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March 30, 2020 8:00am by Kokila Patel

General Debate 30 March 2020

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General Debate

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PhilBest

Peter Hitchens is brother of the late Christopher. He might not be familiar to Kiwibloggers. This podcast with James Delingpole is both one of the best things you can spend some time on right now, and a good introduction to Peter – who IMHO is going to be vindicated over his contrarian stance on COVID-19

https://delingpole.podbean.com/e/delingpod-64-peter-hitchens-special/

Hope Mr Farrar has a listen himself and maybe does a posting covering the arguments involved. Some of us have been posting links to published analysis of the kind Peter Hitchens is referring to.
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March 30, 2020 8:00am
- PhilBest
  
  One of the most important points: it is essential that after this is over, it is properly investigated (Royal Commission?) just how contagious and deadly this disease was. We need to do a study of antibodies in a random subset of the population.
  
  Globally, very shoddy statistical analysis based on the wrong raw numbers, has led to “bring on Great Depression II” policy imposition. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
  
  The MSM are very responsible for who they selectively choose to listen to, and if they don’t even understand the logic of the people saying the right thing, we need journalists with more brains. In future the MSM needs to learn where to find the skeptics with proven logic skills.
  
  The other lesson is that we should spend public money establishing “ramp-up Intensive Care” capacity. This cannot possibly be more than a fraction as costly as shutting the economy and needing to go deep into the red for “stimulus”.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:33am
  - KevO'Brien
    
    There must be plenty of people out there with the logic and maths skills to call out bad sampling and inferences.
    The scary scenario suits the controllers and their media mates. Ideology and feelingz prevails over applied sense.
    Qui bono?
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:01am
    - Ian Hawthorn
      
      Looks like we are starting to turn the curve. We might be just about the only country in the world in a position to actually shut this thing down. Almost all of our cases are still people coming in from overseas or those directly connected to them. There is so far minimal community spread.
      
      If we do manage to shut this down, we are going to have to keep the borders closed for 18 months until a vaccine is produced. Anyone coming in will need to undergo a MANDATORY two week isolation (not a nice voluntary “here is a pamphlet off you go” one) in a dedicated isolation facility. To go through all this pain only to open the borders and start it all up again would be the height of irresponsibility and foolishness.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:21am
      - Odakyu-sen
        
        I hope we don’t nuke our economy to kill the virus in this country.
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:37am
      - KevO'Brien
        
        You’re suggesting a cure probably worse than the disease. It will just be another seasonal virus to dodge as best we can. Us oldies do that every year, many younger ones get a bit crook and are not much bothered. Natural immunity will arise for most.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:06am
      - Classic Liberal
        
        The borders don’t need to be ‘kept closed for 18 months’. All arrivals just need to go into quarantine if we keep aiming at ‘elimination’. Then they can go about NZ business or study or tourism. For people planning to spend a few months or years here, that would make sense.
        
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        March 30, 2020 11:31am
      - kowtow
        
        Ody
        
        Hitchens in that podcast used the metaphor of the patient with ‘flu , his doctor recommended amputating a leg as a cure, and he was duly knobbled.
        
        Fortunately for the patient his flu cleared……..
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:54pm
  - Tony Norriss
    
    Looking at the current state of play:
    
    Over 500 confirmed cases. A handful of hospitalisations. And one death.
    
    The death rate is therefore about 0.2%. Hardly different to seasonal flu, us it?
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:13am
    - Ian Hawthorn
      
      0.002 x 4,500,000 = 9000
      
      And 0.002 is likely to be optimistic. So far most of the NZ cases are people travelling from overseas. These don’t represent the entire population. They tend to be more active, younger and healthier than the population at large. The death rate for the population as a whole is likely to be much larger.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:33am
      - KevO'Brien
        
        The 0.2% matches other projections.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:08am
      - kloyd0306
        
        Your figure of 9000 assumes that the whole country contracts the virus.
        Hope you’re not a statistician.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:19am
      - fernglas
        
        All fallacious reasoning. No-one knows how many people have had the virus without reporting it, nor how many are asymptomatic, so any mortality figures are erroneous. The best thing to do would be properly randomised testing of a sample of the entire population to see how many have antibodies. That way you could determine with some degree of accuracy what the overall mortality rate is. At the moment there are too many armchair warriors and irresponsible headline-seeking media who are simply putting the fear of god into everyone.
        
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        March 30, 2020 11:19am
      - cmm
        
        It is really hard to actually make anything like a solid estimate yet, but we can make an expected high side guess as follows:
        
        1) Take the current Italian death numbers: 10,000. Out of 60 million population that’s 0.016%
        2) Allow that they are going to treble from where they are now because more will die. That seems excessive to me, but, hey: x3
        3) Size to NZ population. divide by 12.
        
        10,000 x 3 / 12 = 2,500
        
        So, for NZ we can expect 2500 to be a very high estimate.
        
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        March 30, 2020 11:51am
      - Ian Hawthorn
        
        As Nigel Kearney has just reminded us you can’t just divide deaths by cases to get a death rate. Those among the current cases who will die have not yet done so. That makes 0.2% a massive UNDERestimate. My applying it to the total population is small beans compared to this. In any case I was just giving a rough magnitude estimate to show that even 0.2% is still a lot of deaths.
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:40pm
      - cmm
        
        0.2% of what? 0/2% of infected is likely a lot smaller than 0.2% of the entire population.
        
        0.2% of the population is 1 in 500. Italy is currently running at 1 in 6,000 only 1/12th of that. Of course there will be more, but 12x the current Italian deaths sounds a bit keen.
        
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        March 30, 2020 1:02pm
      - Ian Boag
        
        @cmm
        
        The number to use for Italy is more like 10m not 60. That’s how many people there are in Lombardy. It’s about the same as the number in Wuhan give or take a bit …..
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:41pm
      - cmm
        
        Boag: But the number for Italy is from the whole of Italy, not just Lombardy.
        
        Even if we zoom and cherry-pick the deaths in Lombardy: Lombardy = 10M people and 6,000 deaths. That is still only 600/million (0.06%). Scaled to NZ that is less than 3000 deaths.
        
        Now what are the odds we’re going to be worse than the worst province in the worst impacted country in the world?
        
        Possible, not probable!
        
        Perhaps we’re more like Calabria in the SOuth of Italy (similar landscape, sea on both sides, away from pollution). Population 2M, deaths 250. Scaled to NZ that would be 625 deaths so far.
        
        Or Tuscany, even lower…
        
        If you want to cherry pick, then two can play this game.
        
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        March 30, 2020 3:32pm
      - Ian Boag
        
        @cmm
        
        Wasn’t trying to nit/cherry pick. Sorry if it seemed that way. I hadn’t dug past Lombardy and I figured that on that basis – discounting for the climate clean air low pop density etc, we would be in the thousand or two ballpark. We would be in a bit of a state here if we had already had 600 deaths anyway ….
        
        Our mutual wild guesses are not an order of magnitude apart …. not that it changes anything.
        
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        March 30, 2020 4:36pm
    - Nigel Kearney
      
      To get an accurate death rate, the number of deaths should be divided by the number who had it and are now either recovered or dead, not including those still sick.
      
      Also, the seasonal flu does not overwhelm our health system, due to vaccinations, lower volumes, and lower severity.
      
      There are really two death rates. The one where people have received proper treatment, and the one where the health system has been overloaded and failed to cope. You don’t produce a useful figure by adding those together. But it’s still much worse than the flu.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:41am
      - CJames
        
        You are correct Nigel. There has been no work on how many people have got the antigens and were asymptomatic. There has been no general population testing.
        If one takes the ship that Nic Lewis analysed, maybe 75% of the people never got sick enough to test and there was an age related bias to correct for. That means the number of people infected in NZ could be 2-5000. Changes the stats a lot.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:47am
      - Fletch
        
        Yeh, I saw a youtube video on it last night. How to tell if we are beating it. It looks like only China, Japan and South Korea so far are trending down.
        
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:00pm
      - Ed Snack
        
        Didn’t they test everyone on board that ship ? Passengers and Crew ?
        
        And figures so far assume that there is no effective treatment. It still lacks full scientific validation, but it seems to me that NOT treating patients with Chloroquine and antibiotic is a dereliction of care from what we have seen.
        
        And masks, get everyone masks and make them sort of mandatory when in person to person interactions. Countries with widespread mask wearing like Taiwan, Singapore, and Korea have fared far better in terms of community spread. I discount the Chinese numbers as I feel that they are simply unreliable, and deliberately so.
        
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        March 30, 2020 1:09pm
    - Andrew Worth
      
      On average around the world deaths lag diagnosis by about 10 days – less than 10 days if diagnosis is delayed, more than 10 days if people are diagnosed with early testing.
      
      So if you want a good idea of the death rate compare the current number of deaths with the number diagnosed with the disease 10 days ago.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:52am
      - Classic Liberal
        
        We won’t really know the death rate until there is a widely used antibody test and we see how many people have already had it and developed immunity. As Hitchens says: many people are saying ‘yes, I had the symptoms a few months ago, but just assumed it was a normal flu’.
        
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        March 30, 2020 11:39am
      - Andrew Worth
        
        Hitchins is talking crap, though undoubtedly there are many cases still undetected there are not huge undetected clusters, such clusters would have shown up as a substantial increase in serious flu-like illness.
        If you had flu-like symptoms in Britain months ago you had the flu.
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:25pm
  - oldpark
    
    @PhilBest
    You are so on to it . Right now on Magic Talk Peter Williams is on to it . Suggest Kiwibloggers tune into Peter right now . Impression might be we are being gamed on the facts and figures on who or what has or had the Lurgy and recovered . Seems 2+2 is not making 4 . Whats up Doc.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:24am
    - fernglas
      
      Why do people give the time of day to the opinions of a former sports journalist and newsreader other than that those views conform with their own? Has anyone wondered why those views conform with theirs? Are they genuine or just the party line?
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:21am
  - Dave Mann
    
    We need journalists with more brains
    
    We sure do. Today some idiot pretending to be an ‘expert’ was reported thus:
    
    (Bloomberg) – The deaths in the U.S. could reach 200,000, said Anthony Fauci, an infectious disease expert, and described the estimate as a moving target.
    
    I won’t bother posting a link because the story has been erased (404) as somebody with some intelligence has obviously come to their senses.
    
    200,000 possible deaths? Really? The whole world has seen ‘only’ 30,000 deaths so far and almost every country has mobilised to fight it with some degree of lockdown.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:31am
    - Simon Gotlieb
      
      Anthony Fauci is an American physician and immunologist who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984.
      So, he’s an idiot pretending to be an expert eh? He’s also the fellow at the side of Donald Trump in the pressers.
      We will see who is the expert and how is the idiot eh? I’d be more inclined to go with somebody with his experience than a keyboard warrior.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:39am
      - Dave Mann
        
        I don’t really care about where he stands in the the pecking order, frankly. Either he has been misreported or he’s pulling figures out of his arse.
        
        You don’t need a PhD to realise that a possible 200,000 deaths in the USA alone is total bullshit.
        
        What’s happened to ordinary common sense? Where does this nitwit stand on global warming?
        
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        March 30, 2020 1:33pm
    - IC5000
      
      > 200,000 possible deaths? Really?
      
      There a story floating around which says that tens of thousands of funeral urns have been distributed in Wuhan for people to pick up. Calculations suggest that 40,000 urns are in use.
      
      Obviously you could take the chinese death number at face value but you’d be a special kind of fool to believe that.
      
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      March 30, 2020 4:25pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Fauci actually said there could potentially be between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths related to the coronavirus and millions of cases, but added: “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target, that you could so easily be wrong.”
        But 10,000 deaths in Italy so far would suggest the number of fatalities in the US will not be trivial.
        
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        March 30, 2020 5:06pm
      - IC5000
        
        Fuck this shit.
        
        Idiots talking about ‘common sense’ are just trying to talk themselves into believing the best case scenario.
        
        You don’t need a PhD to know the CCP are lying fuckers but yeah keep on hoovering the bullshit
        
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        March 30, 2020 7:40pm
      - Dave Mann
        
        FFS people, get a grip.
        
        It’s a fucking FLU.
        
        38,000 people have died of this worldwide. Out of 7.8 BILLION!
        
        Many of the deaths have been people with weakened immune systems from pre-existing and unrelated conditions.
        
        There is no way of telling how many people are infected with this because the testing procedures are either lax or seriously under-reported.
        
        So far ONE person has died in New Zealand. Poor woman…. but she was 70 and probably had some other pre-existing condition which weakened her resistance.
        
        On the basis of 600 people with a bit of a flu, New Zealand is moving to completely destroy its economy and its social cohesion.
        
        What a clusterfuck. Let’s just get back to global warming as a panicfest…. at least that didn’t completely screw our whole society.
        
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        March 30, 2020 8:52pm
    - IC5000
      
      I’d take the opinion of a doctor who specialised in immunology and infectious disease anyday over some random.
      
      Where did you get your MD?
      
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      March 31, 2020 12:03am
  - Michael NZ
    
    I Agree Phil Best, Jim Geraty wrote a good piece on it at NR.
    
    https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devastating-lies/
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:03pm
- Brian McDonald
  
  @Phil: Peter Hitchins is talking about analysing the figures later to see if there was any need to take the current measures. That is going to happen, it has already said there will be a Royal Commission something I’m sure any new Government will honour. If the steps the country has taken are found to have been unnecessary then something will have been learned for the future across a broad range of spectrums and the rebuild will be speedier.
  And if they are found to have been necessary at least in some form (say like a stocktake of items not in motion and capable of being correctly counted – or at the other end that lives were saved), some of us will say ‘ let’s get on with it.’
  As for the spike in Italy and the talk about its elderly population and pollution, I’d be interested to see the figures now compared to previous years.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:28am
  - Paulus
    
    There will be no Royal Commission until after any election, whenever that is held.
    
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    March 30, 2020 1:41pm
    - lastmanstanding
      
      Unless in hindsight the results show the Government to be totally vindicated there will no Commission Royal or otherwise.
      And the Opposition will go along with it knowing that they might find themselves in the same position in the future.
      
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      March 30, 2020 2:35pm
  - Nickc2
    
    @Dave Mann
    Not yet, its still a work in progress. They are pissed off, the Chinese beat them to destroying our financial system.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:50pm
- Alboy
  
  Thanks for sharing that link, really nice to know
  there are other like minded people. Should be required listening for all, if only to make people think.
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:16am
- curry4me
  
  PhilBest: Thanks for posting. I like them both.
  
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  March 30, 2020 1:52pm
mikenmildagain

Happy 75th birthday to Eric Clapton:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX5USg8_1gA
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March 30, 2020 8:01am
- Belinda
  
  Greetings comrades. What are your plans for today?
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:40am
Maggy Wassilieff

So, our first Covid-19 death is from community transmission

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120663168/coronavirus-family-of-the-new-zealands-first-death-have-no-idea-how-she-contracted-covid19
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March 30, 2020 8:02am
- PhilBest
  
  Yep, and as we are largely missing in publicized analysis of this pandemic, hundreds or even thousands of people in NZ almost certainly had it already by the time “confirmed case 1” was confirmed.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:05am
  - MCos
    
    There’s all sorts of information on the Heath Department web site about known cases.
    Here’s an analysis of each know infected person. Not everything, but some broad information.
    I would expect that if you had contact with one of them you would know.
    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details
    
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    March 30, 2020 8:38am
    - Simon
      
      “There’s all sorts of information on the Heath Department web site about known cases.”
      
