system right to pay for it. Join the dots, a CGT is coming.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:44am
- Littletramp
  
  It may be an interesting debate about the logic of introducing a capital gains tax, during a time of what will be potentially immense capital destruction?
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:11am
  - Aunty
    
    I agree. But that doesn’t stop a left-wing idealogue. This is a once in a generation gift to them to introduce a CGT and they will take it.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:45am
- fernglas
  
  That would produce precisely fuck all. There will be no capital gains in shares, housing etc. for years. More likely a wealth tax.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:35am
  - Tall Man
    
    Perfect time to bring it in then. Lower asset values now means nice fat payments around the corner.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:58am
- kowtow
  
  I fully expect a Death Tax too.
  
  Either way they’ll kill private property rights.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:05am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Oh, too right there’ll be death tax…..
    
    That’ll teach the old folks who survived.
    
    How Dare They!
    
    13 2
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    March 31, 2020 12:35pm
    - Aunty
      
      That’s right, Maggy. Their thinking will be we spent all this money on saving you old bastards, it’s unfair on the younger generation who were not at risk (it will be couched in the language of intergenerational fairness and inequality to make it palatable and seem an entirely reasonable thing to do – after all never let a good crisis go to waste – that’s the motto of the Left) to have to pay for all of this, so now we want your money. So cough it up when you die.
      
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      March 31, 2020 3:02pm
Yvette

What seems to have been bothering some people about the “recovered” figures –

March 30 – Bloomfield said recoveries were classified as people who have overcome their symptoms, and been symptom-free for 14 days
In New Zealand, a total of 63 were “recovered” as on March 29 [1]

“Symptom-free for 14 days”, means those now recovered March 30 must have been confirmed as infected prior March 16

On 17 March, four more cases were confirmed, bringing the total number of infected in New Zealand to 12 [2]

So, to spell out the seeming discrepancy: only 12 were infected on March 16 to be two weeks clear of symptoms as of yesterday, March 30.
So if 63 are recovered yesterday, where did the extra 51 come from?

Without an explanation, the trouble of course is, that one error in what we are told, always leaves questions concerning the rest of what we are told.

[1] https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120507064/coronavirus-tens-of-thousands-have-recovered-worldwide–though-nz-numbers-not-yet-known
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand
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March 31, 2020 8:48am
- PhilBest
  
  Your point is powerful confirmation of the whole emerging hypothesis about the deadliness (over-rated) and the herd immunity (under-rated) factors in this.
  
  Yes, we will need to be better prepared for a truly catastrophic pathogen, but overwhelmed ICU capacity in Northern Italy was just the latest “wake up call”, not the real thing for the entire world.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:09am
- cmm
  
  I think those were likely people that arrived infected and some guess was made as to when their infection started.
  
  eg. If someone arrived at the border already infected for 5 days then the period to get to recovered would be shortened by 5 days.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:10am
  - Andrew Worth
    
    In they arrive at the boarder infected that means they still have to recover before they can then be symptom free for 14 days.
    The math really isn’t that hard.
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:24am
- KevO'Brien
  
  They confuse queuing sampling with the random sampling, like in voting, required to measure the predictive bell-curve spread over a population.
  
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  March 31, 2020 11:18am
Happychappy

How can Jacinda Ardern make out that she is kind and caring when her actions call on her loyal followers to dob in or snitch on people or supermarkets that they suggest are doing wrong. To crash the Police website shows we have a few neighbors and many other bitter people that want to see NZ turn into a Police State that will run innocent peoples lives.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-zealand-site-to-report-covid-19-rule-breakers-crashes-amid-spike-in-lockdown-anger
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/video.cfm?c_id=280&gal_cid=280&gallery_id=218567
Jacinda Ardern wants to see busy bodys have right to interfere with innocent hard workers lives.
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March 31, 2020 8:49am
Steve James

Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who has been with us for many years. No one knows for sure how old he was, since his birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape. He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:

– Knowing when to come in out of the rain;
– Why the early bird gets the worm;
– Life isn’t always fair;
– And maybe it was my fault.

Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don’t spend more than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).

His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but overbearing regulations were set in place. Reports of a 6-year-old boy charged with sexual harassment for kissing a classmate; teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.

Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job that they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly children.

It declined even further when schools were required to get parental consent to administer sun lotion or an aspirin to a student; but could not inform parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.

Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and criminals received better treatment than their victims.

Common Sense took a beating when you couldn’t defend yourself from a burglar in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.

Common Sense finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little in her lap, and was promptly awarded a huge settlement.

Common Sense was preceded in death,
-by his parents, Truth and Trust,
-by his wife, Discretion,
-by his daughter, Responsibility,
-and by his son, Reason.

He is survived by his 5 stepbrothers;
– I Know My Rights
– I Want It Now
– Someone Else Is To Blame
– I’m A Victim
– Pay me for Doing Nothing

Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone.
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March 31, 2020 8:49am
- PhilBest
  
  Gold!
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:11am
Andrew Worth

“The consensus is beginning to emerge that this is a massive hoax.”
A hoax In what way?
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March 31, 2020 8:51am
- Yvette
  
  Perhaps “hoax” that when New Zealand is internally free of the virus, the nation will have returned to the day it was before we got our first case, but somewhat diminished economically in the meantime.
  We will need then to maintain absolutely impenetrable borders or it all starts over again.
  
  The only benefit of what is being done now, is to supposedly even out numbers of seriously infected so that the limited facilities of ICU beds and ventilators aren’t swamped beyond catering and decisions have to be made about who goes without that help, and die prematurely.
  There may be 700 ventilators, but if a patient requires one for 5 – 7 days, those ventilators may only be available weekly, not 700 a day. Once you’re on a ventilator, accounts indicate it is not a hoax.
  
  scary –
  … countries like Spain and Italy have higher quality health systems than New Zealand, and that we simply can’t afford for it to get as bad – Professor Wilson, the expert who has informed the Government’s big decisions on COVID-19 and completed most of the modelling relied on by the Government
  
  also scary –
  2 police test positive – 380 more who worked with them are in self-isolation
  video 40 secs in : https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/govt-s-covid-19-modelling-expert-warns-new-zealand-can-t-afford-to-reach-italy-s-crisis-level.html
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:24am
  - Tall Man
    
    “Somewhat diminished economically” is like saying a dead person’s breathing is reduced ?
    