      Lol. – yep all sorts of “information “
      
      According to Ministry of Health, NZs had 50 recover from #coronavirus.
      The definition of recovery is being symptom free for 14days or more.
      Problem is, 14days ago NZ only had 5 cases.
      So either MoH isnt adhering to it’s own definition or someone’s getting cute with numbers #nzpo
      
      https://twitter.com/GeoffsNZViews
      
      “I would expect that if you had contact with one of them you would know.“
      
      Glorious. Comrade after 40 years of state information you will also be tearing down the wall with your bare hands along with the rest of us
      
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      March 30, 2020 8:49am
      - MCos
        
        Where did you get the Health Department’s ‘definition of recovery’?
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:28am
      - Ian Hawthorn
        
        It is possible to have the disease while overseas and return to NZ when recovered.
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:41am
      - Nigel Kearney
        
        It’s very likely we had more than 50 cases 14 days ago, made up of:
        
        – those who had tested positive
        – those whose test results had not come back yet
        – those with symptoms not yet tested
        – those who recovered without ever being tested
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:56am
      - arkhad
        
        I recall seeing that ‘symptom free for 14 days definition’ and having the same concerns regarding then recovered numbers not adding up. For the life of me now I cannot recall or find where I read it. Can you post a link?
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:05am
    - jimbo3
      
      Given the number of tourists we have had through the country since December it is impossible that it has not spread through the community. Particularly in Auckland rotorua and queenstown. The only reason we are not recording greater numbers of infection is the lack of testing.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:54am
      - Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
        
        I would like to know how many tests have been done? I am guessing not nearly enough.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:38am
    - Brian McDonald
      
      Thanks Mcos, have yet to read fully but females dominate the most recent days.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:31am
  - Ian Hawthorn
    
    Hundreds or thousands having it by the time of confirmed case one is not consistent with the fact that a high proportion of current observed cases still have a direct overseas connection. This is almost certainly FALSE.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:58am
    - Brian Marshall
      
      Not necessarily. Much testing of possible wu-flu victims has been limited to those that had traveled from known hotspots or had close contact with confirmed cases. If you don’t fit that criteria, it’s been unlikely till very recently that you’d get tested for it. We don’t know how many positive people have had it and not shown any symptoms. To get an idea, you’d need to do a large enough random survey of people and test for anti-bodies, but that’s for when demand for testing is not as high.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:58am
    - Ed Snack
      
      Brian has a point Ian. Testing in NZ has been restricted to people classified as at risk. If you have no known contact with a case and no overseas travel, you’re not tested unless your symptoms are severe.
      
      So if half or so of all cases are asymptomatic, and most of the rest are mild (as per Icelandic data) then there *may* be a lot more cases, untested.
      
      But you could be correct, without a proper random survey, we just don’t know. Everyone but everyone is just guessing right now, based on their “Bayesian priors” and getting the answer they want.
      
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      March 30, 2020 1:22pm
- cmm
  
  Sad for her friends and family.
  
  21 medical staff are now in self-isolation due to them not detecting this in time. We can’t afford to lose our effective medical staff numbers like that.
  
  That said, early enough infection of medical staff that are not actually in the risk category themselves might build a core of immune medical staff.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:16am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    As long as the virus doesn’t kill our health workers before they develop immunity
    https://www.newsweek.com/more-50-doctors-italy-have-now-died-coronavirus-1494781
    
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    March 30, 2020 8:27am
    - bruceavon
      
      Yes. some people, and I used to be one them 2 weeks ago, think we are overreacting and we should let it go and save the economy etc. but when you look at Italy. Very grim. And this is with them in lockdown for a while. imagine if they had just let it go. scenes from the Spanish influenza come to mind.
      
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      March 30, 2020 8:34am
      - PhilBest
        
        There are several special factors there that can be assumed NZ does not suffer from.
        
        Northern Italy is one of the first world’s most polluted regions, creating co-morbidities.
        
        It had massive inbound flows of seasonal workers from China.
        
        There was a frenzy of P.C. propaganda “against xenophobia” in the early stages that encouraged people to “hug a Chinese person today”.
        
        25% of the population of Italy is over 64.
        
        They have high rates of smoking.
        
        They have a lot of old and insanitary apartment housing, and high urban density.
        
        They have a cultural tradition (partly economic necessity) that three generations of a family crowd in under a single roof.
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:03am
      - David George
        
        Yes, and they have a propensity to kiss and hug anything that moves.
        I guess the hongi mightn’t be so popular henceforth, done properly there is an exchange of air between the participants I believe. No thanks!
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:12am
      - PhilBest
        
        Thanks for that, David! Something else I just picked up from another commenter: Italy is not that great for ICU beds per capita.
        
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries-with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/#6d33a86e7f86
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:10pm
    - cmm
      
      Maggy, remember that there are something like 350k doctors in Italy, (400k inc. dentists etc) , so 50 is small.
      
      Stress and overwork also increase vulnerability to all diseases.
      
      Again though, how many of those 50 are “dying from” and how many are “dying with”?
      
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      March 30, 2020 8:50am
      - alex Masterley
        
        The “dying with” issue is most important.
        Yet it is ignored in the rush.
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:43am
      - cmm
        
        Further to that: here in NZ we have 28000 or so registered doctors.
        
        Scaled to our size, that 50 dead docs in Italy would be the same as 4 here.
        
        Sad for the families and all, but not really going to move the needle.
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:44am
    - rangitoto
      
      The death rates vary a lot by country. Someone one was touting the idea that the death rates correspond to air pollution levels.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:54am
      - PhilBest
        
        There’s a lot in that. Generally, how sanitary are the conditions in which the vulnerable elderly live? Look at the “vibrant urbanism” in Old Europe that our urban planners love, and a lot of it looks like a Victorian era slum with a coat of bright paint on it. The pictures tell 1000 words now. Burning coal and wood on fireplaces, and an absence of airconditioning and heat pumps, that is really a disgrace to a first-world country.
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:09pm
      - cmm
        
        If pneumonia is the primary death mechanism then clearly anything that makes your lungs worse is going to make things worse.
        
        That includes smoking rates (high in Italy, especially older people), air pollution, crowded living conditions and preexisting conditions (somewhere around 90% of deaths in Italy have preexisting conditions). All of these are bad in Italy.
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:55pm
      - kowtow
        
        Apparently a lot could do with how the virus got into the communidy in question.
        
        In Norhtern Italy , with a large Chinese population and tourists , it came in quick and early and was undiagnosed as it was the height of flu season. Once it got into the medical system unrecognised it spread like wildfire and particularly effected the old folks homes.
        
        In Austria, Germany and Scandanavia it is supposed to have come in via the ski resorts . Ski resorts don’t attrct the elderly , in fact it’s younger fitter bastards there who have and who’re more naturally resilient. Apparently in those countries the average age of infected is mid 40s ,so less mortality , in Italy it’s way higher so more deaths.
        
        Also the Germans weren’t caught off guard , have more testing and lots more ICU beds than either the Italisns or French . So their younger patients are getting better treatment…..
        
        Each country has its own unique circumstance.
        
        And yes the literature is pointing to other factors such as pollution , smoking and cultural practises such as touching and kissing which the Latins are into and the Nordics aren’t ( except in private)
        
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        March 30, 2020 3:19pm
    - Sacha
      
      I wouldn’t mind getting a ‘cold’ and sore throat for a few days if it meant I was immune. I am in my 80’s and have never had the flu, or a flu injection. Haven’t had a ‘cold’ in years, but I do get hay fever which has been bad this dry summer because of all the dust.
      I put my good health down to the fact that I worked for over 50 years in hospitals, 30 of then in ICUs and EDs. . . . . . . and accumulated immunities.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:19am
  - Tony Stuart
    
    Especially at a small hospital such as Greymouth, where staff numbers are already low.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:00am
    - James Stephenson
      
      A small hospital like Greymouth, where there’s a brand new hospital that they could have moved into by now if the DHB has actually planned for doing that
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:50am
  - Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
    
    just wondering, are the protestors at Ihuamtao still there or have they returned home? Did they get their deal, or has that convienantly been not covered by lamestream media?
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:54am
- CJames
  
  No – she had underlying health problems as does the other case in intensive care. Did she die of it, or just with it. Otherwise that death is just adding to the panicfest.
  This paper here was instructive to show why the “death toll” may be vastly inflated.
  https://www.statschat.org.nz/2020/03/23/another-reason-why-we-dont-know-the-covid-19-mortality-rate/
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:19am
  - Raphael
    
    Project Veritas was saying that the only people being tested in New York are those who are are in hospital.
    
    Which means that only those sick enough to go to the hospital are being tested.
    Which means the # of infected is probably much higher, and means that the mortality rate is probably much lower.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:20am
    - Evadne
      
      Similar in the UK. You have to be very sick, highly at risk, or constitutionally important (eg Boris, Charles) to get tested.
      
      I have family in UK, including some over 70. Several have almost certainly had it (or are suffering now) – all the textbook symptoms in the right order. In bed for a week at home. No health or public official of any kind (at any level) is vaguely interested in hearing about it, reporting it, or recording it, let alone testing. Just told to stay home. Oh, and there’s an app you can use, if you’re well enough and savvy enough to figure it out when you’re fatigued and feverish. And have the right sort of phone.
      
      One current UK modelling estimate suggests a million might have had it already. If so, the case fatality rate will be very much lower than the screaming headlines suggest.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:09am
    - PhilBest
      
      One hospital at least, in NY, recently started testing “absolutely everyone who comes in for everything” including accidents, and they find a far high incidence of infections than the official “confirmed” rate implies. There is a gradual trickle of evidence of this kind coming through.
      
      As a German Professor of IMicrobiology has been banging on about for days, “Has there been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?”
      
      And if not, why not? What IS it that “the powers that be “DON’T WANT TO KNOW?
      
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      March 30, 2020 2:22pm
  - DeepBlue
    
    In this case I would say she died ‘of it’. She was active and fit before. Her COPD would have meant she had no spare lung capacity to fight this virus. Had she not got the virus she could have expected to live quite some years yet.
    
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    March 30, 2020 1:45pm
- KevO'Brien
  
  The victim also met the expected risk criteria: age and other advanced health issues.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:03am
pdm

How many protestors remain in their `bubble’ at Ihumatao and how many Police are on site?

All seems to have gone quiet on this festering issue.
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March 30, 2020 8:02am
- Chuck Bird
  
  The money probably quietly changed hands.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:10am
  - pdm
    
    Robbo probably filched the $40m approx under cover of Coronavirus.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:42am
- davidp
  
  I read that Ihumatao was one of the places vigilantes had set up a road block.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:10am
PhilBest

Delingpole himself, as he says, has had, and recovered from COVID-19. He says his 84 year old father’s opinion is that it will be more fatal to many elderly people, to deprive them of their “use it or lose it” daily routine, than COVID-19 will be.
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March 30, 2020 8:02am
- Evadne
  
  I could not agree more. I worry about this so much more than covid for my aged loved ones.
  
  If we purposely wanted to kill off our elderly (or shorten their lifespans) we’d create rules that they all had to stay in their rooms alone – no physical activity, so social activity, no stimulation, no family.
  
  When this is all over, they’ll be frail, confused, lethargic and unwell.
  
  There’s a reason rest homes and retirement villages invest in activities co-ordinators, occupational therapists, outings, exercise, communal activities, meals together etc.
  
  Even zoos know they need to provide this to their animals if they want to keep them healthy.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:18am
- Mummy
  
  Yep my 92 year old dad has just been to the supermarket to stock up for him and the cat. He lives alone in his own place having lost mum 8 months ago from pneumonia after a cold. A trip out like that does more for his mental health than worrying about catching the lurgy.
  
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  March 30, 2020 12:56pm
Luke Piewalker

Hey Winston – how are the SFO meetings going?
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March 30, 2020 8:02am
- pdm
  
  Luke – the SFO are not an essential organisation so they are all locked down at home.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:44am
  - dave_c_
    
    Obviously never heard of ‘working from home’
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:10am
Greg Ettridge

It is very hard to believe facts that are coming to hand
First case in China January 10
Australia January 24
New Zealand February 27
So it was 47 days between Australia and NZ getting first reported infection.
Present days to double reported infections
Worst in the world Turkey 2.01 days
New Zealand 2.5
USA 3
Australia 3.9
Italy 6.2
China 37
How is it possible 21 hospital staff treat a person for days without appropriate protection waiting days for test result, kits that give a result in under an hour now available.
How is it possible that Hobbiton was permitted to trade until March 21, Matamata now has a huge cluster that will break out, the whole town needs testing.
When will Kosher and Halal meat be available in every supermarket in New Zealand or will these shops open.
These are interesting times.
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March 30, 2020 8:05am
- PhilBest
  
  “Reported” cases in all cases, start from “people who feel crook, noticing the COVID publicity and actually getting themselves tested”. Before that, any number of people were self-treating, or getting the standard quick cheap treatment from their GP for the snuffles, without feeling particularly scared or bothered. It is plausible that hundreds or even thousands of people already had COVID-19 before the first confirmed case – and the blip hadn’t even aroused special comment from the medical authorities.
  
  This is based on the infection rate of those evacuated from Wuhan, who were tested in toto, extrapolated to the entire population of Wuhan, and then estimating the spread via travel and infection, based on what is known for “confirmed cases”. The horse had already bolted well before anyone shut the stable door.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:12am
- Dougal10
  
  At what stage does the lockdown need to be reviewed. Is it when the deaths at home (because people don’t want to be separated from their family’s) from other outcomes like heart attacks etc exceed those from covid19 in a hospital
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:13am
- Dougal10
  
  Most meat sold in NZ is actually Halal slaughtered anyway you are just not told about it.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:16am
  - Tricati
    
    Correct, and the freezing works have to Pay FINZ a fee for Halal certification to allow export to Muslim country’s.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:40am
- Jaundiced
  
  The meat in our supermarkets (apart from bacon) is all halal, whether we like it or not
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:18am
  - Captain Mainwaring
    
    So when the bacon is halal slaughtered all will be well.
    
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    March 30, 2020 8:39am
  - Lance
    
    Bacon can be purchased in Israel at some outlets… it’s called “desert chicken”.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:18am
  - gravedodger
    
    I think that is not quite true, I am informed most Countdown South Island Meat is sourced from an Ashburton Facility that is not halal licenced, ie has not funded any terrorist activity internationally.
    OTOH New world source most of their butchery from Silver Fern Farms and it is butchered according to the dictates of the Islamic Faith with the accompanying income stream diverted to where an Imam decides appropriate!
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:09am
    - Simon Gotlieb
      
      Drawing a long bow insinuating that Halal licensing fees are supporting terrorism gravedodger. I thought we were over all that nonsense?
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:45am
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Over that nonsense? On Kiwiblog?
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:29pm
      - freethinker
        
        True or not the fees are being paid by Kiwis and not being used for their benefit.
        
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        March 30, 2020 1:51pm
  - Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
    
    dont forget dairy products being all halal and kosher. There is even some daiory products which are super kosher (whatever that means). Funny how the same product can be both halal and kosher…..
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:29am
    - Simon Gotlieb
      
      Hope this helps Mickey.
      http://kosher-germany.com/koshergermany/en/basic-kosher-concepts
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:47am
    - Ed Snack
      
      Not funny, based on the same original cultural rules. In fact for Jews, if Kosher isn’t available, Halal is an acceptable substitute, at least for some. The reverse is never acceptable I believe, though that may be wrong for some.
      
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      March 30, 2020 1:35pm
      - Batman
        
        Probably down to the prayer uttered when the animal is killed. Kosher obviously won’t have that.
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:22pm
- emmess
  
  Yes, I was juist thinking the same.
  I remote work closely with an Australian, who I speak with almost every workday. A couple of weeks ago, I was feeling reasonably secure that our outbreak was a couple of weeks behind Australia and was likely to be contained. Now at the rate of growth, we are likely to pass Australia on a per capita basis in a few days. This is mainly due to the fact that the border security has been so weak, the strict lockdown has perhaps been an overreaction to that failure.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:29am
- Sofia
  
  Greg Ettridge – When will Kosher and Halal meat be available in every supermarket in New Zealand or will these shops open.
  Dougal10 – Most meat sold in NZ is actually Halal slaughtered anyway you are just not told about it.
  
  Perhaps there needs to be an investigation into Halal Certification of meat in New Zealand, its costs to the country and who is paying, if meat marked halal (most apparently is) in supermarkets is not halal-enough for Muslims to buy it.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:40am
  - Ruahine
    
    This Halal Certification rort has been going on in New Zealand for quite some time. Mainly because the Meat processing companies did not want to run separate processing facilities for different markets.
    Yes when you go and buy your meat unless pig meat you pay the Halal Fee to local Muslim Organisations.
    