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    March 31, 2020 9:50am
- JerJer
  
  Because, what may happen is that the statistics (which don’t lie), once proper random sampling has been done, may show what people are starting to suspect, which is this this may have already widely infected the general population and this will reduce the death rate down to same or simlar level to the flu. So, it may turn out to be media driven panic for a problem that really did not exist (or not different to the normal statistics around flu). If this does occur, then all of this crashing of ecomonies was for nothing. If this does occur, then our govenment will be shown up for being the fair weather sailors that we already know that they are…..but, they will spin it and tell everyone that if it wasn’t for them, things would have been so00000 much worse. People will believe them too.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:29am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    Any junior statistician could have called out how bad the presentations have been. From day zero we have been fed fear backed up by misrepresented numbers.
    Politics not honesty or integrity.
    
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    March 31, 2020 11:24am
- Andrei
  
  A hoax in the narrative that people are dropping like flies from this “deadly virus” when almost from the beginning it was obvious that those dying were elderly people , mostly very elderly and also had significant comorditites.
  
  The Italian figures show a median age of 81 among the deaths and 98.9% of those who have died have significant other life threatning illness
  
  The majority of the deaths have occurred in Lombardy while in many other regions of Italy you can count the number of deaths on the fingers of one hand
  
  In addition it is also becoming apparent that some maybe most of the deaths in Lombardy the people actually were admitted to hospital for their other serious conditions and actully contracted the virus while in hospital – this is called a nosocomial infection and is not an uncommon occurence.
  But then the question arises was it the original condition that saw them off with the viral infection at most a contributing factor or actually totally irelevant.
  
  Finally a similar situation arose in Lombardy in 2018 with the flu epidemic and that particular epidemic saw 25,000 deaths in Italy a number which is far higher than the current assumed death toll in that nation as of today and unlikely to be matched during this current crisis
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:36am
- RW Capitalist
  
  Hoax no…
  Exaggeration…YES
  Other diseases are more dangerous in the world.
  They are definitely impinging, semi permanently on our rights.
  They are rolling all the stupidity and destruction of our economy, that occurred BEFORE Covid 19, into the covid 19 figures and blaming the whole mess they made, on Covid 19.
  Not sure how the number of houses not built, will be included. or the number of trees not planted.
  But their failure on
  poverty
  the homeless
  the unemployed
  etc
  certainly are already being included.
  
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  March 31, 2020 1:17pm
Happychappy

I wonder how long it will take for Winston Peters to come out slinging mud at John Key for his interview with Mike Hosking this morning.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/video.cfm?c_id=280&gal_cid=280&gallery_id=218591
He was asked the questions and replied without once criticizing Jacinda Ardern or the Government.
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March 31, 2020 9:07am
- Durden
  
  Experienced statesmanlike interview. Rather unlike the embittered and partisan Clark, or bauble clinging bile-spewing Peters.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:05am
  - Nickc2
    
    Agree Durden. Is there a chance that Nancy Pelosi and Helen Clark are twins? They are both as bitter and twisted and dare I say . . . . . . as each other.
    
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    March 31, 2020 12:42pm
- Brian McDonald
  
  Very good.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:29am
BarryB

Ive just heard on radio that Air NZ propose laying staff off but they havent applied to Govt for thewage subsidy. I think the move is a bit strange. It wont encourage staff to be very keen on being helpful or loyal to the company in future.
Which brings me to bigger point. Ive always felt that many NZ companies are managed by bumbling idiots – and one silver lining to this current challenge is that these badly run companies will go to the wall and society will be rid of them.
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March 31, 2020 9:07am
- Tall Man
  
  Hopefully no one near and dear to you is relying on the salary they pay to survive.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:46am
- Brian McDonald
  
  Didn’t they get a 500 million bailout already?
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:07am
  - Captain Mainwaring
    
    Brian McDonald, living proof that there are still idiots among us.
    They didn’t get a bailout, they got a loan (at a very high interest rate) in order to preserve some working capital as their revenue collapses.
    
    11 2
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    March 31, 2020 10:31am
    - Brian McDonald
      
      It’s still a bailout, I didn’t say it was a gift and the CEO said it was what was needed.
      Feeling the pressure Nancy?
      
      4 3
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      March 31, 2020 12:40pm
    - Poppa
      
      Yes I think it was $900M
      
      Interest rate was eye watering
      
      5 1
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      March 31, 2020 2:11pm
- gravedodger
  
  Maybe Foran understands any recovery is a very long term process so the concept of keeping a workforce ready for when the dawn arrives is rather pointless whereas many other enterprises will just begin on “Monday”.
  
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  March 31, 2020 5:06pm
Aunty

The current rates of death in Europe and the United States reflect what was happening on the ground in terms of community transmission there 3 weeks ago.

Given this on average two to three weeks lag between becoming infected and dying, I expect that we could have here in New Zealand around a dozen or so deaths towards the end of April.
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March 31, 2020 9:15am
- Andrew Worth
  
  The number I’ve seen is a 2 week lag between infections and deaths, this leads to an interesting result in the equation for the US: Current deaths 3,000, number diagnosed infected 2 weeks ago: 3,600, fatality rate: 83%??
  
  That suggests to me that the number diagnosed infected in the US is only a tiny fraction of those actually infected – 2 weeks ago the numbers were likely 10 – 20 times as high.
  
  In NZ we’re getting about a 3 – 4% rate of positive tests, across the US that figure is 16%, in NYS and NJ it’s around 35%. I see that as evidence that in the US huge numbers of people with it are not being diagnosed.
  
  I think likely the US if going to get into the high hundreds of thousands to over a million infected and high tens of thousands in deaths.
  
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  March 31, 2020 9:51am
  - cmm
    
    “In NZ we’re getting about a 3 – 4% rate of positive tests, across the US that figure is 16%, in NYS and NJ it’s around 35%. ”
    
    None of it is random testing so it tells you nothing about actual rates.
    
    The differences between different areas also mean nothing because the testing policies are different. It is invalid to make comparisons.
    
    You can only make statistically valid extrapolations when rates and methodologies are constant. Neither rates not methodologies are constant so you’re seeing things which are not there.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:18am
    - Andrew Worth
      
      In NZ and in the US the testing policy is the same: Those in close proximity to those confirmed with the virus and those with symptoms consistent with having the virus.
      
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      March 31, 2020 10:23am
      - cmm
        
        Even if the basic policy is the same (I’m pretty sure the details differ – and vary state to state – and are inconsistently applied), they result in different outcomes under different infection densities (eg. NYC vs Christchurch).
        
        Bottom line though is that the only testing that allows you to make extrapolations across a population is fully random testing.
        