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    March 30, 2020 8:52am
    - PhilBest
      
      THIS is an absolutely fantastic long read on this very point:
      
      “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”
      By the esteemed Nassim Nicholas Taleb
      
      https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:10am
    - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
      
      Time to introduce a Halal Tax on rich pricks.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:34am
- BananaLlama
  
  There is a serious lack of testing and has been for months. People i know personally most likely had Covid but were unable to get tested. They recovered and are not counted in the statistics.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:48am
- KevO'Brien
  
  What about Polynesian meat like mutton flaps that is not available in supermarkets?
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:07am
  - PhilBest
    
    Generally Pak N Save’s in the regions where there are a lot of Polynesians, do have Mutton Flaps, Povi Massima, etc
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:11am
    - mark15
      
      Our pak n save has live sparrows for sale
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:00am
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Are they garnished with larks’ vomit?
        https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2odo4b
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:33am
      - Jack5
        
        z
        
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        March 30, 2020 1:25pm
    - KevO'Brien
      
      Pleased to hear it.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:09am
- hullkiwi
  
  Sorry to be picky , but Greg your timeline is not correct. The first reported case in Chkna was 2nd December, 31 December the Chinese advised the WHO they had a problem. Two days later China were able to provide the WHO and other medical authorities with the genetic structure of the virus.
  
  The first case in NZ was reported at 5.30pm Friday 28/02/2020. That person came back from Iran.
  
  The rest as they say is history.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:12am
- Brian McDonald
  
  China reported the outbreak to WHO on 29th December.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:34am
- Ed Snack
  
  As places are all testing at different rates and on different criteria, those “statistics” are near worthless. If you detrend them for the testing rate per head you’ll get closer, but there’ll still be large variations caused by criteria.
  
  NZ has ramped up testing a lot, and that combined with the delay in getting results means that it is likely that much of increase is from the increase in testing not an increase in infections.
  
  But hard to tell.
  
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  March 30, 2020 1:32pm
alloytoo

On day one of the lock down I had to drop a business call to stop the 5 year old paying with matches…….
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March 30, 2020 8:05am
- MCos
  
  Didn’t know you could still buy matches
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:10pm
MT_Tinman

One dead.

How many have died from influenza in the same period?
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March 30, 2020 8:08am
- MCos
  
  . . . . . . but do they really die of flu or do they have a string of other things going on?
  Some people argue that the the Covid-19 deaths are inflated because the cause of death could be attributed to some other condition the patient may have.
  Same could probably be said of just about about any non-accidental death.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:03am
  - Simon Gotlieb
    
    Given the medical definition of death is pretty strict, you could probably make the claim that, brutal trauma excluded, most people die of heart attacks instead of whatever they were sick with.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:50am
- hullkiwi
  
  In NZ, this year? Debateable, as it depends on someone bringing the virus in from abroad. Once again, isolation will reduce people’s chance to be exposed.
  
  NB. When flu is having a higher kill rate (or is accelerating the deaths of those with underlying conditions) than flu. From the numbers it appears to 5% to 6% of cases versus 1% to 1.5% for flu.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:20am
  - Evadne
    
    Covid has nothing like a 5% case fatality
    It’ll be closer to 0.5%
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:20am
    - Simon Gotlieb
      
      Is that something you made up, or are you a world class epidemiologist? Because even they can’t say. There are currently 8 strains of this virus in the wild. All it takes is for one strain to mutate again and we could be in real trouble.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:51am
      - MCos
        
        This particular virus may be quite hardly compared to the next one.
        I’m no expert, but I get the impression that the problem with Covid-19 is its long incubation time that means someone is infection well before they know they are.
        Combine that with a high death rate & there would be carnage.
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:25pm
- mark15
  
  I’ll put that in the ‘Jacinda Ardern too hard basket’
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:01am
cmm

I looked at the “80,000 will die” study that Maggy provided a link toon Friday.

From this it looks almost political. Ardern is being set up to be the saint who saved 80,000 lives.

The findings seem odd: the “do nothing” option and the “do everything” option which shuts down for 400 days (yes, 400 days – more than a year) produce about the same number of deaths: 80,000, just the “do everything” option takes a longer time allowing for someone to come up with a vaccine.

Some of the other options tried (like shutting down schools and universities for 400 days) produce slightly better output.

So if this report is to be believed then what we are now doing is a complete waste of time.

IMHO, there are numerous problems with this modelling including, but not limited to, the following:

1) Overall, this is a very simple differential model. Nothing wrong with simple; simple is good if it matches reality. All they did was re-run an overseas model, using a couple of changed parameters. Nothing too wrong with that, but only the minimal changes were made to the parameters.
2) The paper assumes NZ shut down borders on 1 March. That did not happen.
3) The paper assumes that all infections are local with no new infected people coming in. Invalid: Most of the new infections during March are people who continue to pour into the country from elsewhere.
4) The paper assumes they can apply control procedures for 400 DAYS or longer. Dream on! There is no way people will tolerate over a year of school shutdowns etc. Compliance will drop to close to zero.

5) The ICU bed count in the paper differs from the appendix. So what numbers did they really use? Pity they didn’t catch that during editing.
6) Massive assumptions about infection rates, death rates, etc remaining stable during the modeling period . IMHO, this is a huge oversimplification.
7) Concern that the numbers wrt survivability and ICU bed numbers might be wrong.

Breaking those issues down into categories, some of these are not faulty modelling per se but rather assumptions that are no longer valid, thus making the findings invalid. These could be addressed by re-running the model with new data. These are:
1) Start date of lockdown changed, changing the dynamics of the model.
2) The lockdown is porous and infected cases flood in still.

3) They run their models for 400 days (over a year). That is ridiculous. There is no chance of compliance with any strategy for 400 days. It is a waste of time publishing a report that expects this level of compliance.

Modelling errors. These are true errors in the methodology used in the model.
4) The model assume infection and death rates are constant. Very unlike. The old and sick have lower resistance so are more likely to get killed off earlier. That leaves a more robust population. Therefore the rates change. That means death rates are likely to go down with time as seems to be the case in UK.
5) The model does not allow for resistant people who do not get infected if exposed.

Parameterisation errors. These are errors in the paramters used. Most are just copied from the original model and a few are tweaked slightly for NZ conditions.
6) The model seems insufficiently sensitive to the number of ICU beds available and increasing the number of beds does not seem to have as much benefit as you would expect.
7) The model is parameterised for 300 or 500 ICU beds. This is a huge difference, but it is unclear which they used. Both these numbers are likely wrong as NZ will very likely make or otherwise acquire many more ICU beds and ventilator capacity in the next few weeks. Likely well over 1500 ventilated beds will be available before the end of April (Double tha is technically possible if we pull finger).

Bottom line is that this is a model that is not matching current reality and is unlikely to match future reality on many fronts. When a model and reality do not agree, then it is the model that is wrong. Reality is never wrong. It was, IMHO, irresponsible to publish this.

So, for something that has come from a self-proclaimed “Centre of Research Excellence” I am somewhat disappointed.
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March 30, 2020 8:10am
- Scott
  
  Scott has once again helpfully found a copy of the prime Minister’s speech for tomorrow –
  
  “Greeting comrades. We have been encouraged by the lock down measures in the UK and have accordingly purchased a fleet of drones that will fly over every neighbourhood. They will identify those people going on an unauthorised second daily walk and deliver at high volume uplifting and helpful messages such as “Oy, you lot, get back inside!”
  
  Our police commissioner is delighted with the success of the new website – dob in your neighbour. He is also putting in place a network of paid social informants. Using advice from police colleagues from the former Soviet Union and East Germany these social informants will be recruited from every neighbourhood in Aotearoa.
  
  As an additional benefit we believe there is nothing like suspecting that your neighbour could be a lying two faced government weasel to increase social distancing.
  
  Thank you comrades. Please join with me in singing our newly revised National Anthem “Jacinda Defend New Zealand!”
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:13am
- MrTips
  
  They are not a COE in infectious disease. Hendy is a well known left wing activist scientist, …[Deleted – Subjective and unwarranted comment – Mod.] Neither Hendy nor Wiles, nor any of the so called experts TV and Stuff/Herald are constantly throwing at us, are part of PITAG or OneHealthAoteroa infectious disease expert groups.
  
  When all this is done and dusted, I for one want to know why non-experts have been allowed to have so much more influence than they should.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:19am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Yes, this has been a concern of mine.
    
    The PM’s Science Advisor has been all but absent on this matter.
    
    The advice from our leading infectious disease epidemiologists was overlooked for ages and often seemed to be countered by comments from Siouxie Wiles:
    
    Prof Michael Baker was calling for school closures early on…Siouxie disagreed:
    
    Coronavirus: Govt needs to consider closing schools, restricting public transport – public health expert Michael Baker
    
    “Leading microbiologist Dr Siouxsie Wiles told Newstalk ZB that at this stage schools do not need to be closed.”
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12317250
    
    On Saturday when being interviewed on Kim Hill, Prof Baker said it looks like up to 30% of community transmission occurs at schools (based on information from other countries).
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:06am
    - rightoverlabour
      
      And that is why they should have closed the schools earlier, but introduced the Canadian model of lock down. Would have dented the spread, but a lot more anger and anguish would have been avoided. I beleive Marist has about 30 cases in their cluster. We had been begging to close before this blew up there, but Arderne, Hipkins and Peters knew better.
      
      https://www.ontario.ca/page/list-essential-workplaces
      
      I know we give Canada a lot of stick but I think they got it right here.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:46am
  - Durden
    
    Mods, I am sorry too say Shaun Hendy, Siouxie Wiles, James Renwick are all academic charlatans involved in politics. They are simply reveling in a world crisis that is Covid-19 pumping themselves up with a lot of mutual congratulations within their echo-chamber. Trying to build up their profiles during time of human misery.
    
    All you have to do is look at their twitter feeds before January 2020. Hendy (expertise physics) was on his green “no-flying” showboat (apparently he wants the Government to build cheap high speed trains in NZ to indulge him).
    
    Wiles’ work has been more with bacteria rather than viruses. But she is rebranding. She is spouting Covid-19 information sourced from her past contacts at past employer Imperial College London whose forecasting models used by UK government for its Covid-19 response will soon be proven to be hogwash.
    
    We know Renwick likes to do politicking instead of sticking to his dodgy science with his scaremongering NZ speaking tour on climate change. And suppressing legitimate questioning by experienced scientists with his mates at Royal Society NZ.
    
    With Covid-19 progression proving that complex models become particularly unreliable very quickly in the face of real life observations, how long before the extremely complex long term Climate Change models are shown to be the same?
    
    All of them were recently raging against Auckland Uni’s communication policy proposal which states that they can only speak publicly on their specific speciality. And not hold themselves out as experts in other fields while claiming the mantle of Auck Uni’s professorship in their twitter bios etc. Eminently reasonable proposal I thought to get academics out of politics and stop over-reaching beyond their field of expertise.
    
    Beware the so called experts and “scientism” at times of crisis.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:13am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      Yes, it is ridiculous that our Media kept overlooking the advice of a medically trained scientist with years of experience with the spread of infectious disease.
      
      https://www.otago.ac.nz/wellington/departments/publichealth/staff/otago024831.html
      
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      March 30, 2020 1:42pm
      - DeepBlue
        
        Male, greying hair v Female, pink hair.
        Who do you expect would command the TV?
        
        7 1
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        March 30, 2020 1:52pm
- PhilBest
  
  Britain’s equivalent modelling experts suddenly cut their estimates from millions down to 20,000.
  
  The really major error of statistical analysis has been to base the data on the deadliness of COVID-19 going by confirmed cases. Deaths divided by confirmed cases.
  
  What they’ve been busted over is the massive conceptual error that missed the completely plausible existence of hundreds or even thousands of COVID-19 cases before confirmed-case 1 was even confirmed. So the deadliness is overestimated by a factor of at least tens of times.
  
  Anecdotal evidence is certainly confirming that a lot of people now suspect in retrospect that they got this and threw it off without even seeking medical help, or perhaps just got the usual quick, cheap and cheerful antibiotics prescription from their Doc (and report back if you don’t get better in 10 days).
  
  Possibly there were already a few deaths of elderly people, not recorded as COVID-19 deaths because of co-morbidities known to be fatal to the elderly on their own.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:20am
- adamsmith1922
  
  I agree, models are models, they reflect assumptions made, facts available, facts included and the modellers bias. Thus they are imperfect. They are a guide, but highly fallible, especially if there are the issues you describe.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:26am
  - PhilBest
    
    Yes, but “logic” should be able to tell what are the right inputs to use in the first place. “Deaths divided by confirmed cases” was utterly illogical, and you can be the most clever person in the world at devising mathematical models, but if you lack this kind of basic logic about whether your inputs are the right ones, you shouldn’t be granted any credibility by government or media. It is becoming clear to me that the things most desperately needed for good journalism, are logic and skepticism.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:15am
- Simon
  
  At the moment, there is no scientific reason for school closures,” Hipkins said.
  
  From 17 March 2020
  
  The so called science is whatever the Ardern government wants to feed to the general population via a compilant media.
  
  Its only been 5 days of NZ ‘s decent into being East Germany. Imagine 40 years of this and you understand how they tore down the Berlin Wall with their bare hands.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:28am
  - MCos
    
    We have limitations placed on movement for less than a week and you’re comparing us to East Germany.
    No censorship
    No Stasi
    Nothing to stop you leaving the country, except there’s nowhere to go
    No political prisoners
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:38pm
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  I agree the release of the study was political.
  
  It looked like a standard logistics-growth model that could have been run at any time over the last couple of months and findings released to the public.
  
  One aspect of the lockdown model that the public still might not realise is that until we have herd immunity or mass vaccination of the population, there will be repeated outbreaks when folks start co-mingling unless we can secure our borders against re-entry of infected people.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:37am
  - cmm
    
    The lack of herd immunity is the reason the “do everything” option still ended up with the same number of deaths: 80k.
    
    As soon as people came out of their lockdown in May 2021, the virus would be up and running again and a second wave would effectively be the same as “do nothing”.
    
    Still, that’s just modeling…
    
    In reality we burst the bubble every time someone goes out to the supermarket. At our place we’re trying to do that as safely as possible by sending one (young) person once a week or less.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:20am
  - BananaLlama
    
    I would like to see the statistics for controlled exposure rates. So for example if the young and healthy were exposed gradually over time by region ect. Herd immunity seems to be the best shot as there is still no Vaccine at this time.
    Correct me if i am wrong but Lockdown of the entire population seems to be a last resort if you are unable to deal with a problem and hope it will just go away.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:42am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      Lockdown of the entire population seems to be a last resort
      
      I think those in charge realised last week that the virus had got away on them… there was no alternative at that stage.
      
      Prof Michael Baker had suggested much earlier on that elderly and the immuno-vulnerable could be quarantined away from the rest of the public…
      
      (sensibly some retirement villages started doing this a couple of weeks before most of us started self-isolating)
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:25am
      - BananaLlama
        
        My sister who lives in Hawkes Bay made great sport of our government allowing cruise ships to dock in Napier and disgorge their passengers onto the streets.
        Pro Ardern supporter as well, lol.
        I reminded her of the cock up over M.Bovis and how Corona would likely spread here due to our incredibly lax border security.
        Spread of the Varroa mite also comes to mind.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:43am
      - Ruawai
        
        Self isolating older and at risk people and also closing the border to non NZers in February was the only sensible solution but our Govt messed that up.
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:38pm
  - Happychappy
    
    This won’t help then Maggie.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12320744
    Jacinda will be having nightmares
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:34am
- KevO'Brien
  
  The “Centre of Research Excellence” may practice modelling but ignore sense.
  Modelling for political outcomes is itself political and otherwise potentially fraudulent.
  Testing arrivals and showing that as data representing the NZ population is close to fraud.
  The PM and associates are sailing close to the wind. Ignorance?–probably, driven by a socialists need for control.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:14am
- freethinker
  
  Would an executive be -Fucking Useless Twaddle?Asking on behalf of the Minister of health who now wears Large Headphones so he is not disturbed by facts he cannot understand?
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:16am
  - Ruawai
    
    Doesn’t he look like a numpty wearing those with his covid 19 posters stuck on his bedroom wall.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:41pm
- Pharmachick
  
  I would have been happier if the model was stochastic, but as you said its a very simple differential model –> really only allows for vectorial inference.
  
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  March 30, 2020 12:34pm
Happychappy

Jacinda Ardern ‘ very frustrated ‘ with lockdown breaches.
Jacinda Ardern says she – and other kiwis – are – ‘ very frustrated with people flouting the rules of the level 4 lockdown. However Social mediais being inundated with images of people refusing to follow the rules and stay in the bubble.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/jacinda-ardern-very-frustrated-with-lockdown-breachers.html
Well Jacinda that why you are the Prime Minister to lead not send mixed messages and allow some to break the rules and then whinge about the ones that are your voters giving you the two fingers.
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March 30, 2020 8:10am
- cmm
  
  They just need to explain the rationale for the rules better and more people will want to comply.
  
  Unfortunate telling people to comply because rules are rules and we just make rules up as we go along is not sufficient explanation.
  
  How does anyone break the bubble if they go on a solitary (or family) tramp/ hunting/ fishing/ surfing or walk on the beach?
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:00am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    I thought everyone had got the point by now about not going tramping/fishing/surfing. A not insignificant number of such enthusiasts get into trouble and need rescue. At a time when the emergency services are stretched and unnecessary gatherings of people discouraged, this is not helpful.
    Really, this message from Coastguard, SAR, Fire & Emergency, etc, has been very widely publicised.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:15am
    - cmm
      
      You might notice I said solitary – so no gatherings involved.
      
      It is an insignificant number that get into trouble and those that do are generally pushing the boundaries.
      
      For example, your chance of falling and breaking a leg are almost zero if you go for an easy tramp as opposed to a mountaineering expedition.
      
      How many surfers get into trouble and need rescue?
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:33am
      - mikenmildagain
        
        The gathering would be the rescuers. Really, this isn’t complicated:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BA9eTXwGIk
        
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        March 30, 2020 9:45am
      - Hapuku
        
        I went for a surf yesterday evening. Walked to the beach, surfed by myself, amazingly didn’t need rescuing just like those thousands of other times when I didn’t need rescuing either.
        
        Yes the odd accident occurs but it’s a lot safer than biking (I see the Redwoods in Rotorua is still open) and certainly less risky from a transmission point of view than going to the supermarket.
        
        Happy to stay in my bubble but not happy to abide by dumb rules thought up on the fly by some police spokesperson.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:58am
    - Wangas Feral
      
      People fall off ladders, trip over kids toys and pets at home and require hospitalization as well. Talk of bubbles is fine but we can’t live in one.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:02am
    - Tall Man
      
      Bullshit.
      
      What’s a not insignificant number in your world mikey.
      
      I challenge you to provide a number for normal non combative recreations.
      
      You won’t so I’ll stick with my first comment.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:41am
    - david
      
      Evidence please that emergency services are in any way “stretched”
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:51am
      - cmm
        
        I live near Chch airport. We normally hear the Wespac chopper a few times a day. Haven’t heard it at all for the last few days.
        
        They might be a bit stretched in hospitals etc, but not rescue.
        
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        March 30, 2020 3:11pm
  - Padraig Payne
    
    Sorry I accidently reported you.
    
    They would not break the bubble in the circumstances you describe. I live alone and would love to go on a solo tramp. However I could also break an ankle and need to be rescued. If you tell people they can go hunting, before you know it a bunch of good ole boys will pile into the ute.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:20am
    - rightoverlabour
      
      And I could fall out of bed…. The “you may need to be rescued line is bullshit”. It’s about state control, and and an over eager police lock down. At least here (unlike South Africa) they can’t open fire at distance if they see you walking in the street. Biggest risk in activity is still driving there. The biggest risk of picking this up now is standing in shopping queues, which could have been avoided with a better food shop plan i.e butcheries, fruit and vege, bakeries, bottle store. But we know who knows best…..
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:54am
      - cmm
        
        Yup in NZ supermarkets are vector hub number 1.
        
        Still haven’t seen any temperature testing at supermarkets. Yes, I know that would not catch asymptomatic people, but symptomatic people are more infectious and weeding some out is better than weeding none out.
        
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        March 30, 2020 3:13pm
- kowtow
  
  Any photos of Hone’s Henchmen with the Boyz in Blu , obstructing the Queen’s Highways , contrary to common law?
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:20am
  - Tall Man
    
    Ha ha ha ha. That’s definitely not on ardern’s happy list.
    
    3 1
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    March 30, 2020 11:37am
  - cmm
    
    Contrary to the Crimes Act too, just with Mr/Mz Plod helping.
    
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    March 30, 2020 3:15pm
Poppa

It is sad for the family of the woman who died from the virus. They won’t even get to have a funeral

But nor will the family of the guy crushed by the rubbish truck in Wellington
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March 30, 2020 8:10am
- Blackbob
  
  She had the virus when she died but did she die from the virus? They are not the same thing, The Italian experience tells us that much at least.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:40am
- hookerphil
  
  Didn’t read about this death but I do recall that the very first death in New Zealand after the new Health & Safety laws came in was in a Wellington Refuse Centre when a backing truck crushed a worker.
  Presume they made the usual calls that steps had been taken to prevent this happening again.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:43am
- Tony Stuart
  
  A friend was invited to attend a burial in Christchurch on Friday of a close friend of hers; one of only ten allowed to attend. On Wednesday, that number was reduced to six, and later in the day the family was advised that the funeral directors and cemetery workers were the only ones allowed; no family, and no friends.
  
  At a time of distress, it’s going to be incredibly tough on families who want to farewell a loved one, but for the moment, that’s the “new normal”. I guess there will be funeral directors who have the facility for extended storage of bodies, but this is certainly one area of the lockdown where there will be unforeseen consequences.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:49am
  - Evadne
    
    It’s a senseless, needless and cruel rule. The close family wanting to attend the funeral would be in a bubble or household anyway for the purposes of this lockdown. If they’re that scared of contagion put the funeral director/minister behind a perspex screen.
    
    3 family members standing round a grave poses the same risk as those three family members standing in their own garden. And much less than them sitting in their own living room together hugging and crying because they can’t say goodbye to their loved one.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:44am
Paulus

Did I not hear that Halal Butchers could now open – but not other Butchers ?
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March 30, 2020 8:20am
- burt
  
  The test to see if this is acceptable is what would we say if the news was;
  
  Only Halal butchers must remain closed.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:43am
  - freethinker
    
    Would prefer this headline 15th March 2021 all Halal butchers now closed due to no demand.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:21am
  - igm
    
    Have just driven past Halal butchery next to local mosque. It is advertised on its noticeboard as open from 10-2 daily.
    Local imam is outspoken and given premium news space in Fairfax publications, so I suppose he is on open-line contact with Ardern, like lawnmower salesmen.
    This is a kick in the guts to Mad Butcher, he who does the extra mile for customers . . . this is a bloody disgrace and should be made public.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:26am
    - PhilBest
      
      I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The Mad Butcher should try and become NZ’s Trump. Sir Bob Jones is probably past it now.
      
      3 2
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      March 30, 2020 12:16pm
      - MCos
        
        You talking about Peter Leitch?
        
        He’s 75, has diabetes, cancer a couple of times and major heart surgery a year ago.
        He’s probably not so keen.
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:49pm
    - mara
      
      I wonder about all the “exotic food” shops along Stoddard Rd in Mt Roskill that the halal meat eaters frequent to buy the essential accompanying ingredients . Are they still trading? Legally or otherwise.
      Some grumpy guy phoned Kerre suggesting that closing them down was cultural discrimination.
      
      4 1
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      March 30, 2020 12:58pm
Michael Rodent

So much of this has been politicised by Ardern – she did it with the Muslim shootings and she is doing it now – she can’t help herself.
The 80,000 death figure isn’t supportable by any robust analysis but it sets Ardern up as the saviour who saved 79,900 lives.
I’m also worried about her continually going on about supposed social media abuse of those who have the virus. Not one bit of evidence or elaboration – just her words (which we all know can’t be trusted). Is she setting the scene to bring in social media controls?
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March 30, 2020 8:26am
- kowtow
  
  Predictive modelling of 250 000 deaths in the UK was what scared Bojo into action in the UK .
  
  The modeller was the same guy who got action on Foot and Mouth and BSE .
  
  The figures on the latter 2 still up for debate.
  
  Neil Ferguson Imperial College.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:17am
- Yvette
  
  Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern calls out bullying of coronavirus patients – Mar 29 2020
  
  A New Zealand mother diagnosed with coronavirus says her family has experienced bullying and misinformation. She’d returned from Italy, then Auckland-Palmerston North-Auckland before being diagnosed positive – Mar 05 2020
  
  Does a 3 week gap suggest Ardern’s Government is using this situation?
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:28am
  - Tony Stuart
    
    I spend a large part of my day on social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram) and I haven’t seen any posts at all which could be construed as any way critical of those who have contracted COVID-19, let alone that would constitute bullying. However the media will continue to repeat the PM’s mantra, and not challenge it.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:52am
    - septic skeptic
      
      And what bullying there was seemed to be directed at their lax attitude towards spreading covid rather than them simply having it.
      
      5 1
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      March 30, 2020 12:46pm
      - Ruawai
        
        People reporting lax border controls a couple of weeks ago in Auckland were shut down by David Clarke saying this wasn’t true and that border controls were very good. They just make stuff up and when they say something they don’t expect to be questioned, it is just meant to be fact.
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:48pm
  - Tall Man
    
    I assumed that question was rhetorical but then I saw the question mark.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:34am
Prince

Wouldn’t ya know it. Wellington weekend weather cold, windy, wet.
Monday dawns fine and calm.
Oh wait on, ha, take that you weather gods.
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March 30, 2020 8:27am
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  You’ll be happy to know that it is P****ing down in Gizzy…
  Our resident Paradise duck is paddling in the backyard, happy as.
  
  21 1
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  March 30, 2020 8:45am
  - Tall Man
    
    There is a theory Maggy that bovine TB could be spread by them.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:32am
    - RW Capitalist
      
      and bovine IQ is spread by our PM
      Because she is a silly cow.
      
      3 1
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      March 30, 2020 2:19pm
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      More than possible… just like possums – feeding & pooping on pastures.
      
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      March 30, 2020 7:00pm
- Padraig Payne
  
  Raining in Christchurch – possibly the most rain in 6 months.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:21am
  - Tony Stuart
    
    We had a nice drop of rain over the weekend, accompanied by a bitter southerly. I glanced out this morning to see a fresh coating of snow on Mt Taranaki which I snapped on my phone:
    
    https://twitter.com/TonyStuart55/status/1244347263477903361
    
    Thinking ahead, I doubt there’ll be much of a ski season this year in either island given that a significant part of the workforce comes from overseas, and it is unlikely that international travel will have returned to any semblance of normality by winter.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:56am
    - Captain Mainwaring
      
      Tony.
      That looks remarkably like Mt. Egmont.
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:29am
  - freethinker
    
    [Deleted – mod.]
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:24am
  - RW Capitalist
    
    no global warming induced drought then?
    
    3 1
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    March 30, 2020 2:18pm
- Tall Man
  
  Up in Palmy at the moment. It ain’t nice at all.
  
  Easy traffic though ?
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:31am
  - Ian Boag
    
    Just out of curiosity. You are pretty voluble about what is being done wrong or has been done wrong …
    
    If we had made you PM a couple of months ago, what would you have done different/better?
    
    This is not a smartarse question. If we sift the personal abuse/hate ardern etc stuff out of your posts, you are not the thickest contrbutor.
    
    So …. ?
    
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    March 30, 2020 6:54pm
    - Tall Man
      
      May well be the tallest though.
      
      Seal the borders as soon as it was obvious there was a virus coming. Subsidise isolation costs for all, all at risk citizens and grab as many test kits from anywhere in the world.
      
      Then test, test and test again what we have in NZ to establish where there were outbreaks then let the rest of the country get sick and develop herd immunity.
      
      Will some die, maybe but I can assure anyone who is not fucking brain dead that the economic “death” we will experience will be proven to be way beyond the impact of covid 19.
      
      The smarter at risk would be getting infected now while there is still spare capacity within the hospitals but I think this whole fiasco will evolve to be the second most ridiculous con job behind “global warming”.
      
      But hey, “what’s in it for wynston didn’t like me”, maybe I’m not a twit desperate for what a crook can give me.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:56pm
- RW Capitalist
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da0YARpkI3U
  I will say to you, what I say to all climate alarmists as well……Stop the weather waffle.
  and listen
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TIj-l3nykw
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:24pm
PaulDunmore

Last Friday an Auckland man became the first charged for breaching the lockdown: according to Stuff, for “failing to comply with a direction from the medical officer of health.”
This puzzled me at the time, because at least in my district the MOH did not seem to have issued any directions relating to the lockdown.
It has now come to light that the Director-General of Health, in his capacity as an MOH throughout NZ, issued an order last Tuesday but it was not released publicly until Friday; no doubt too late for the man charged to have been aware of it.
So the Police can now charge us with violating secret laws. How very Stalinist! (I know, never credit to Stalinism anything that can be explained by incompetence.)
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March 30, 2020 8:33am
- MT_Tinman
  
  So the Police can now charge us with violating secret laws.
  
  If you look up the case of Phillip Arps you will see the police have been doing not just this but, in Arps’ case, charging people with crimes not even on the books since at least March last year.
  
  Backed by a judge (Driscoll from memory) who jailed Arps because he didn’t “think” correctly.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:58am
  - peterwn
    
    It is a crime to possess, pass on ‘objectionable’ material etc. The onus is on that person to judge whether the material is ‘objectionable’ or whether to seek a ruling from the Classifications Office (a ruling must be sought for some items such as movies).
    So someone possessing or passing on hard core child porn cannot argue that he did not know it was ‘objectionable’. Similarly for the video the offender took of the killings. In any case once the authorities knew it was circulating they quickly sought a ‘classification’ and made known that possessing it or passing it on was a crime.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:37am
- KevO'Brien
  
  Has that order been ratified by Parliament within the 7 day period set down?
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:16am
- peterwn
  
  Wrong. The Order has to be publicised before anyone can be charged with breaching it. Also a Judge’s response to anyone charged with breaching an Order would depend on how long the order had been in existence, how widely publicised it was etc.
  If a person continued to breach an Order after being warned then a prosecution is fair enough.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:24am
- Joely Doe
  
  The 31-year-old labourer from Manukau also faced charges of failing to stop for the police and driving while drunk or under the influence of drugs, having been convicted at least twice before. Beadle has also been charged with stealing petrol and driving while drunk or on drugs on Monday.
  
  Yeah, well I wouldn’t trust the headlines when the truth of the matter is much different…
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:47am
Im Right

I see on stuff an puff piece on Princess Jacinda coping with toilet training also…..what a goddess!
Forget the hundred of thousand of other parent(s) (yes parents, she is not a solo mother) who are doing the same, she truly is a Wonder woman eh? (Where would we be without these women magazine pieces)
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March 30, 2020 8:34am
- Poppa
  
  It is a bloody disgrace the way she is using that kid for her own publicity
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:47am
- gander
  
  I never look at the ‘puff pieces’ and try to avoid Stuff, so maybe I’m missing something here. I know she may not be the sharpest knife in the block, but I’d have thought Jacinda would at least be toilet trained already.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:53am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Something a bit potty going on there…
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:17am
  - sooty
    
    Considering that Jethro should not be out in his boat, why is it news!
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:35am
- kowtow
  
  No different to press stories in any other people’s republic . Glorious leader this that and the other .
  
  I watched Sunday last night for the first time in many years , the way Glorious Leaders’ photo was cut into various segments would have done Goebbels proud.
  
  BTW those wild life /wet markets are alive and well in Bangkok as well . If the UN doesn’t do anything else it needs to get all those sorts of places worldwide shut down .Forget climate change , these are the places this shit keeps coming from and will again.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:13am
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Luckily you watched Sunday so that you now know about the wet markets. perhaps you will be watching TV more now to become better informed.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:30am
    - Tall Man
      
      Sounds like the advice ardern would be listening to.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:27am
- Iamright
  
  Her performance on seven sharp on Friday was a shocker. Her smiley face and toothy grin throughoud the inderview was absoluedly appalling. About as bat as mixing my ts and ds
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:43pm
Ruahine

Cactus Kate doing work the Media is supposed to do.
Well Done Cathie.
No work and full pay will keep me voting Labour anyday.

https://asianinvasion2019.blogspot.com/2020/03/so-why-arent-public-sector-workers-on.html
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March 30, 2020 8:36am
- mikenmildagain
  
  What makes here think that public servants working at home aren’t actually working?
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:04am
  - sooty
    
    Well you ain’t!
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:36am
  - septic skeptic
    
    I just figure “why break the habits of a lifetime” applies.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:16am
  - Inandout
    
    m&m, it is called gliding on from home.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:03am
  - Wangas Feral
    
    You are taking the piss Mikey – they don’t work at work much either. Paper shuffling is not work.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:05am
    - mikenmildagain
      
      Depends on the gsm of the paper one is using. Some of the heavier paper grades can inflict quite savage cuts.
      