        This is exactly the same reason as why self-selecting polling is so inaccurate.
        
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        March 31, 2020 3:40pm
- Brian McDonald
  
  If confirmed infections rise to 1950 and the death rate is the same as Germany .7%(roughly) that could result in 14 (rounded) dead by the end of April. Alternatively, it is a rate around 4% as some countries 78 (rounded) are reporting If that is correct, then how will it be considered, good or bad regarding the shutdown? Especially if there are underlying conditions in some or all of the dead.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:18am
  - cmm
    
    We now have the new “worst case if you’re naughty and don’t listen to Cindy” number of 14,000. That’s a grossly inflated number I think.
    
    Anything better than 14,000 is all because of St Cindy.
    
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    March 31, 2020 10:20am
lifesgood

You have to laugh, don’t you? A week ago supermarkets were telling everybody not to panic buy because their warehouses were full and there was plenty of stock. All they needed was shorter hours to restock the shelves. Now they are saying that their higher prices were because of stock shortages. Lying b*****ds. And what have they done with the hundreds of thousands of dollars they have saved by eliminating plastic bags?
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March 31, 2020 9:15am
- kowtow
  
  ‘And what have they done with the hundreds of thousands of dollars they have saved by eliminating plastic bags?”
  
  They’ll have passed those savings on to us …….yeah right.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:11am
Chuck Bird

Lovely picture of Cindy here.

https://ysb.co.nz/have-your-say-350/
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March 31, 2020 9:22am
- rightoverlabour
  
  LOL
  
  12 1
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  March 31, 2020 9:49am
  - Martin Williams
    
    You love that uniform, don’t you?
    
    3 20
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    March 31, 2020 10:26am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  Yup, that is our Commander in Chief
  
  14 1
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  March 31, 2020 11:31am
geoff3012

Where’s whinny?

[Deleted here too geoff. No charges have been determined or laid yet. Mod]

I posted this on BFD but ……was deleted……
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March 31, 2020 9:37am
- kevn
  
  @geoff… BFD? I haven’t been to that pond for months.
  Years ago as WO, it was interesting but not now.
  Great to hear Key on Hosking this morning.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:17am
fernglas

“Fourteen thousand people could die if Covid-19 spreads out of control in New Zealand – and more if our intensive care units are overwhelmed.

That’s according to new modelling being released today by the Government.

A team of Otago University researchers, who provided the modelling to the Ministry of Health, found that a worst case scenario of uncontrolled spread in the country could see up to 64 per cent of the population infected, 32,000 people hospitalised, and up to 14,000 deaths.”

That’s about 2,500,000 cases for 14,000 deaths max. About half a percent?
Two questions for the Government:
1) What proportion of those deaths would otherwise have occurred?
2) Is the social cost of crashing the economy worth those lives?
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March 31, 2020 9:42am
- KevO'Brien
  
  When does a “researcher” wear political blinkers?
  When it’s from Otago Uni.
  
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  March 31, 2020 11:28am
- WaveyDavey
  
  We lose approx 35,000 pa or 100 a day
  
  The necessary data is excess deaths as many of that 14,000 have their death notices in the post already.
  
  If even half of that 14,000’s number was up that’s an extra 7,000 or 20 a day
  
  So being realistic and saying that the worst case is very unlikely and that C19 hits those with pre-existing conditions (of which I am one) hardest we’re maybe looking at an extra 3-5 deaths a day
  
  And we’re trashing our economy for that
  
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  March 31, 2020 12:38pm
  - cmm
    
    No we’re trashing it for #CinD4UN.
    
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    March 31, 2020 3:44pm
cmm

Now “worst case” is 14,000.

That’s down from 80,000 just three days ago.

Thank you Cindy. You make miracles. I luvs you forever!

#CinD4UNAndMikeBushToo!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12321087
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March 31, 2020 9:53am
- cmm
  
  If we plot the progression of these “worst case” numbers being used by the government we detect something that looks a bit like an exponential curve y = ab^x with 0<b<1.
  
  A few days back it was 80,000, then yesterday tens of thousands, today 14,000. They are reeling back quickly!
  
  Far too early to tell, but if this trend continues then by the end of next week we should be down to approx 15 deaths, all died with not died from.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:12am
  - Poppa
    
    Cmm. Whilst I am very good with maths I am no statistician
    
    So if you add in today’s number and the fact there have been no deaths since the first one how will that plot?
    
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    March 31, 2020 2:14pm
    - cmm
      
      That’s a trick question.
      
      You can plot it if you like, but it means nothing.
      
      Small numbers are there to frustrate statisticians.
      
      1 2
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      March 31, 2020 2:56pm
- Aunty
  
  And what, 5000 additional collateral deaths from other sick New Zealanders not being able to access timely medical care and intervention that would have otherwise saved them because the hospitals have become overwhelmed dealing with Covid-19? Or maybe it might be 10,000? Who can say, but there will be deaths in that group if this thing is allowed to run wild.
  
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  March 31, 2020 3:15pm
  - cmm
    
    A very good point Aunty.
    
    In many way’s we’re trashing our economy and the normal function of the health system (and many other systems) and our general well-being to keep a few old frail people alive for an extra few months.
    
    For example, the cardiac outpatients at Christchurch Hospital has been shut down. This means that a whole bunch of generally fit people are not getting their cardiac testing done and there will be delays out until June at least. These patients are being put at risk for patients with little returns. This is particularly problematic for people like myself who have only recently been put on meds and need rests to determine if the meds are at the right level. Instead of getting a checkup after 6 weeks, I can expect one after 4 months.
    
    This flies in the face of good medical policy. In crisis conditions, policies should be designed to give the best outcomes. I’m not seeing that.
    
    3 2
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    March 31, 2020 3:56pm
Maggy Wassilieff

After 40+ years of being hitched to a physicist, not too much surprises me about some of their dozy ideas.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device
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March 31, 2020 9:59am
- cmm
  
  Thanks Maggy
  
  I really needed that laugh!
  
  Let’s hope the fool doesn’t try invelt a climate change device.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:05am
- kowtow
  
  Images of Capt Blackadder trying to get out of the big push springs to mind.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:16am
Nickc2

Are any of Winston’s mob involved in this COVID-19 decision making group? If so. they deserve a good spray as well.
11 1
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March 31, 2020 10:00am
- Brian McDonald
  
  Winston said pure Vodka is fine.
  
  4 0
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  March 31, 2020 12:42pm
  - WaveyDavey
    
    Single malt surely?
    