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      March 30, 2020 12:38pm
- DeepBlue
  
  After 2 weeks early School Holidays, all teachers should go onto lower pay.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:57am
  - rightoverlabour
    
    Uhh no, we will be furiously engaging with students on line. In fact we should get a pay rise as the increased levels of frustration trying to get Johnny to pay attention to our life changing lessons while he would rather look at videos on toilet paper castles is surely going to lead to the consumption of large amounts of Gin followed by withdrawal as we can’t replenish our stocks….
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:01am
  - MCos
    
    Blowing someone else’s candles out won’t make yours glow any brighter.
    
    Schooling will still go on. At the school where my son teaches they were organizing on line lessons for a couple of weeks beforehand. They provided devices for kids that didn’t have them.
    I don’t know, but I think after a couple of weeks hanging round the house a good proportion of the kids are going to want to get engaged.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:15am
    - DeepBlue
      
      I didn’t say no pay, I said lower pay. For a starter 20% of kids do not currently have internet or devices. So that is 20% reduction in teaching.
      
      You can not convince me that every child is going to do six hours of classes at home, nor every subject be able to be taught the curriculum remotely. There will be some that can and some that cannot.
      
      The point is in the private sector the government have said you only have to pay 80%. Why should the public sector be any different?
      
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      March 30, 2020 2:08pm
Wired-one

I hope governments around the world are preparing to send China a very large bill for the virus they allowed to spread and were complicit in spreading. China knew about this virus for months but shut down stories around it, all in the hope of saving face. Imagine the worlds reaction if this virus originated from Iraq or Iran? The sactions and economic bills would already be well on there way, not to mention the threat of war. Why the hell should we let China away with this? Look at the devastation they have caused. I know we rely on them for trade etc, but it’s about time we didn’t. If China isnt willing to pay up, let all the countries in the world stop trading with this pariah. And there is no way in hell we should be allowing China to benefit off the back of this pandemic by buying up shares, bonds and debt. Will someone please grow a pair and stand up to this communist country?
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March 30, 2020 8:41am
- peterwn
  
  On the contrary, Chinese interests may be poised to swoop on NZ companies where the owners have backs to the wall or enough shareholders want out. This is because (especially for listed companies) market values of their shares and underlying assets are significantly less than their long term values. Fund Managers (including Kiwisaver) may be forced to sell the underlying investments at a discount to meet payout obligations.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:17am
  - Durden
    
    “Mark to market” was ignored in 2008 when quantitative easing was undertaken. The same will happen this time. Nationalism will kick in with the added proviso that no significant national assets (public and private) can be sold to overseas investors esp. China. All the while countries are trying to create a case for compensation against China for releasing Covid-19 on the world due t their secrecy and false/delayed reporting. Its already happening. If China fails to respond, it gives countries an opportunity to sequester Chinese assets within the country as reparations. Trade agreements be damned.
    
    As a good side effect, countries will start looking sideways at trade deals which require them to sign away sovereignty and to allow some faceless international trade tribunal to decide and dictate. Trump, and lately the Brits who voted Brexit seem like visionaries now.
    
    The next domino to fall will be UN and all its subsidiary organisations such as the china controlled WHO etc. Because they have been tying up all countries up in logical sounding mandates and charters etc that give them power to dictate action like the current Covid-19 management practices without regard to each country special situation. e.g. see how India’s lock down is ridiculous for a country where a huge number of people live on the streets and off daily wages. They can’t isolate, they can’t eat, they can’t travel home to their villages.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southasia-idUSKBN21G0AU
    
    I think the time is also coming for UN overreach to backfire big time.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:06am
- PhilBest
  
  Don’t forget the World Health Organization’s shameful role as China’s arse-coverer
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:18am
- Wayne Mapp
  
  No-one is going to send the bill to China, not even the US. No-one is going to go war with China.
  
  Instead they (and us) will be wanting China to buy our goods again. Go and ask the forestry workers in Gisborne, Fonterra, the meat companies, etc, etc.
  
  The world is not going to have a chance of returning to normal (well as normal as can be imagined) if any nation, or a group of nations, try a Treaty of Versailles approach. We already know how that worked out. Except now all the major players have nuclear weapons.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:22am
  - Simon
    
    Globalization is finished if it includes trade with the pariah state China. Trade with countries with similar laws around taxation, business practice, environment and labor. Japan, S Korea, Taiwan etc. etc Everything acceptable – that the moral cesspool that is China isn’t.
    
    Even if you adopt a market approach to China. That is ignore that China is a moral cesspit. NZ business can’t for eg compete on a level playing field with a Chinese business which treats its employees as slaves. Chinese milk powder company will always beat a NZ milk powder company on a pure “market” basis.
    
    The neolibs have been horribly wrong about trade with China. That China would become more free and open as it traded more with the West. Instead under Xi its become vile dictatorship with a horrible human rights record.
    
    China will only get worse not better and that spells doom for any NZ company or political party tied to that moral cesspool.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:30am
  - freethinker
    
    You are right Wayne, it will be the consumer by deciding not to purchase Chinese made good that will bring about change but many products have Chinese made parts so unable to distinguish. Watch out for labels with – no Chinese parts or labour incorporated in this product.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:17pm
    - curry4me
      
      freethinker: Yeah, that last bit is a good idea. In respect to phones, PCs, and Laptops, I understand Samsung has the least Chinese content.
      
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      March 30, 2020 8:17pm
- curry4me
  
  Wired-one: Don’t depend on governments to do something. Ask the management at stores you deal with to source stuff from outside China. Offer to pay a little more. Use non-Chinese drop shippers.
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:23pm
Happychappy

This is just another excuse Bush and Ardern to get names of those that dislike this Government and create more snitches or narks to help do the job of our Police. You ring to make a serious complaint like I did a month ago and after staying on the line for a hour they informed that they couldn’t do much about it but next time it happens ring 111. We have a gang member that rides his motor bike up our street at dangerous speeds daily with a very young child passenger that like the rider does not have a helmet on. Now I know several people have reported this and the police have done shit all about it. Yet they are prepared to get people to dob in others on policy that sends mixed messages from a Prime Minister out of her depth.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=12320692
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March 30, 2020 8:43am
burt

Rumour has it that Ashley Bloomfield threatened to resign on the 12th of April if the commemoration went ahead on the 15th.

Has anyone got any good info on this?
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March 30, 2020 8:45am
- Poppa
  
  Interesting…something certainly yanked her chain at the last minute
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:50am
  - Simon
    
    Yep it’s interesting. Everything was fine then next minute it’s Home Detention. What was the trigger? Suppose all the medicos screaming blue murder and cases in Australia and Ardern cracked under the pressure
    
    Home Detention is Ardern cracking open.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:05am
    - sooty
      
      It wasn’t the Christchurh council that pulled the hugfest. Certainly not with Dyson as mayor!
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:39am
      - Captain Mainwaring
        
        Dyson???
        Don’t you mean Dalziel?
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:35am
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      In the week of 17-21 March, Health Workers were circulating a petition demanding that the country went to Level 4.
      
      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120477240/coronavirus-doctor-group–raise-threat-level-now-or-risk-becoming-like-italy
      
      https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/23-03-2020/covid-19-the-doctor-behind-the-petition-to-move-to-alert-level-four/
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:39am
  - Surely Knott
    
    Surely they knew that the Hereford conference cases (now 19 people) , and the Marist school cluster (now 41 people) were about to be made public. We were still going to school for goodness sakes.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:30pm
- Im Right
  
  Can I borrow your time machine please Burt? 🙂
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:51am
  - burt
    
    With that kind of attitude all you’d do with it is wreck it to re-write the past.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:00am
- Tony Stuart
  
  13th of March, I heard, from a number of sources including a couple from within the Ministry of Health. He reportedly gave the PM an ultimatum, to which she eventually agreed, via Lianne Dalziel.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:59am
  - Wayne Mapp
    
    I would question whether he really gave an ultimatum that he would resign. Not really the way the public service operates, even in extremis. Much more likely he argued strenuously that it should not proceed, backed with stats on the level of risk. With such a strong argument against, a politician is unlikely to proceed.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:26am
    - burt
      
      You’ve softened you position from absolute denial yesterday.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:01am
- MrTips
  
  burt: Spoken with someone who would know about this. They have not heard of this. If they haven’t heard, its likely not a thing.
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:20am
GT Build

I watched the 1pm press breifing yesterday the funniest thing was when they went questions they were all getting asked of the doctor the saviour was just about having kittens and wetting herself. Had to rely on a fan girl ( jessica much) to ask her a patsie question a couple of times if you get a chance have watch
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March 30, 2020 8:46am
- burt
  
  Imho her speech ( tone & canter ) would have been perfect for a funeral. At times like this we need strong leadership with compassion and empathy. Up till this point she has seemed strong, but yesterday she looked broken and frightened.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:51am
  - bruceavon
    
    Yes. The death was significant because it was the first one and is of course tragic for her family, but I don’t know if we need to acknowledge every single death like this. about 400 people a year die from the normal flu a year. So slightly more than one a day. We don’t announce all of those. Or the 9000 cancer deaths…
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:25am
    - burt
      
      Absolutely it was significant but I’m wondering if we will have deeply personal stories of the medical history for every person who dies of covid.
      
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      March 30, 2020 9:40am
    - krazykiwi
      
      It’s a bit less than 400. Exact figures are difficult to pin down probably because of the dies with vs died from distinction.
      
      We do know that Influenza affects 10-20% of NZers each year. Between 2000 and 2016 an average of 776 sufferers were hospitalised. 2028 hospitalised in 2015.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:33am
  - doggone7
    
    Broken and frightened? Maybe there wasn’t anything wrong with her. Maybe it was in the eyes of the receiver. I’d say ‘go to Specsavers’ but they’re probably closed.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:21am
    - burt
      
      Yeah, you’re probably right. Of course it was me.
      BTW, once all this is over will you be moving to a communist totalitarian country where nobody is critical of dear leader so you don’t need to jump to their defense?
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:08am
    - Tall Man
      
      [Deleted-stop the personal abuse. mod.]
      
      Do your best to avoid slogans just some simple reasons that we can all understand.
      
      Now at best you could convert someone but more likely you’ll give many a good chuckle which is no bad thing ?
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:21am
      - Tall Man
        
        And again, there was no personal abuse in my comment so if what I say for some weird reason offends you, delete if you must but please don’t label it as something it is not.
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:05pm
    - Tall Man
      
      My comment was moderated but I’ll try again. I asked you, as an ardern sycophant, to list your arguments why you think that way.
      
      I also said that at worst you may convince…….
      
      Now, obviously a mod thinks calling someone an ardern sycophant is abusive but I don’t, more of a directed wind up.
      
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      March 30, 2020 12:10pm
      - sooty
        
        But she has so many sycophants in the media!
        
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        March 30, 2020 12:42pm
- burt
  
  I was also very disappointed at how much she spoke of the deceased ladies prior medical conditions. Individuals personal circumstances should not be used to create calm. Calm results from strong leadership and well communicated plans – not pointing at why one individual was vulnerable.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:00am
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Butt covering.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:42am
Monique Watson

And from the annals of: “Policing your elders”,

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120665035/coronavirus-pm-backs-families-battling-to-keep-seniors-in-their-lockdown-bubble

There goes your free will if you’re over seventy. You will be saved from yourself.
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March 30, 2020 9:08am
- sooty
  
  I’m from the government and here to help!
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:41am
- PhilBest
  
  James Delingpole says his 84 y.o. father argues that the daily “use it or lose it” routine is what is keeping many elderly people going, and there will be increased deaths by taking this away from them.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:06am
- Inandout
  
  Compare a fit over 70 with a fat, lazy , beer and junk food consuming 40 year old smoker. The older one must stay home but the fat one carries on shopping and visiting the chemist for prescription drugs needed for their unhealthy life style. Add a meth addiction and it gets even worse.
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:10am
  - Suze Wainwright
    
    That’s a bit judgemental – be kind!
    
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    March 30, 2020 12:14pm
Simon

Comrades it’s what comes after Home Detention ends.

If people are allowed to work, trade produce goods and services everything will be fine in time.

If the State interferes with this process then only harm can come.

It was the US government interference in the US economy after the 1929 stock exchange collapse that caused the Great Depression

Same could will happen again.
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March 30, 2020 9:10am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Your idea about the Great Depression is wrong. Just saying.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:23am
  - Hacked-Off
    
    mikenmildagain, It depends on the context Simon was using (which he did not clarify) to state that the US Government interference caused the Great Depression. The great stock market crash of 1929 caused a recession in the US and Western Europe, but this was compounded into a depression by the passing of the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930. This Act passed by Congress and signed by President Taft placed tariffs on all imports entering the US to protect US industries – which then led to retaliation and copying by other countries that turned a recession into a depression. If this is Simon’s meaning then he is entirely correct.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:39am
    - RalphT
      
      Signed by President Taft? Taft was president 1909-1913; it was Hoover who signed the act.
      
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      March 30, 2020 11:25am
davidp

Population density must be a factor in virus transmission, which is why we’ve seen huge clusters in places like London, New York, and Northern Italy. So I wonder about the sense of bringing bus loads of quarantined arrivals into Auckland CBD. Out in the suburbs, people can sit in their backyards. In the CBD people are out walking and there are backpackers everywhere.

Why not find quarantine locations out in the suburbs or even the countryside where those quarantined can get some fresh air and outside exercise somewhere that isn’t the most densely populated area in NZ?
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March 30, 2020 9:20am
- DeepBlue
  
  We don’t want the virus brought into our communities. City people have revelled in their cosy ‘we are so sophisticated’ lifestyles for years. Now you deal with this crises too.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:03am
  - Tall Man
    
    NIMBY.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:13am
    - DeepBlue
      
      Not at all. A quarantine site can equally be in the city or in the country. But in either place it should be secure.
      
      For sure put them in the country but have them in the city too. It is far easier to establish a secure self-isolation site in a city hotel than it is in a porous camping ground with shared toilets in the country. The city hotel does need to be secured though.
      
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      March 30, 2020 2:42pm
- PhilBest
  
  Urban density is sacred, like public transport. You wait and see how the contemporary political central-planning fetish for turning all cities into mini Hong Kongs won’t break its stride as a result of this lesson.
  
  We’re constantly bombarded with propaganda about all the negative externalities of suburbs and automobiles but no honest lists of negative externalities are ever done for the alternatives. If we’re coming into an age of increased natural disasters, pandemics etc why is living at lower density “the wrong thing”? Good arguments can be made that it is the right thing for “resilience”.
  
  Good luck thinking that living in apartments will halt the “climate change” and you won’t actually be more vulnerable rather than less vulnerable when the disasters come.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:14am
- kowtow
  
  Backpackers?
  
  Partying while the rest of us lock down.
  
  https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/60-person-party-near-qtown-backpackers
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:02am
Durden

Fundamentally, we are in lock down to control infection and severe cases to what hospitals can handle. Instead of upping hospital capability from December 2019 or January 2020 when it was clear a major pandemic was underway, the CoL sat on their hands.

We had 2-3 months time to acquire test kits, PPE, build ICU ventilator capability etc. How much would this have costed?

And when it looked like things were getting out of hand they were willing to sacrifice $20-30 billion (and counting) government support, long term damage to NZ GDP, and condemned most NZ’ers to a miserable state fearful of the future.

All to make Jacinda look good for elections. We can’t have body bags coming out from hospitals can we?

Here are the facts.
Ministry of Health have put out a PDF on 20 March 2020 about available beds.
https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/ventilators-and-icu-beds-20mar-2020.pdf

This shows 233 ICU beds (153 actual + 80 more can be crammed), and 330 ventilated patient support beds (231 actual + 99 re-purposable).

Generously, we have 5.1 ICU beds for 100,000 people and and an additional 7.3 ventilator patient support beds/100,000.

Take the numbers with a pinch of salt until someone can verify. Is re-purposing capability real or heroic pipe-dream ? There are differences in terminology e.g. definition critical care beds versus ICU beds.