    6 0
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    March 31, 2020 12:45pm
    - Nickc2
      
      Sorry people, I meant a verbal spray. In other words, tell them how we really feel about their appointment of our PM.
      
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      March 31, 2020 1:44pm
Yvette

The population of Italy is 60.48 million and “normal’ Italian death rate 10.4 per 1000
So per year ( 60,480 x 10.4) is 628,992 persons
means normally each day approximately 1,723 would pass on
(discounting seasonal difference)

Now the covid-19 death rate is up to 812 a day
4% are under 60 years old, 1% with covid-19 have no other disease or condition
25% have one other condition, 26% have 2 conditions, and 48% have 3 or more conditions. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

But how much are covid-19 deaths 812 of the ‘normal’ 1,723 rate
or over and above that number of 1,723 who would usually die in a day?
What is the comparison between the covid-19 rate and non-covid-15 daily death rate?
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March 31, 2020 10:07am
- Andrew Worth
  
  “25% have one other condition, 26% have 2 conditions, and 48% have 3 or more conditions.”
  
  So those dying from the virus are pretty typical of others in the population who’re over 60%?
  
  I’m 56 and in good health but have 2 conditions, asthma, and on rare occasions an irregular heart beat.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:50am
- Lee C
  
  Really Yvette? Questions at a time like this.
  
  It’s perfectly simple.
  
  No one was going to die in 2020.
  
  Unless their death was caused by the virus.
  
  Haven’t you been following the ‘Plandemic’?
  
  Typical Right-wing denier.
  
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  March 31, 2020 11:48am
artemisia

Live stream on Parliament TV of Epidemic response team 10 am today and future sessions as well.
9 0
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March 31, 2020 10:10am
- Inandout
  
  Damn, I was going to paint the house. Now I will be required to watch Dear Leaders.
  
  6 1
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  March 31, 2020 10:26am
  - kowtow
    
    You could paint a huge portrait of Dear Leader on a gable…….
    
    8 2
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    March 31, 2020 10:44am
    - sooty
      
      Wheres Roofus the painter working.
      
      4 1
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      March 31, 2020 12:07pm
- cmm
  
  Have they got special uniforms?
  
  5 2
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  March 31, 2020 11:32am
jonnycomelately

Just watching the Epidemic Response Committee meeting, effectively the replacement for our Parliament. Our illustrious (sarc) minister of health looking incredibly bored logged out after 15 minutes. Not that he has had much to say on this crisis.
16 1
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March 31, 2020 10:21am
Tasman Terror

Watching the live stream. National has heavy hitters in Bridges, Goldsmith, Reti, Woodhouse, and Upston. All will be senior Cabinet Ministers when Nats are next in government. Labour has 4 Neville Nobodies, treating it with disdain.
30 3
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March 31, 2020 10:29am
- Martin Williams
  
  Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
  Is that the first meeting of the Butchers and Bakers lobby group?
  
  Free muffins, everyone.
  
  1 33
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  March 31, 2020 10:50am
  - kevn
    
    {Deleted – stop the personal abuse. Mod]
    
    4 6
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    March 31, 2020 10:57am
  - Jack5
    
    If the butchers and bakers had a lobby group, halal butcheries wouldn’t be the only ones open in the country.
    
    How come the vegan lobby let the Muslim butchers through the barrier?
    
    7 1
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    March 31, 2020 1:40pm
    - Batman
      
      Because the vegans are just as disorganised lol
      
      3 0
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      March 31, 2020 1:47pm
    - cmm
      
      Because the vegans wanted the almond shops open, so they made a deal…
      
      3 0
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      March 31, 2020 2:58pm
adamsmith1922

[Quit the cross linking to your own blog. Mod.]
3 4
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March 31, 2020 10:39am
marcw

A ‘kind’ notice from Kiwibank yesterday afternoon informs me that my On-line Call Savings account interest has been revised. From 3 April, the rate will go from 1.2% pa total to 0.7% pa. At the same time, you can (if you qualify) get a variable mortgage interest rate home loan at 4.4%.

Thanks for (virtually) nothing Kiwibank.
12 1
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March 31, 2020 10:42am
BeaB

The KiwiNark website keeps crashing. Is this who we really are?
Is this who Jacinda wants us to be?
15 2
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March 31, 2020 10:59am
- OTGO
  
  Wait until she starts to pay people to narc on you.
  
  14 1
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  March 31, 2020 12:05pm
  - Michael NZ
    
    but she is with our money!
    
    0 0
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    March 31, 2020 11:09pm
- RW Capitalist
  
  BUT
  No encouragement to dob in:
  Burglars
  speeders
  dangerous drivers
  drunk drivers
  murderers
  assaulters
  drug dealers
  etc etc
  You know, people who could really hurt you…now.
  
  10 3
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  March 31, 2020 12:52pm
  - rockape
    
    And especially not benefit fraudsters!
    
    8 1
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    March 31, 2020 2:34pm
Tasman Terror

Although Cabinet Ministers can’t be a Select Committee member surely Labour could have done better than these numpties? If not then that kind of sums up their talent deprivation policy?
18 1
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March 31, 2020 11:09am
- greybeard
  
  Worst numpties have to work for the next 4 weeks.
  Other numpties get 4 weeks off. Paid.
  
  7 1
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  March 31, 2020 11:34am
Stu2

A modelling page has turned up on the Govt Covid site

https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/covid-19-modelling-reports
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March 31, 2020 11:24am
- MrTips
  
  Much more sensible and real world, written by genuine experts. This needs to be fully expounded by Nick and Michael in public.
  
  I’m still furious that non-expert attention seekers got headlines based on data that are clearly outlandish and politically motivated.
  
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  March 31, 2020 11:36am
- fernglas
  
  Very interesting; even the worst case scenario has a .29% death rate, 90% in over 60’s and 33% over 80. Also note that during the H1N1 pandemic, Maori and Pacific people were respectively 5 and 9 times more likely to require hospitalisation than Pakeha. This suggests that the impact of this pandemic will be disproportionately felt in those communities. Apparently socio-economic deprivation is also a significant factor.
  
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  March 31, 2020 12:12pm
  - Simon Gotlieb
    
    Many here would have you believe its because they are too lazy to run away from the virus. 😉
    
    2 23
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    March 31, 2020 12:41pm
    - Captain Mainwaring
      
      What an idiotic comment.
      
      14 1
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      March 31, 2020 1:10pm
    - cmm
      
      Sure, you can blame “poverdee” and genetics, but all those poor outcomes in Maori and Pacific people health are made far worse by personal choices: smoking, poor eating, etc etc.
      
      13 2
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      March 31, 2020 1:17pm
- Stu2
  
  The worst case scenario has contact reduced by 25% for 2 months, while the main scenarios have 25% for six months and 50% for nine months
  
  Level 4 must be a lot more than 25%, but I can’t see that lasting 6 or 9 months. The economic impact would be out of proportion to the gains
  
  I wonder what contact reduction level 3 achieves
  
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  March 31, 2020 1:21pm
- cmm
  
  This is a bit better than the 80,000 deaths modelling, but all they are doing is plugging numbers into a website http://covidsim.eu/
  
  This is a SEIR model (like the 80,000 model), but has a few more parameters which were lacking from the other model. Unfortunately the covidsim model does not seem to be verifiable (ie. the actual methodology behind the calculations is not available).
  
  IMHO, this model is a huge step up, so long as we have solid numbers to plug in (which, unfortunately, we don’t).
  
  This still makes some very poor assumptions, IMHO, like rates being constant through the modelling period (unlikely because as old, sick vulnerable people get eliminated, the remaining population survivability goes up).
  
  The bottom line though is that models are models. Fiddling around with the numbers a bit makes a change from 80,000 to 14,000 deaths. Fiddling some more might push it up to 50,000 or down to 1,000.
  
  Clearly we can’t take the models too seriously yet.
  
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  March 31, 2020 3:11pm
coge

I predict exponential growth. In the number of people demanding answers from this Govt.
17 1
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March 31, 2020 11:55am
Wired-one

Anyone else wondering how the Government and MOH are finding all those people that may have been in contact with Covid-19 carriers? Using your mobile location data services perhaps? I’m sure everyone has agreed to this and the bill to allow this has been scrutinized and voted on in parliament right?. I only say this as I was contacted by a member of my local DHB as I may have been in contact with a Coronavirus patient whilst in Te Anau a fortnight ago. I might add that I did not stop in Te Anau, buy anything or talk to anyone, let alone get out of my vehicle. Scary times.
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March 31, 2020 11:55am
- Simon Gotlieb
  
  That’s a pretty out there conspiracy theory, even for this week.
  
  3 20
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  March 31, 2020 12:42pm
  - Wired-one
    
    Thats right, typical [del -mod.] response when you dont have a clue. How else would they have known my location and that I had been in close contact with this patient? It’s what happened. If you do a bit of googling you will discover that this is happening in other countries also. I will wait with anticipation for your answer.
    
    6 2
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    March 31, 2020 12:57pm
- Poppa
  
  Bloody scary that is
  
  I was criticised for saying we are now in a police state…..this is proof that we certainly are
  
  5 2
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  March 31, 2020 2:20pm
  - Nickc2
    
    Yep, wait until the NZ Stasi come crashing through your front door in the middle of the night. “We are only here to help you,” the young constable said as he withdraw his Glock from it’s holster. At that point the young constable’s assistant, a little female police officer will draw your attention to a picture of Cindy’s melon on the side of their police car. It’s then you will realise what Winston meant when he said “capitalism is dead”.
    
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    March 31, 2020 2:53pm
krazykiwi

This is interesting, from a Swiss doctor:

In several countries, there is increasing evidence in relation to Covid19 that „the treatment could be worse than the disease“.

On the one hand, there is the risk of so-called nosocomial infections, i.e. infections that the patient, who may only be mildly ill, acquires in hospital. It is estimated that there are approximately 2.5 million nosocomial infections and 50,000 deaths per year in Europe. Even in German intensive care units, about 15% of patients acquire a nosocomial infection, including pneumonia on artificial respiration. There is also the problem of increasingly antibiotic-resistant germs in hospitals.

So 50,000 Europeans die each year from infections received in hospitals.
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March 31, 2020 11:58am
- cmm
  
  Yup, pretty common the world over. Old people especially prone.
  
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  March 31, 2020 1:06pm
Stu2

The “Potential Health Impacts from the COVID-19 Pandemic for New Zealand if Eradication Fails”
hinges off two levels of “general contact reduction”
(25% for six months and 50% for nine months).

That is how they are described in the text on pg 2, on page 6 they are simplified to 25% and 50% control.

What isn’t clear is what level of contact reduction level 3 and level 4 will provide, and how they lock onto 25%/50%
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March 31, 2020 11:59am
fernglas

The Financial Times notes that in Italy, only 12% of the deaths show a “direct causality” from Coronavirus.
https://www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553
Italy has had about 12,000 deaths. This means that roughly 13-1400 of those have been directly caused by Covid-19. Italy has a population of about 64,000,000. That current death rate is .00002 per cent of the population.
8 2
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March 31, 2020 12:01pm
- WaveyDavey
  
  Yep Italy is counting deaths WITH C19 as well as FROM
  
  Germany is doing it somewhat differently
  
  5 2
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  March 31, 2020 12:29pm
- cmm
  
  You have the numbers wrong by a factor of 100: 0.002%, not 0.00002%, but that doesn’t change much since the numbers are really low.
  
  It is under 20 per million (less than 100 when sized for NZ).
  
  Those “died with” people were already falling off their perches and it is ridiculous to count them.
  
  Unless we have the same accounting across countries any comparisons are pretty pointless.
  
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  March 31, 2020 12:47pm
MrTips

Dear diary
Day 6: received a call from the local vicar, checking on his flock. “Don’t go entertaining impure thoughts now” he said. “No Father” I replied, “impure thoughts are entertaining me”.
So bored, watched the Young Ones episode “Boring” and found it slightly boring. Utter bastards.
Have suspicions that a rat is in the house. TimTams are missing. Will need a bigger trap to catch 21 yr old perpetrator I suspect.
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March 31, 2020 12:04pm
cmm

Hone’s Angels now implementing Level 5, apparently.

Hone still cuddles up for the photo op.

When is Mr Plod going to shut these mofos down?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120691990/iwi-enforce-level-5-lockdown-to-stop-spread-of-coronavirus-in-community
16 1
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March 31, 2020 12:40pm
- WaveyDavey
  
  Never
  
  Next…
  
  10 1
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  March 31, 2020 12:44pm
  - RW Capitalist
    
    Hone is waiting for the first batch of passports to be printed, so he can start taking visa applications into HIS country.
    
    8 1
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    March 31, 2020 1:06pm
    - sooty
      
      .
      