Compare with figures for other countries from this Forbes article:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries-with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/#262e39f7f864
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March 30, 2020 9:20am
KevO'Brien

Found this on e-cat world this morning.
Probably the greatest musical work ever. This time 10,00o Japanese singing in Beethoven’s Ninth, Finale. All in German. That is truly a world united for freedom. Enjoy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ayw4l58IWb8
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March 30, 2020 9:25am
- mikenmildagain
  
  Nice, but I think it actually sounds better with a smaller choir.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:41am
  - Jack5
    
    Milky, enough of the grump, grump …
    
    Here’s some Polynesian culture to brighten curfew time:
    
    https://youtu.be/ab_tYof60I4
    
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    March 30, 2020 12:53pm
    - Jack5
      
      The number of hits on the Polynesian dance video linked to has jumped by a few hundred since the 12.53 post. Some of them may even be from fellow Kiwiblog followers.
      
      Two questions to ponder:
      
      – Would you prefer Tahitian dancing, or hakas?
      
      – What if – what if Auckland’s Pacifika community- the city’s Pacific Islanders – had come mainly from Tahiti?
      
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      March 30, 2020 2:48pm
- Ed Snack
  
  Always excellent. There’s some quite clever flash mob renditions as well.
  
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  March 30, 2020 1:48pm
Tauhei Notts

Over the past 30 years Erich Honecker has got a lot of bad press, and rightfully so.
But I must give him points for one thing. Our police, who do not call themselves the Stasi and I don’t know why, set up a dob your neighbour in hotline. It quickly became overloaded. Honecker would have merely put more staff on to handle such an event. Give some points to Honecker. He makes P.C. Bush look like a raw untrained amateur.
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March 30, 2020 9:29am
kowtow

Prior to this panpanic I recall the far left and many delusional middle class twit fellow travellers had a huge aversion to all things plastic , including calls to ban it in almost all and every form……..

………today the MSM who were cheerleading the anti plastic jihad are now covering our screens with imagery of and lauding the heroic efforts of health workers and other carers who are covered, literally from head to foot, in protective gear made of ………plastic.
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March 30, 2020 9:31am
- cmm
  
  The number of rolls of plastic that are imported to make bags and other packaging have reduced.
  
  Pity, those could have been repurposed into aprons etc.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:46am
Padraig Payne

Are they seriously going to let halal butchers open, but not regular butchers? Unbelievable.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666235/coronavirus-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-reconsider-essential-businesses
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March 30, 2020 9:42am
- Tall Man
  
  I don’t get it. The halal part is the killing and most butchers buy carcasses so the meat arrives halal. Either they are doing the killing themselves or it’s a bullshit con to get the brothers working.
  
  I would imagine cash rules and the accounts may be a little later light for a claim on us.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:56am
- Komata
  
  Padrig@0942
  
  Surprised? Don’t be; the PTPM has shown a certain sympathy towards Islam, so to permit halal bucheries to be open while closing all others would be quite in keeping with her views.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:32am
- burt
  
  We need to look at this with total objectivity. To me the need for meat to be Halal is sky fairy mumbo-jumbo and has no place in a world supposedly populated by an intelligent species. But my views are immaterial and irrelevant, we have Halal standards to appease the great Allah.
  
  However, to test if it is fair we need to ask ourselves this question;
  
  Would we tolerate allowing butchers to open as long as they are not Halal?
  
  If we see that as discrimination then we need to also see only allowing Halal butchers to open as discrimination.
  
  These issues are really this simple and it’s only our own bias and beliefs that complicate them.
  
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  March 30, 2020 1:28pm
  - Ruawai
    
    Just become vegetarians for a month, it won’t kill them.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:59pm
    - burt
      
      Fruit and veges are probably the greatest area of risk right now due to how many people handle them both on their way to supermarket and while they are there.
      
      Perhaps we should force all vegans to be carnivores – it won’t kill them.
      
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      March 30, 2020 3:13pm
coge

Benjamin Franklin once said: “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”

New Zealanders have lost their essential liberties, Economic freedom, freedom of movement, and freedom of association. At the behest of their Govt, for what they have been told, is a minimum of twenty eight days. That’s plenty of time to dwell on those circumstances, and begin to demand answers. How was this allowed to occur under this Govt’s tenure. Why was nothing of significance done earlier? It was obvious for the last six weeks that this was coming. Why did this Govt not act sooner? Why should we now believe they have suddenly acquired the competence to deal with this crisis now? Which all happened under their watch.

We the Kiwi people, have allowed the PM 28 to address this situation. I believe I speak for growing number of us, that we will not accept one minute more.
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March 30, 2020 10:15am
- Komata
  
  Cge@1015
  
  You may indeed speak for a growing number of Kiwi’s, but unless Simon ( as leader of the opposition and therefore your political voice) agrees with you, you are unlikely to be heard.
  
  Based on his current silence, I doubt that he will be making any attempt to rock the boat or ask the necessary questions.
  
  RINOS come in a variety of shapes…
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:37am
  - Tall Man
    
    There are plenty of comments on the National party website. Take the lack of reporting up with your media source maybe.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:08am
- Brian McDonald
  
  coge, you’re not even using your own name. But maybe if you’re going to lead the revolution you could use the name yogi because it rhymes with coge. You could be yogi bear in a Bearsuit, kids would love it.
  All our Parliamentarians support the status quo and none of them are stopped from speaking out if they do not.
  In wartime food was rationed, right now the movement is rationed while we track a microscopic virus of uncertain deadliness.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:51am
  - Tall Man
    
    You’re obviously not missing anything.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:09am
- cha
  
  : “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”
  
  Franklin’s letter wasn’t about liberty. It was about taxes and the legislature’s ability to raise money for defence.
  
  But congrats on your butchering of context.
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:11am
Stu2

Some silly stuff being written right now – yesterday Stuff had a piece saying “Hospitals are being stretched to breaking point”

We’ve got 20 odd hospitalised. They will have that many in every corridor in New York or Florence
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March 30, 2020 10:21am
- Evadne
  
  The Herald had an article yesterday saying that some GP practices will go under because the restrictions have caused patient numbers to drop while costs have increased, and there isn’t enough work. They’re talking about laying off staff (nurses etc).
  
  Maybe that’s the breaking point they’re referring to?
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:53am
  - Evadne
    
    Anecdotally, I’ve also heard from health staff in non-acute areas (eg radiology clinics, labs) reduced to part time (and pay cuts) because of the ban on elective, non-urgent healthcare.
    
    Another “breaking point”.
    
    (Not to mention all the coming adverse health outcomes from those whose cancer or heart disease or kidney failure are missed because their appointments are cancelled).
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:58am
    - coge
      
      Yes. Such consequences and many, many more you won’t hear about at the daily 1pm briefing.
      
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      March 30, 2020 12:47pm
    - Inandout
      
      Eva, back room public servants are on full pay; what gives with health workers?
      
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      March 30, 2020 3:29pm
    - Nickc2
      
      No doubt our illustrious health minister has a few prayers he can e-mail them to make up for things.
      
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      March 30, 2020 4:14pm
- Tall Man
  
  Rhetoric and hyperbole, the stock mode of ardern and the poor quality media.
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:06am
- NoCash
  
  The maternity wards will be stretched come Dec, any planning for that?
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:27am
Steve James

[Deleted – post with some context, not a random link, ?spam. Mod]
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March 30, 2020 10:22am
Pete George

Trump seems to think Covid-19 is an opportunity to promote his popularity:

President Trump is a ratings hit. Since reviving the daily White House briefing Mr. Trump and his coronavirus updates have attracted an average audience of 8.5 million on cable news, roughly the viewership of the season finale of ‘The Bachelor.’ Numbers are continuing to ris.

On Monday, nearly 12.2 million people watched Mr. Trump’s briefing on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, according to Nielsen — ‘Monday Night Football’ numbers. Millions more are watching on ABC, CBS, NBC and online streaming sites, and the audience is expanding. On Monday, Fox News alone attracted 6.2 million viewers for the president’s briefing — an astounding number for a 6 p.m. cable broadcast, more akin to the viewership for a popular prime-time sitcom.

The CBS News poll said 13 percent of Republicans trusted the news media for information about the virus.” Michael M. Grynbaum @NYTimes

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1244320570315018240

If he talks more about all the sick and dying Americans he might increase his ratings more.

The Vietnam war was good for ratings, but not so good for soldiers or civilians.
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March 30, 2020 10:25am
- kowtow
  
  The Vietnam war was very bad for civilians .
  
  Comrade Ho and his politbureau cohorts were prepared to sacrifice millions of Vietnamese lives in their quest to seize power for themselves.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:32am
  - david
    
    To the locals he was “Uncle Ho” a soft reference to a benign, non-threatening and fatherly figure.
    c.f. The image that our anointed PM is cultivating with frequent references to “kind”, and “ us” and “we’re in this together’, “we can do this” and mum too” and a sycophantic media laudIng her leadership and humanity.
    
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    March 30, 2020 12:35pm
    - Jack5
      
      David says of Ho Chi Minh: “To the locals he was “Uncle Ho” a soft reference to a benign, non-threatening and fatherly figure.”
      
      But not to the scores of thousands of South Vietnamese who risked murder and rape by pirates as they fled the “liberated” country in little boats.
      
      Not to the Vietnamese who know of the Hue massacre of thousands in 1968, some of the victims buried alive.
      
      Not to the Montagnards massacred by Viet Cong at Dak Son in 1967.
      
      The Communist Government of Vietnam doesn’t acknowledge these massacres.
      
      Suitable for a wet day isolated at home, the following short video tells the story of British-led troops, mainly Indian and re-armed Japanese prisoners, in 1945 fighting Ho Chih Minh. If the French who arrived to take over hadn’t stuffed things up, says the film maker, Vietnam today might have been a democracy.
      
      https://youtu.be/1w-cv2CJbfI
      
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      March 30, 2020 1:17pm
      - curry4me
        
        Jack5: I saw that a while ago. Very good vid.
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:34pm
      - kowtow
        
        Thanks for that and I enjoy Feltons vids.
        
        What he doesn’t mention is while the British occupied the south , the Chinese by agreement had occupied the north and with Chinese cooperation Ho managed to establish himself there. The Chinese occupation was so bad Ho agreed to let the French back in to the north in order to get rid of the Chinese .
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:47pm
Komata

PG@1025

Not a fan then?
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March 30, 2020 10:38am
greybeard

This morning Mike Hosking interviewed the P.M.
( You can replay this from the NewstalkZB website, the “On Demand” link ).
At about 7:20am, in reply to Hosking’s final observation, she concluded the interview with this statement:

“No, no, because I think the alternative is that we have herd immunity and we lose tens of thousands of New Zealanders.
I’d say that would bugger us too”.

What exactly does that mean?
I replayed this several times and I am sure I have the transcription correct.
I thought that “herd immunity” was a good thing.
She seems to think it is a bad thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
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March 30, 2020 10:42am
- rangitoto
  
  Herd immunity requires that a large proportion of the population get infected and become immune. At that point it becomes difficult for the disease to spread any further. However a percentage of the number infected will die. If three million have to be infected to achieve herd immunity then a 1% death rate would mean 30,000 deaths.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:58am
  - Stu2
    
    She probably meant if we got herd immunity quickly (ala what Boris was going to do) via limited intervention. So large numbers of infections early and ICU/ventilator shortages.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:19am
  - cmm
    
    30,000/1% deaths seems a bit high. Nobody is anywhere near that.
    
    Italy has so far had a death rate of 1 in 5000 ie. less than 1000 when sized to NZ and they have a far worse situation than we do (sicker people, worse crowding, worse air pollution). It would be hard to believe that they are still going to lose 50x as many people as they have.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:22am
    - Stu2
      
      Opps, clicked on report not reply
      
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      March 30, 2020 1:09pm
  - MCos
    
    As I recall Boris was shot down in flames when he suggested the herd immunity solution for his jurisdiction.
    
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    March 30, 2020 11:52am
    - septic skeptic
      
      I believe Mexico is going down the carry on as normal route. Keep an eye on how they finish up, it will be revealing either way.
      
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      March 30, 2020 12:41pm
      - PhilBest
        
        And irony of ironies, they’re policing their border to stop people crossing illegally from the USA to them…
        
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        March 30, 2020 2:28pm
    - Maggy Wassilieff
      
      The Swedes are going the herd immunity route
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/herd-immunity-way-impasse/
      
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      March 30, 2020 4:11pm
- Evadne
  
  It means she’s out of her depth and doesn’t know what she’s talking about.
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:00am
- Tall Man
  
  Ha ha ha. You listened to it expected logic and intelligence.
  
  That’s two strikes from me ?
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:02am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  Herd immunity means the Govt does not have to pay for the vaccine when it becomes available. I think we have seen this before
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:30am
  - Classic Liberal
    
    Not so. Usually herd immunity means wide-spread vaccination. Even if we had herd immunity because many people had become infected, the aim will remain to make vaccine easily available to the vulnerable and health workers. Once a vaccine is availabe.
    
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    March 30, 2020 6:08pm
Steve Otto(North Shore)

Trying to find the wall department at Walmart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa5UglhSo60
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March 30, 2020 10:45am
kowtow

This guy died because of covid 19 but not from it , sadly there’ll be many more like him but not being “important” those stats ( lives) won’t count and the Media Party won’t report them.

‘Thomas Schaefer, the finance minister of Germany’s Hesse state, has committed suicide apparently after becoming “deeply worried” over how to cope with the economic fallout from the coronavirus, state premier Volker Bouffier said on Sunday.’

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/german-state-minister-kills-coronavirus-hits-economy-200329165242615.html
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March 30, 2020 10:59am
- DeepBlue
  
  Sad. He could have just resigned. This shows how suicidal thoughts take over so quickly and dominate the brain. My heart goes out to his family.
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:12pm
Paul Marsden

Good news for sole traders waiting for Business Number to apply for wage subsidy. Business number is no longer required.
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March 30, 2020 11:04am
jv

Spot on from Mike Hosking this morning. She is all about stage performance and controlling the message.

She has no ability to take us along with her, she just instructs and implores with her funny faces. Everything but everything is scripted. Trust is lost as soon as the messages start changing. She has no real leadership skills. We are just doing what we are told.
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March 30, 2020 11:08am
- MCos
  
  Did he say all that?
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:53am
  - Tall Man
    
    Did he say he did.
    
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    March 30, 2020 1:01pm
  - jv
    
    That is why there is a new paragraph.
    
    But while I have your attention he also said that she was running a very fine line between being an actual leader and [being] a tv and radio presenter. I could not agree more.
    
    And on being an actual leader [in my considered opinion] one of several necessary leadership qualities that she is devoid of is “instinct” as, perhaps, distinct from political instinct.
    
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    March 30, 2020 5:20pm
rightoverlabour

Any one else have serious misgivings about the enthusiastic advertising of the Dob In hotline ? Now where I live, the only thing not obeying the quarantine are the feral rabbits. Should I be reporting them? And I am sure I saw some Aliens congregating over the hills near my place too. I am so torn in my civic duty..

“The affected children were instructed to report any activities or conversations that could be considered treacherous. Children reported the activity of neighbors, teachers, religious leaders, and even their own family.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children%27s_propaganda_in_Nazi_Germany#cite_note-:3-2
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March 30, 2020 11:16am
- JamesP
  
  I think the truth is a bit simpler.
  
  The Police recently introduced online reporting for minor theft, wilful damage, and stuff like that. This wasn’t with the intent of starting a pogrom of minor offenders. It was to reduce the cost of making minor reports, which didn’t have to be of high quality (ie. taken by a trained person) because they were almost invariably not investigated.
  
  Same with *555. It’s more of a vent for people frustrated with rubbish drivers than it is a serious attempt to stop or investigate traffic offending.
  
  So until I see I see evidence to the contrary I’m willing to bet the online tool was cobbled together quickly to stop Police call centres from being inundated with reports of potential self isolation breaches. ie. The reports never get actioned.
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:18pm
  - Classic Liberal
    
    Still a nasty precedent, especially considering some of the rules are still vague and contradictory (e.g. how far one can walk or cycle). After we had to hear PC Bush spouting off against ATM use while it is actually needed and permitted, I can’t trust the Police to be informed or reasonable!
    
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    March 30, 2020 6:15pm
kevn

@jv… At times like this I always wonder, how would Key/English have managed it?
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March 30, 2020 11:17am
- Prince
  
  Key’s strength was to find and build a strong team around him. He delegated well, and expected his ministers to perform.
  Ardern is having to shoulder most of the heavy lifting herself. It’s starting to show.
  