      2 0
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      March 31, 2020 2:03pm
    - Nickc2
      
      We had some clown do that some years ago. I think he was working out of Rotorua or Gisborne, cant quite remember. This clown even went to court to defend his assumed powers (after he sold fake passports).
      
      3 1
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      March 31, 2020 2:15pm
RW Capitalist

In 2018, there were an estimated 228 million cases of malaria worldwide.
The estimated number of malaria deaths stood at 405 000 in 2018.
from
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malaria
and that is with Drugs to cure and prevent it and methods of protection against it (insecticides etc)
So, at current levels how serious is covid 19?
or is it OK that Malaria is largely present in Black Africans only?…Racist much?
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March 31, 2020 12:44pm
- Ruahine
  
  Malaria is still almost at epidemic proportions in Africa that the use of DDT is still used for control.
  
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  March 31, 2020 12:57pm
- cmm
  
  And then add 1.5million TB deaths per year. Also mainly brown people.
  
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  March 31, 2020 1:03pm
Jack5

The Woke force their version of grammar on us, regardless of Covid-19.

In a report in the Herald, about an individual showing Covid-19 symptoms spitting in police faces, we read :

They were arrested and kept in police custody until this morning.

Logically from this, the PC will be constructing sentences like this: “They is to appear in court tomorrow.”

No, that is too logical. They are screwing up the gender of verbs as well. The report will read:”They are to appear in court tomorrow, the person’s lawyer said.”
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March 31, 2020 12:52pm
- Jack5
  
  Additional thought: How do the Woke cope with learning any of the important languages that have grammatical gender of nouns and adjectives? A few of the many: French, German, Russian, Arabic, Hindi, Spanish, Portuguese.
  
  The NZ Pidgin that is emerging on Radio NZ and is spreading to the print media, may have less grammatical gender than English.
  
  Maori pronouns are non-gender. So perhaps NZ Pidgin will mix Maori and English grammar as well as nouns.
  
  4 2
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  March 31, 2020 2:02pm
  - Nickc2
    
    No perhaps Jack5, our talking heads on TV are doing it already.
    
    4 1
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    March 31, 2020 2:25pm
Ruahine

Atlas Air from Honolulu has just touched down at Auckland Airport. This a cargo company. I hope they are bringing pineapples.
10 0
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March 31, 2020 12:53pm
- RW Capitalist
  
  Warning to you.
  They are watching, taking note and will tax all sarcasm. After this lock down is finished.
  
  8 1
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  March 31, 2020 1:04pm
  - cmm
    
    Don’t laugh: Robbo just said they are setting up shopping Stazi to catch out people shopping too much.
    
    5 2
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    March 31, 2020 2:49pm
    - RW Capitalist
      
      So he really is the fat controller.
      
      4 1
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      March 31, 2020 3:37pm
- cmm
  
  Yup, the 4 pineapples I bought in Chch were not looking that flash. Need fresh stock.
  
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  March 31, 2020 1:04pm
- kowtow
  
  A consignment of paddle boards ……
  
  4 1
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  March 31, 2020 2:37pm
RW Capitalist

Q:
How many asymptomatic cases are there?
How many got it, thought it was a cold, got over it?
Without mass testing how would we know?
Is this, in NZ, why we are not testing everyone?
So we can exaggerate the figures, as our SLG is doing.
7 2
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March 31, 2020 1:02pm
- cmm
  
  No matter whether there is a will to test everyone, there is no way to do so.
  
  We do not have the test throughput, nor the reagents (chemicals) to test more than about 10k people a week. We could potentially increase that to 20k per week by dumping other testing , then run out of reagents.
  
  Testing everyone is not on the cards until we get a new way of doing the testing. The USA might be releasing such a test soon, but we’ll have to stand in line…
  
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  March 31, 2020 2:48pm
  - RW Capitalist
    
    Abbott chemicals, just released their 15min testing machine, today.
    
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    March 31, 2020 3:16pm
The worm that turned

As a long suffering ACC provider I’m used to their dreary wellness emails. But today’s email has now gone full Jacindamaniac..

“The response to our Prime Minister’s call for strength and kindness can be keenly felt across our provider community – thank you for the ongoing care you are giving to New Zealanders. ”

Ngā mihi nui,

Jade Walker-Clark
Head of Provider Service Delivery
16 1
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March 31, 2020 1:04pm
- Prince
  
  Another one who will be heartbroken come September.
  
  9 2
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  March 31, 2020 1:46pm
- Tall Man
  
  ACC and kindness …… oxymoron.
  
  5 2
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  March 31, 2020 3:20pm
- BeaB
  
  Appalling sycophancy.
  
  6 1
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  March 31, 2020 3:41pm
lifesgood

Anybody else fed up with the latest lefty lovvie being trotted out every five minutes? Personally I find it hard to take someone with bright pink hair and a very peculiar spelling of her name seriously. It is all about “Look at me, look at me”
21 2
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March 31, 2020 1:05pm
- greybeard
  
  Not mention this gem:
  
  https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/siouxsie-wiles-on-why-we-are-unlikely-to-see-a-coronavirus-outbreak-in-new-zealand/
  
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  March 31, 2020 2:57pm
WaveyDavey

Anyone else so Pavlovian-conditioned that they automatically tuned into bloody Coronation St?
4 1
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March 31, 2020 1:33pm
curry4me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efhStIL_NJU
Chinas’ authoritarianism has been so successful in combating Covid 19. Except it hasn’t. Taiwan, which is run by Chinese people has done very well. It’s democratic. The MSM seems to think authoritarian methods work though.
9 2
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March 31, 2020 1:38pm
- WaveyDavey
  
  According to the WHO Taiwan doesn’t exist of course
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlCYFh8U2xM
  
  “Sorry. I can’t hear you…”
  
  11 1
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  March 31, 2020 1:46pm
curry4me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W_9zCe2gF4
Bernie Bros are trying to #Me Too Joe Biden. They hope that he can win a contested convention. Then the Bernie Bros can take over the DNC. Then the Trump campaign can paint the Dems as socialists. Game over. Anyhow, the Dems have rubbished the accuser. So Joe Biden is safe for now. If they lose in a landskide, they might do some introspection. Maybe they’ll tell the far left to take a hike. I hope not.
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March 31, 2020 1:39pm
- Ed Snack
  
  I think though that we should just take Joe at his word, that is apply the rules that he advocates to him. Surely to do otherwise would be totally improper.
  
  And Joe says that accusers should be believed – period. So I’ll take Joe’s advice.
  
  Or do you want me to apply different rules to Joe than to others ? Surely not ?
  
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  March 31, 2020 2:15pm
WaveyDavey

NZ GDP c$200bn

Predicted downturn 6% – $12bn
Predicted deaths worst 20,000 best 20

Approximate cost per death
Worst $600k
Best $600,000,000
8 1
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March 31, 2020 1:39pm
- JamesP
  
  So figuring a life at $5M we break even at 2400 dead. And that’s a low estimate since those who die are more likely to be towards the end of their run.
  
  https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/110753822/is-a-life-worth-47-million
  
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  March 31, 2020 2:21pm
- Martin Williams
  
  Most of that predicted downturn will have been realised through decisions not our own.
  
  They were global decisions as a result of loose or non-existent coordinated pandemic plans.
  
  The response-to-pandemic road we’ve taken won’t alter the final economic downturn much. So we might as well save some lives.
  
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  March 31, 2020 2:28pm
  - cmm
    
    True for some stuff like tourism perhaps, but China is getting back on its game really quickly. A company I work with deals with electronic factories in China and the covid set them back 2 weeks.
    
    They will soon want logs, meat and all those sorts of things quickly.
    
    “The response-to-pandemic road we’ve taken won’t alter the final economic downturn much.”
    
    That is way oversimplying things. It is also not a matter of A or B. There is a continuum between them.
    
    We can have a mildly screwed economy (gets back into gear in, say 2 to 5 years) or we can have a badly screwed economy (10 to 20 years recovery).
    
    In the GFC we managed to do pretty well to shelter the impact, so it is possible to avoid complete disaster.
    
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    March 31, 2020 2:42pm
- cmm
  
  That’s a good start, but 99% of those deaths would be in crook 80+ year olds who would be dying within a year anyway (let’s just say 200 days on average).
  
  Those deaths are not someone losing their whole life. These are not people in the prime of their lives. They are mainly people already having very compromised lives, just waiting for their number to come up.
  
  So to tweak your numbers:
  Worst: $600k per death = $3k per person day of life or approx $120 per hour of sick life
  Best: $3M per person day of life or $120,000 per hour of sick life.
  
  4 3
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  March 31, 2020 2:30pm
- UrbanNeocolonialist
  
  20000 is just flat out wrong, just 0.4% ish. It pre-supposes good hospital treatment, which is most certainly not the case if the epidemic takes off. As evidence – everywhere it has taken off. Spain, France, Italy, Wuhan, San Marino, Andorro… All 2-10% of known cases dead, with large numbers still seriously sick, or still getting worse, a significant proportion of which are going to die.
  
  Even the great hope Iceland with just 0.2% dead has 2.5% of their highly tested population discovered to be infected seriously sick – and a lot more cases still deteriorating. With overwhelmed hospitals serious cases would mostly be dead.
  
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  March 31, 2020 3:11pm
curry4me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ4Qcnbs_mY
Mark Dice on Cringe Panda. She is a girl with a You Tube channel. She makes videos critical of the PC position on trans-gender issues. She uses facts and logic.
4 2
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March 31, 2020 1:41pm
Lucia Maria

We are not so much trying to hit a flea with a sledgehammer but instead are setting the house on fire to kill that flea and are hoping we can put the fire out before the house burns down. And the flea has most likely jumped onto us in the process.

Aren’t analogies fun! 🙂
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March 31, 2020 2:01pm
Durden

Sir David Skegg gives the government a good serve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_-k1iDa4XU
6 4
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March 31, 2020 2:26pm
- UrbanNeocolonialist
  
  I wonder why that is getting a downtick? Guilty of wrongthink? Is the greatest crisis NZ has faced in several generations a time for backing your team (Coalition) right or wrong?
  
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  March 31, 2020 2:58pm
Maggy Wassilieff

Some hard-hitting home truths from NZ’s Emeritus epidemiologist:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-sir-david-skegg-urges-government-to-show-clear-plan-to-eliminate-covid-19.html

The embedded video is worth watching.

we really have no idea of the extent of community spread…

I’m afraid that only complacency can have allowed our authorities to imply that the virus would behave differently here than everywhere else.”
9 3
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March 31, 2020 2:28pm
- krazykiwi
  
  He makes sense with this:
  
  A lockdown on its own is not enough. It’s like pressing the pause button on your device
  
  Exactly. Hundreds of thousands of businesses and lives ruined so the inept government can take a breath and try to formulate a plan.
  
  This comment is rather odd:
  
  Suppressing the virus was only the first step in eradicating it, he said, adding that it was “worrying” the Government wasn’t clearly talking about eliminating it completely.
  
  Does he mean like we have, ah, ‘eliminated’ Influenza? He of all people must know that we can’t eliminate this virus. What we need is immunity from it, and the best immunogen factory is the body of healthy humans .. ie like the vast majority of covid-19 cases where the person has recovered.
  
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  March 31, 2020 2:57pm
Happychappy

New Zealand can turn economy around fast, be” wealthier than ever before”, – Winston Peters.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/new-zealand-can-turn-economy-around-fast-be-wealthier-than-before-winston-peters.html
Well if we are to turn the economy around it surely it will not be because NZ First or Winston Peters had anything to do with it as like has been stated in the media and others the donation scandal and deciet of the senior members of NZ First over the NZ First Foundation and those wealthy peoples donations leaves a bad taste that it suggests large donations for policy.
8 2
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March 31, 2020 3:19pm
- Tall Man
  
  I’m fairly certain he was only referring to himself.
  
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  March 31, 2020 5:36pm
- kowtow
  
  From a member of the govt that destroyed oil and gas…….
  
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  March 31, 2020 6:55pm
cmm

According to the latest update from MoH, 2% of cases are from community transmission. Two percent. Two out of a hundred. 12 cases.

The other 577 cases are all due to bungling the quarantines.

According to PriNZess we had the strictest border controls in the world. Well maybe that was a teenie, tiny porkie.

Does anyone think we’d be in lockdown for 12 cases? Does anyone think we’d be in economic mealtdown for 12 cases?

This is what incompetence does. It might look cute in a Bridget Jones movie, but it isn’t cute in reality.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases
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March 31, 2020 3:22pm
- krazykiwi
  
  Speaking of cases, in 2017 (the latest year for MoH stats) New Zealand had 3234 deaths from respiratory diseases. 869 on these were from Influenza and pneumonia.
  
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  March 31, 2020 4:08pm
  - Prince
    
    Yeah, I remember the good old days when we used to have Health stats, before it was decided they led to inappropriate targets etc.
    