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  March 30, 2020 12:36pm
  - DeepBlue
    
    I really do fear for the country should Kelvin Davies have to step up. Right now we need the country pulling in one direction and that is Jacinda’s talent.
    
    People may not like what she is doing, but we are on this path so we have to get through it as quickly as possible.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:16pm
- curry4me
  
  kevn: Or for that matter, a cabinet made of random names from White Pages NZ?
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:38pm
WaveyDavey

Can I suggest that everyone takes 5 minutes to read this

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-

“You might think it would be easy to calculate death rates. Death is a stark and easy-to-measure end point. In my working life (I’m a retired pathology professor) I usually come across studies that express it comparably and as a ratio: the number of deaths in a given period of time in an area, divided by that area’s population. For example, 10 deaths per 1,000 population per year. So just three numbers:

The population who have contracted the disease
The number dying of disease
The relevant time period

The trouble is that in the Covid-19 crisis each one of these numbers is unclear.”

The basic message is “we don’t know” and there is nothing wrong with that.

What is wrong is the media misusing statistics in the cause of sensationalism
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March 30, 2020 11:20am
- kowtow
  
  Stats ?
  Correct me if I’m wrong, but unless one tests a genuinely large and representative sample of the general population we will never know its extent or relevant rates as reported?
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:49am
  - WaveyDavey
    
    Which is one of the points that this article makes
    
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    March 30, 2020 12:32pm
  - cmm
    
    Testing of the population is not required if you want to look at deaths per population. You only need to test the dead people. You really don’t need to know the number of infected people for that purpose.
    
    We only need a widely tested population if we want to know deaths per infected person. This testing is required to tell the difference between infected people and the population at large. This is a number we really have no idea about.
    
    But, yes, I agree with the thesis: we have numbers that are difficult to trust and people making a huge deal out of them.
    
    Counting deaths is a challenge due to the died with vs died from problem. If some person died of 4 diseases then which disease do you attribute the death to?
    
    It is no wonder that we see something like a 50:1 disparity between analyses of the same situation.
    
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    March 30, 2020 1:15pm
Stu2

There are log graphs in this https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

which show deaths in NY and Michigan are still doubling every 2 days (bottom graph) and not increasing as quickly in Italy and Spain (top graph)
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March 30, 2020 11:43am
- KevO'Brien
  
  Such show cumulative numbers are naturally scary.
  
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  March 30, 2020 12:15pm
  - surfing
    
    Ultimately most of the population will contract covid-19. I just hope we don’t flatten the curve too much so that it takes years to get through this.
    
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    March 30, 2020 12:51pm
RW Capitalist

It’s now 4 days and still haven’t heard from MBIE about my “essential service” status for my business, re service to pharmacies.
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March 30, 2020 11:53am
- cmm
  
  Just do it.
  
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  March 30, 2020 1:05pm
- DeepBlue
  
  If you turn up at a pharmacy they have two choices. Let you in and pay your bill OR slam the door in your face. You’ll find out how essential you are soon enough without MBIE’s advice.
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:20pm
- Pharmachick
  
  Keep the pharmacies going NO MATTER WHAT.
  
  There’s a huge number of non COVID-19 patients that need their regular meds.
  
  We’re already hearing about cancer Px treatment delayed in case of ED overwhelmed…
  
  It’s an essential service. Not because I said so, just because it is.
  
  “History will judge societies and governments — and their institutions — not by how big they are or how well they serve the rich and the powerful, but by how effectively they respond to the needs of the poor and the helpless”
  Cesar Chavez
  [and yes I get that I’m really jumping the shark quoting him here, but…]
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:55pm
Maggie Pie

It’s been a hectic time. Finally have 3 days off 😀
A friend re-tweets that it’s “business as usual in China’s wet markets”.
No matter your fancy for dinner just take you pick – fresh Bats, Dogs, Cats, Scorpians….

https://twitter.com/CassandraRules/status/1244378296546181122
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March 30, 2020 12:09pm
Fletch

Yes, Minister on the four stage strategy..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak
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March 30, 2020 12:12pm
- Ed Snack
  
  Classic, always thought of that show as more of a documentary than anything else.
  
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  March 30, 2020 1:57pm
  - PhilBest
    
    Richard Prebble in his famous book, said that once he became an elected Minister of the Crown, he realised that “Yes, Minister” WAS a documentary.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:32pm
MrTips

Dear diary
Day 5: new game. The Covid19 girl on the radio and everywhere sounds like the Briscoes girl if you close your eyes. Waiting for her to announce the next govt sell out.
Second eldest son complained of headache and thought he had COVID19 this morning. I told him no, that’s called homework followed by the dishes.
Random thought: has anyone told the Amish about this?
Be kind and practice social distancing from our elders we’re told. I am. But the mother in law keeps finding her way out of the attic.
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March 30, 2020 12:53pm
- Pharmachick
  
  Please, please, please keep posting these.
  
  And 12 months from now, collate and publish!
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:06pm
Wired-one

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2020/03/countdown-bringing-back-specials-as-coronavirus-panic-buying-bedlam-slows-down.html

Absolutely bullshit. You tried to make as much money as possible until people started to call you out on it.
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March 30, 2020 12:59pm
- MCos
  
  Why do you hate capitalism?
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:11pm
  - Simon Gotlieb
    
    There’s a big difference between capitalism and exploitation of a monopoly position.
    
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    March 30, 2020 9:52pm
Pharmachick

Hey all,

got a suggestion and no idea how to get the concept out there in NZ as I haven’t heard of it being implemented thus far:

We have shut all labs that aren’t working on COVID-19 or essential work. Professional research labs have cases and cases of gloves, pairs of safety goggles, face shields, single use lab coats and gowns (in some cases), show covers etc.

We collected ours up and sent to medical professionals that were running short in BC. My lab alone had 4 unopened cases (1000 gloves/case) and 6 pairs of safety glasses and we’re only n = 7 + me.

If NZ heath care professionals and supply chains start to run short DHBs need to turn to the Deans or Heads of Departments of the Science and Medical and Pharmacy schools at the universities. The labs are SHUT and they have stockpiles of precious resources.

I mentioned this to a colleague by telecon on Tuesday (she is a pediatric intensivist, recently reassigned to adult in the Netherlands) and they hadn’t thought about it either, despite their hospital complex having a university/medical research wing… they subsequently stocked up!
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March 30, 2020 1:05pm
Tasman Terror

If the Nats campaign on their economic management credentials they will win the election because would you seriously want Shane Jones, Phil Twyford, Megan Woods , Ian Lee’s- Galloway , and Grant Robertson to lead the recovery. Before becoming MPs they were respectively a fisheries negotiator, an aid organiser, an academic on gender studies, head of the nurses unit, and a staffer in Helen Clark’s office. So no business leading experience amongst these fools and a shallow talent and work ethic and a track record of failure before the crisis hit. Wouldn’t we want people like Paul Goldsmith (economist), Judith Collins (commercial Lawyer), Andrew Bailey (merchant banker), Christopher Luzon ex head of ICI and Air New Zealand to run the recovery? I would be interested in the view of the lefties because it will be the people you say you care for who are going to hurt hardest by the punishing recession. In particular would you want Phil Twyford to project manage the building of your house or Judith Collins? If you answer Twyford then you deserve to be poor if you aren’t already.
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March 30, 2020 1:14pm
- Wired-one
  
  Our media has already decided that Ardern gets a second term. Move on.
  
  13 1
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  March 30, 2020 1:31pm
  - RW Capitalist
    
    or they are trying to.
    Remember “No matter what we do………”
    
    11 3
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    March 30, 2020 1:57pm
- Stu2
  
  In particular would you want Phil Twyford to project manage the building of your house or Judith Collins?
  
  Wouldn’t want either of them
  
  6 2
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  March 30, 2020 1:44pm
- RW Capitalist
  
  Absolutely agree.
  National needs to look at history.
  Who won the post war election in Britain?
  Labour
  How did they win it?
  By telling people, Churchill was great at fighting and winning a war, but we (Labour) will rebuild the peace.
  They were wrong, they made a complete mess that took almost to Thatcher to recover from.
  But National will NOT do anything like the stupidity of that Labour govt. or this one.
  
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  March 30, 2020 1:56pm
curry4me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_V07XOonR4

The Conservatives Finally Turn on China. Maybe it’ll start a trend. I wonder if the Huawei 5G deal will be toast? There is a growing realization that China is not playing well with others. Presumably international supply chains will have to be redirected too.
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March 30, 2020 1:48pm
curry4me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRV_Zlj2sw0
BoJo says Fourth Reich support not needed. Brussels does little for Spain, or Italy. Italians burn Fourth Reich flags. Teachers’ Pet says EU must rise to the challenge, or risk losing legitimacy. British family turn their house into a nightclub to avoid boredom.
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March 30, 2020 1:48pm
RW Capitalist

Sit quietly and I’ll tell you our story.
My wife has PAH (Pulmonary, Arterial Hypertension) and Chronic Heart Failure. Thought to be from her severe congenital scoliosis, for which she had 1 x 8hr operation and 1 x 12hr op. in 2003 and 2010 respectively.
I would say, with these conditions and the fact that she is on Oxygen 24/7, can hardly walk to the toilet and back. That she would be classed as at serious risk.
If I get something, I could give it to her.
So I paid $45 to get the flu jab early, she is entitled to one as of 3 April, so she said she would wait.
Now I see they are trying to delay it to mid April???
When I got, what I thought was a cold (I wouldn’t get a cold more than once every 5 yrs).
So I rang the Dr. and asked to be tested for Covid 19. The answer was no and he prescribed us both some serious antibiotics. Which we are taking, her along with the other pharmacy of drugs she has to take.
2 days before the lock down, her nurse rang to cancel all his community visits, to keep abreast of her condition.
IMO, this entire story is NOT indicative of a caring health service that this govt. is in charge of.
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March 30, 2020 1:51pm
- Poppa
  
  Insanity prevails RWC
  
  There will be many deaths which are caused by actions of the govt rather than the virus.My mate says the hospital here is never been so quiet as elective surgery is put on hold. Obviously road accidents are basically on hold as well
  
  It astounds me that people cannot see this for what it is. A panic out of control
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:26pm
  - mara
    
    Poppa, the line between elective, semi-elective and required surgery may be getting blurred. I was gearing up for a defib. device to be inserted in my chest because of unstable chronic heart failure but my GP kindly suggested that this requirement might be lowered a bit on the list so as to free up beds for cov19. On the plus side, I’d rather drop dead with an MI at home than choke in a hospital.
    Not being ghoulish – this sort of thing is reality for many.
    
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    March 30, 2020 7:22pm
RW Capitalist

So
I guess a flash mob
is now defined as
a flock of freshly shorn sheep.
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March 30, 2020 2:06pm
Poppa

I had a discussion with a neighbour earlier & he is in charge of a lot of staff at a private school

He said they can’t even get their sports grounds mowed & the whole place is going to ruin. He talked to golf club greenkeepers & the same thing

When will this circus end? These people are sitting on machines in the open talking to nobody FFS!!
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March 30, 2020 2:21pm
- Batman
  
  Oh no! Long grass!
  
  I’m sure plenty of people would gladly lay down their lives so that some long grass can be mowed….
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:25pm
  - Poppa
    
    The point I am making is, how are they harming anyone by doing their greenkeeping duties?
    
    I have been out painting my fence today, only talked to one person & that was from a distance.
    
    This whole thing is madness & I hope they work out one day that this virus is here to stay like all others & we can’t stay locked up forever
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:31pm
    - Pharmachick
      
      YES. THEY. ARE.
      
      They need to move from their family home to the “grass mowing site”. At some point run out of petrol… go get petrol… exposed to petrol station attendants (bless them) who are exposed to many more people than most… it goes on.
      
      Stop with the petty carry on. I cannot believe you actually made any sort of sane (it is not) argument about mowing bloody lawns.
      
      Stay home.
      
      Get infected lightly and late and not badly or not at all.
      
      Don’t endanger our healthcare workers (or our petrol station attendants).
      
      Public health advisory ends here.
      
      5 2
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      March 30, 2020 4:48pm
      - cmm
        
        These days most petrol stations take cards at the pump. The petrol attendant doesn’t need to come withing 20 metres.
        
        Most mowers are transported to site on trailers behind a vehicle driven by the mower operator.
        
        In short, that is way less exposure than going for a walk.
        
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        March 30, 2020 5:15pm
      - rangitoto
        
        Petrol Stations in this area using night pay facilities. You cant go into the shop. They implemented this before the Govt lockdown. They are orders of magnitude safer than going to the supermarket.
        
        2 1
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        March 30, 2020 5:43pm
      - Tall Man
        
        Phew, take a breath Pharma.
        
        Purchase of petrol is permitted and is being done safely.
        
        Most of us with rural properties buy in bulk as I am sure the school, playing field caretaker does as well. We filled one car today plus 4 large cans (plastic cindy 🙂 ) all without contact with the service people.
        
        Many grasses are destroyed by being too long and cannot be allowed to over grow and most bowling clubs do not have grass but something akin to grass which again cannot be allowed to over grow.
        
        There is no ore chance of having an unforeseen event in the middle of a football pitch than climbing a ladder in your own back yard.
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:29pm
  - Martin Williams
    
    Yep. Some people are just going to have to accept that berms will not be mown.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:42pm
  - cmm
    
    Long grass, next a bit of tagging and other vandalism, next RTD bottles & bongs. That is how society slides into decay.
    
    I’m absolutely certain that a single guy on his ride-on mowing a school’s playground is not going to be spreading the virus.
    
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    March 30, 2020 2:42pm
    - mikenmildagain
      
      You really don’t get this whole lockdown thing, do you?
      First you want to be able to surf/fish/tramp, now you want all the green-keepers back at work.
      
      5 13
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      March 30, 2020 3:44pm
      - cmm
        
        Where’s the science behind your idea of lockdown?
        
        The only thing that makes sense so far is the “bubble” analogy. None of the tramping/lawn mowing/whatever break the bubble.
        
        10 3
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        March 30, 2020 4:09pm
      - Steve Otto(North Shore)
        
        Mike is a troll. Don’t get trolled by a leftie.
        
        10 2
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        March 30, 2020 4:47pm
      - mikenmildagain
        
        Sigh. The idea is to limit the whole range of non-essential activities.
        You let the green-keeper mow the golf course. Will s/he be the only one maintaining the course, or will others be there, entering the equipment shed, etc? The green-keeper will need to travel to and from work, and obtain fuel for the mowers – more interactions.
        Multiply this by all the golf courses in the country. Now add all the other sports fields and public parks that need maintenance too. And then start thinking of all the other non-essential activities that everyone else would want to add after hearing that green-keepers were exempt from restrictions.
        Is this really so hard to understand?
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BA9eTXwGIk
        
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        March 30, 2020 4:56pm
      - Tall Man
        
        Still waiting for those dreadful figures of all those accidents occurring while pursuing non impact recreational personal activities………..
        
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        March 30, 2020 10:32pm
    - Pharmachick
      
      Because sooner or later they need petrol (lawn mowers); acetone (anti-graffiti removers); recycling depots (RTD bottles) and that brings each of these people into contact with others.
      
      And then they get sick.
      
      Stay home. Stay well. Get sick later when the hospitals can cope with it, to get sick later with a milder version. Just STOP putting others at risk with your personal agenda.
      
      7 3
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      March 30, 2020 4:51pm
      - Poppa
        
        I totally agree Chick
        
        The fact is at some point we need to get on with it & what will be will be
        
        Whether that is next week or in 6 months time
        
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        March 30, 2020 5:10pm
- surfing
  
  I’d suppose the problem is management and definition creep.
  
  Even with strict guidelines you see people pushing the rules.
  
  If you open up all of these different types of solo jobs, you’d pretty much have half the workforce back in action, and with definition creep the virus would continue spreading.
  
  But I agree, it is maddening.
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:30pm
- rightoverlabour
  
  absolutely. Essential people like IT managers have to get permission from some goon to go and reboot servers if they go down… Complete and utter bollocks. Hopefully at the end of this the masses will be so pissed off….
  