    4 1
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    March 31, 2020 5:20pm
- Poppa
  
  Exactly the point. I can see people getting very very angry if this plays out the way I think it will
  
  Cindy could be in for a backlash she has not prepared for
  
  7 1
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  March 31, 2020 5:10pm
- kowtow
  
  Cut to “vision” of the death convoys in Italy the BBC and by extension our Media Party are so found of scaring us with…….
  
  That’s the message Comrade , don’t go off script .
  
  2 0
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  March 31, 2020 6:52pm
Local Miller

And now we have Chris Carhil proposing a curfew. And to make it even more scary, people are supporting him. How quickly people are prepared to give up the liberty.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-police-association-s-chris-cahill-calls-for-curfew-to-ease-pressure-on-officers-during-lockdown.html
9 2
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March 31, 2020 3:23pm
Nickc2

Wow, if you are undertaking university research on a taxpayer grant, you can come up with amazing findings such as this:

https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/study-covid-19-affects-menwomen-more-than-all-other-genders-combined.html
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March 31, 2020 3:29pm
rangitoto

Don’t try this at home folks:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52094804

A PHD doesn’t make you immune from stupidity.
6 0
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March 31, 2020 4:15pm
WaveyDavey

Anyone know if the $3bn slush fund is on hold?
6 1
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March 31, 2020 4:46pm
- Poppa
  
  No Wavey it will be increased, you know why. Peters needs the votes
  
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  March 31, 2020 5:43pm
Maggy Wassilieff

So now our PM admits that NZ has to do more testing.

So now our PM admits that our Health Department has to widen the criteria for testing.

Will our MSM admit that Simon Bridges was in the right back in mid March when he was calling for more tests and a wider criteria for testing?
https://www.national.org.nz/coronavirus_tests_should_be_available_to_more_kiwis
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March 31, 2020 5:44pm
- cmm
  
  But the question is still how.
  
  The toybox is almost empty.
  
  As they say, talk is cheap…
  
  6 3
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  March 31, 2020 5:54pm
  - RW Capitalist
    
    Means she was not ready, although there were WEEKS of notice.
    She called this lock down BECAUSE they had no other option and they knew they weren’t ready.
    This showed a lack of planning
    a lack of foresight
    a lack of willingness to even look at what might work
    they just went straight to lock down.
    
    6 1
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    March 31, 2020 6:28pm
Shunda barunda

For those that suggest peak infection has already occurred, fine, do the antibody tests as soon as possible, but i think there is a fatal flaw in this argument. For this hypothesis to be correct exponential growth of infections is an essential assumption, a very high R0 is necessary. If this is the case then any analysis of this exponential growth within the allowable time frame would mean that the vast majority of people would have to have been infected within the last 2 weeks. If that is the case then the testing would show a positive rate north of 50% because most people would still have a viral load. The testing in all countries (as far as I am aware) does not show this high positive to negative ratio, nor has it ever. So rather than them having recovered from covid19 the negative tested people have likely not contracted it at all.
It also doesn’t make sense for clusters that have emerged from gatherings like weddings or conferences. One infected person goes to said event and then a few dozen people get sick, the ratio is too high if the disease is as mild as suggested.
If this hypthesis is correct then the rate of new infections will evaporate in a matter of days, not weeks. The only explanation under this hypothesis for the overwhelmed health systems is that those regions/nations have already passed well beyond peak infection and the rate of hospitalizations is a consequence of the rapid spread of the virus, not it’s lethality.
I am sorry, but I’m calling bullshit on this, it seems to be highly improbable based on what we are observing. There is currently no evidence to suggest that the majority of people have already been infected, therefore caution is the correct response.
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March 31, 2020 5:56pm
- MrTips
  
  It is reasonable to assume that actual infections outnumber detected infections by a minimum of 3:1. It could even be 300:1, but let’s say 3:1.
  
  That’s means we actually have 2000 cases. It also means we won’t have peaked until we get to about 300,000 detected cases (half of the detected bell curve) if we expect 2,000,000 total (detected and undetected). This is pretty much what happened with H1N1 swine flu.
  
  647 to 300,000 is a long way to go, but of course it will be less if social restrictions and hygiene behaviour are followed. We are nowhere near the peak either way.
  
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  March 31, 2020 6:14pm
RW Capitalist

Dumb things I saw today.
Supermarket , to limit numbers in store, force people to queue and thereforestand closer together than if they were in the store.
A reporter (again), standing on the beach (with camera man) in Queenstown to tell us that a nurse has covid 19.
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March 31, 2020 6:10pm
rangitoto

Kindness is now forbidden. You must nark on your neighbours instead.
4 0
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March 31, 2020 6:15pm
RW Capitalist

Anti malaria drugs, had some success in treating covid 19.
So Trump is releasing it and the FDA has approved it.
Fabulous…but some intern Dr disagrees and he is being touted as some kind of expert….really.
But we know, they will vilify Trump if there isn’t 100% success and cures cancer too.
I’m expecting, hopefully 10%, which would be enormous.
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March 31, 2020 6:24pm
RW Capitalist

My wife has PAH (pulmonary arterial hypertension) and chronic heart failure.
She receive a call from her nurse just before this lock down, to say her visits, to assess her worsening condition, had been cancelled.
Not just that, we have heard NOTHING from the DHB since.
Surely she is an acute case that should be monitored?
BUT NOTHING.
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March 31, 2020 6:34pm
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  You need to ring your GP and Hospital tomorrow and demand attention immediately.
  
  Failing that, email your MP with your complaint and send a copy to the Chairperson of your DHB.
  
  Keep a record of all your attempts to contact authorities.
  
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  March 31, 2020 7:56pm
RW Capitalist

NZ Business Confidence (March) : -63.5 (prior -19.4)
Tue 31 Mar 2020 00:00:23 GMT
as if -19.4 was good.
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March 31, 2020 6:36pm
- krazykiwi
  
  Exactly. This shambolic government will brazenly blame the shocking state of our economy on covid-19, when the reality was things were extremely grim well before.
  
  Remember, every Labour government since 1970 has left office with NZ in recession. Every. Single One.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:28pm
Herodotus

Has there ever been a 3 year 1 term period that has seen so much destruction of wealth within NZ ?
There still is 6+ months of this term to run out.
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March 31, 2020 9:13pm
- krazykiwi
  
  No. And the seventh Labour government will have to mis-manage in a spectacularly unprecedented fashion to ellipse the work of the sixth Labour government that we are currently cringing under.
  
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  March 31, 2020 10:34pm

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