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  March 30, 2020 2:52pm
- godruelf
  
  Exactly the blanket bans do not appear to have been on a risk based approach.
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:18pm
kowtow

To be fair at least one member of the fourth estate had the temerity to question Police Commissioner Bush on the Hone Henchmen checkpoints at today’s 1 pm update.

I was heartened by his reply to the effect that the police are present to ensure the checkpoints are conducted lawfully .

The next question should have been how do police officers ensure that law breakers break the law lawfully but the questions quickly and conveniently switched back to the health guy and Bush would have breathed a sigh of relief.

We don’t live in Aotearoa , we live in Wonderland and have all gone down the rabbit hole.
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March 30, 2020 2:21pm
Tasman Terror

While the media try and influence elections it didn’t go so well for them with the nasty born to rule unpleasant leftie Hillary Clinton did it Wired-one? As her husband said ‘’ it’s about the economy stupid.”
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March 30, 2020 2:24pm
DeepBlue

3 weeks ago I made Flu vax appointment for 8 April. I have a pre existing condition.

Just been phoned by Medical Centre they are cancelling all appointments as there is NO FLU VAX in the country for 2 weeks. I’m to try and ring for an appointment then.

Our Minister of Health was assuring us there would be no shortage when interviewed last fortnight. Cluster*** again
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March 30, 2020 2:33pm
- Stu2
  
  Had mine last Wednesday, so there are some supplies
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:27pm
  - mikenmildagain
    
    Got mine last week too.
    
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    March 30, 2020 4:59pm
  - DeepBlue
    
    … last Wednesday there were some supplies.
    
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    March 30, 2020 5:01pm
  - cmm
    
    were some supplies.
    
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    March 30, 2020 5:11pm
- rockape
  
  Over 70 and mine cancelled at last minute due to lack of supply. Wife an ED nurse the same. maybe it hasnt got to South Island yet!
  
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  March 30, 2020 4:18pm
- Stu2
  
  Just had an email from the surgery
  
  “There has been a nationwide delay in the distribution of flu vaccines.
  
  Because of this supply disruption, we cannot book any more flu vaccine clinics until this has been resolved”
  
  Wonder if air freight capacity is behind this, lots of air freight used to travel on the passenger jets
  
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  March 30, 2020 5:00pm
- MCos
  
  I had one on Thursday at Three Kings, Auckland.
  However
  My sister dipped out in Island Bay and was told to return in three days.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:04pm
Fletch

It seems that two police officers have caught the virus, and so now we have several hundred officers self-isolating as a result.

Not sure what we’re going to do if all the police get sick.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/two-kiwi-police-officers-contract-coronavirus-several-hundred-self-isolating
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March 30, 2020 2:44pm
- kowtow
  
  Hone’s Henchmen Militia could be sworn in, they’re already running roadblocks with Plod alongside.
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:22pm
- Poppa
  
  My dry sense of humour finds that quite funny
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:30pm
- septic skeptic
  
  Several hundred self isolating over these two and other things!
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:39pm
Nickc2

Hey WHO are showing their true colours. This will make the Greens happy:
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/world-health-organisation-wipes-israel-off-the-map-replaces-it-with-palestine.html
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March 30, 2020 3:17pm
burt

Breaking news;
As well as allowing Halal butchers to open Italian restaurants are now open so Pastafarians can buy the pasta they most prefer.
14 1
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March 30, 2020 3:19pm
- Inandout
  
  If I was a bakery I would bake bread for a day because there is no flour in the supermarkets.
  
  5 1
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  March 30, 2020 5:52pm
  - Tall Man
    
    Bought a 20 kg hi grade flour from Pak n Save today $30.
    
    Home made pizza on home made base. Yummy.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:21pm
cmm

Every time She says tens of thousands may die, her credibility goes down…
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March 30, 2020 3:33pm
- septic skeptic
  
  I am sure they have worked out that this is one target where starting out with a ludicrously high number works in their favour.
  
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  March 30, 2020 3:41pm
  - Tall Man
    
    Correct, hard to prove she didn’t save 80,000.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:19pm
lastmanstanding

I suggest the longer the lockdown goes on the more Cindy turns up every day to lecture hector the more likely the COL will be tossed out come the elections whichever year in the future they may be.
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March 30, 2020 3:39pm
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  She loves it
  
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  March 30, 2020 4:50pm
Prince

‘We’re all in this together’ says the Govt.
Unless you are an employer, a supermarket chain or a landlord, in which case we will set up a reporting mechanism to tie you up in false claims by your competitors and the disaffected.
Labour despises the above groups, and will take this opportunity to make life difficult for them while putting on a ‘kind’ face.
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March 30, 2020 4:12pm
Shut the hell up you Fascist!

It’s tragic the way the virus targets the elderly and vulnerable.

Some of my more cynical friends are referring to the coronavirus-19 as “the taxpayer’s friend”.
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March 30, 2020 4:18pm
- Poppa
  
  I am not so sure
  
  I can clearly see our friend Robbo putting up tax rates to 40%. And that is just the start
  
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  March 30, 2020 4:47pm
- kowtow
  
  I take your point , but when we come out of this it’ll be the taxpayer footing one hell of an enormous bill to pay for the shut down and its consequences.
  
  And while we’re taking death , it’s interesting how this govt are adamant it will not accept a high death rate among the elderly , but from its outset it has been prepared to off the unborn by the thousand.
  
  And proudly.
  
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  March 30, 2020 4:54pm
- Inandout
  
  Shut, some comics may think ‘thems that dies will be the lucky ones’.
  
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  March 30, 2020 5:39pm
- Ian Boag
  
  God’s solution to the cost of National Super ….
  
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  March 30, 2020 6:06pm
Waipuk

Is anyone taking bets on how long this will actually last?

When lockdown is starting to be lifted will it be by area, regional, or national?

As front line medical staff are not getting the PPE that they believe they should have should medical staff be treated as leapers and hospitals as death camps?
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March 30, 2020 4:36pm
- mikenmildagain
  
  Jumping doctors?
  
  4 8
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  March 30, 2020 5:00pm
- mara
  
  Waipuk if medical staff are leaping I’d be standing clear on the footpath .. poor buggers; things are worse than I thought. Ardern needs to form a committee to look into the matter.
  
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  March 30, 2020 6:48pm
- cmm
  
  Imagine the lack of compliance if they lift the lockdown by area.
  
  Many small rural towns could potentially remove lockdown if they are isolated and nobody is infected.
  
  But would the good people of Auckland and other cities think it was fair? Would the not-so-good people of those same cities just say bagger it and do what the hell they want?
  
  I suspect Hone’s Angels will decide to go out of lockdown when they see fit, and the Plods will just go along with it like they already are.
  
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  March 30, 2020 7:01pm
- Lucia Maria
  
  I’m hoping after two weeks it will realised that it’s pointless and restrictions will be eased. Already we can (or will be able to) order “essential goods” online, such as heaters and blankets.
  
  I’m menopausal. A Wild Yam and Chaste Tree supplement is essential for me, yet Health Post is unable to trade. I’m hoping my overseas order for Pycnogenol gets through, yet another essential for menopause hot flashes, otherwise I can’t sleep. Still good for 2 weeks, but I need that order.
  
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  March 30, 2020 7:09pm
RW Capitalist

Strange things I have seen
1. went to the super market, small amount of shopping, Saw the guy marking tires for parking, car park only 1/4 full, essential service?
2. over taken in a 70Km zone by guy doing at least 120Km/hr, police doing their job?
3. Sign advertising National candidate meeting (put up days before lock down and had an additional “Cancelled” sign put across it, has today been vandalized….Labour party tactics again?
4. The other day, on TV, saw a TV 1 reporter outside (live) the Dunedin stadium (presumably with a camera man) telling us that the stadium was empty and the games had been cancelled.
Essential service my ass.
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March 30, 2020 4:39pm
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  No visits to gang places – where they have toilet paper and guns
  
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  March 30, 2020 4:52pm
  - Shut the hell up you Fascist!
    
    If there is no bathroom tissue do we have to use our finger like in the undeveloped world?
    
    Cool!
    
    4 2
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    March 30, 2020 5:08pm
    - Tall Man
      
      It’s not using the fingers that’s the problem, it’s what happens next 🙁
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:15pm
- Waipuk
  
  Why are reporters (& camera operators) allowed to go out to stand in front of hospitals, stadiums, and empty streets. What a complete waste of time and money as well as not upholding the principle of the lockdown.
  
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  March 30, 2020 5:04pm
  - mara
    
    Waipuk for the same reason they stand in ankle deep water and gale force winds when the weather is a bit crook which is to say no bloody reason at all. It’s all they know and what most viewers mindlessly expect.
    
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    March 30, 2020 6:43pm
cmm

Pissed woman snogging the virus around.

Are we allowed to blame women for their actions when they are drunk? I thought it was always the blokes’ fault…

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/120678551/coronavirus-drunken-antics-at-wellington-wedding-led-to-covid19-cluster
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March 30, 2020 5:09pm
pseudonymous

This “thing”(the lockdown) will be done in two week increments. Two weeks before the planned end another two weeks will be added-and so on and so on. This will last until September. We are are all being softened up gradually.
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March 30, 2020 5:10pm
krazykiwi

This is a well documented, day-by-day summary of the lies: The Comprehensive Timeline of China’s COVID-19 Lies.

I’m yet to be convinced that our own government is playing with a straight bat.
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March 30, 2020 5:17pm
- Tall Man
  
  “Straight” is not very desirable these days, doesn’t enhance the diversity target.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:14pm
- Michael NZ
  
  https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devastating-lies/
  
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  March 30, 2020 11:06pm
Komata

I don’t think this has been on before, but it might be of interest. Hosking is saying what a lot are starting to think. How long before HE is closed down?

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/video/mikes-minute-government-needs-to-change-their-lockdown-messaging/?fbclid=IwAR3IuvebzLnpgi96tePDhlj7PH-p1-EV0Lj9ewo1qH1A2jeXKdOagIyDolE
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March 30, 2020 5:26pm
info@cruzpro.com

In all my memories, and at age 72 I have a few, it seemed that when the economy soured the current government got voted out ASAP irregardless of whether that government caused the problem or not.

Maybe someone with a better knowledge of history can correct me or verify that statement.

In the USA, if something really bad happens on an aircraft carrier the captain is sacked, whether he was asleep or not. The USA doesn’t like unlucky captains and it really, really makes the captains work hard to make sure their underlings are well trained and onto it.
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March 30, 2020 5:55pm
- Maggy Wassilieff
  
  Might be why most CoL MPs are keeping a very low profile.
  
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  March 30, 2020 6:21pm
greybeard

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/international/120688875/raelene-castle-to-take-50-per-cent-pay-cut-as-rugby-australia-posts-huge-loss

Well whoop-de-doo.
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March 30, 2020 6:13pm
greybeard

Jacinda “I have my own Stasi ! ” Ardern.
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March 30, 2020 6:24pm
- greybeard
  
  As I said….
  
  https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120688910/coronavirus-life-in-lockdown-turns-new-zealand-into-a-nation-of-narks
  
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  March 30, 2020 7:43pm
Lucia Maria

Hi everyone!

Can’t remember the last time I commented here. See a few names that I recognise and a number I don’t.

Nothing like a good crisis to bring on the blogging and commenting. Hopefully it will end very soon, fingers crossed that sanity returns.

I’m already stir-crazy having worked on a full on project that is just winding up now and all my holiday options have vanished! Thankfully we didn’t book anything.
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March 30, 2020 6:53pm
- Lucia Maria
  
  Well, that was fast. 🙂
  Moderators are on the ball here.
  
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  March 30, 2020 6:58pm
- Tony Stuart
  
  Welcome back LM 😀
  
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  March 30, 2020 7:05pm
  - Lucia Maria
    
    Thanks! Though it seems the mod has gone off for dinner. No telling how long this comment will languish before you see it.
    
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    March 30, 2020 7:11pm
    - Poppa
      
      I remember you as well. Welcome
      
      I hope you are well & coping with all this stuff going on
      
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      March 30, 2020 8:20pm
cmm

So now 2 plods got Covid and 200 are off in self-isolation.

Which part of social distancing didn’t they understand? How can 2 cops possibly infect an average of 100 others each unless they’re having orgies at work?
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March 30, 2020 7:03pm
- mikenmildagain
  
  Imagine if they were green-keepers…
  
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  March 30, 2020 7:18pm
- Paul Marsden
  
  Crims will be salivating at this news
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:15pm
  - Tall Man
    
    Not really, they may see it as losing their escorts.
    
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    March 30, 2020 10:09pm
- Paul Marsden
  
  I have no doubt that front line police numbers will begin to drop like flies, as the virus infiltrates their ranks. That only leaves the defence force to breach the gap. The ramifications for NZ don’t bare thinking about.
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:41pm
- Rich Prick
  
  Probably in the sand dunes after they chased the rest of us off for going for a walk. Nothing would surprise me by a bunch led by threat-ready Bush.
  
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  March 30, 2020 9:30pm
alwyn

I am pleased to see that our Government is taking on the responsibility for seeing that we remain sober during these dark days.
Under the regulations for “can I buy alcohol” we have.
“The agreed quantity for spirits purchased must be no more than the customs/duty-free allowance which is 3 bottles (or other containers) of spirits or liqueur (each bottle or container can hold a maximum of 1.125 litres) per order. ”
Wow. Is that what the Cabinet is doing these days? Surely they have more important matters? Perhaps they could rein in our Police Commissar?
https://covid19.govt.nz/government-actions/covid-19-alert-level/essential-businesses/
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March 30, 2020 7:18pm
- Poppa
  
  Ok I can go with that. So where do I go? I thought they had closed the wholesalers?
  
  The clowns are running the circus. Get used to it
  
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  March 30, 2020 8:00pm
  - alwyn
    
    I received notice of this from a firm called Whisky And More with a website
    whiskyandmore.co.nz
    I thought that they must have sent out an April 1 newsletter early at first.
    
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    March 30, 2020 8:49pm
    - Tall Man
      
      Government control or stupidity … same thing really.
      
      Let’s see, 3 orders of 3 is 9 but 3 or more can get you ……….
      
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      March 30, 2020 10:07pm
gump

BNZ’s head of research Stephen Toplis says economic activity will not return to pre-crisis levels till 2023, while unemployment might not get back below 5% before 2025

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/104322/bnzs-head-research-stephen-toplis-says-economic-activity-will-not-return-pre-crisis
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March 30, 2020 8:03pm
- Tall Man
  
  Thanks ardern… let’s do this.
  
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  March 30, 2020 10:04pm
curry4me

cmm: Sorry, fat fingers. I reported you when I wanted to reply. Was going to say, I live in Cashmere. [Ignore the ‘report’ Mods]
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March 30, 2020 8:09pm
RdM

I thought these links interesting and worth reading:

“Europe has a recurring problem with “self-destruction and collective suicide”.”
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2020/03/26/sucharit-bhakdi/
Read the transcript.

Comments are worth reading.
And, linked off that and also worth reading, so included here as well:

12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic

Notably, the next post on malagabay shows German deaths are very low comparatively.

So some people question lock-downs.

Not sure how relevant to NZ, but just to remark on it.
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March 30, 2020 8:30pm
Rich Prick

Right China, feed your people with normal food and ban the weird shit. As a country, you are an unacceptable risk to the rest of the world. Get your shit together or the rest of us will isolate you economically. We see the stuff your citizens try to bring into our country. Eating bats, worms and snakes may have been necessary in the 1970s, but not now. Our bill should be in the post.
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March 30, 2020 9:23pm
- Rich Prick
  
  Oh cool, the traditional one Chinese commie down tick, fuck off to your diseased ridden consulate you gutless dwarfed commie wonder.
  
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  March 31, 2020 12:16am
Rich Prick

Question, now that we are all on home detention, what are those criminals who were one home detention on now? Endless feeds of One News? I’d be reasonably happy with that if they were also taking a three week lag in toilet paper supply. And they all had a dose of the shits.

I’m beginning to know what it’s like being a prisoner. I’ve got WoFs about to expire, I bet the Police will ticket me. I’d have been less persecuted had I already been in ankle jewellery.
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March 31, 2020 12:13am
Monique Watson

Shut up and listen to the magic: 🙂

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-avg-securebrowser&hsimp=yhs-securebrowser&hspart=avg&p=green+day#id=0&vid=b4e8ab50dcd1f21077b8206d84b573a6&action=click
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March 31, 2020 5:15am

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