Sanders may be unstoppable
Sanders big win in Nevada may have him unstoppable.
Five Thirty Eight not projects the possible outcomes as:
- Sanders majority 46%
- Contested convention 40%
- Biden 9%
- Bloomberg 4%
They also project that even if there is a contested convention, Sanders is forecast to have a plurality of delegates 70% of the time, so 70% x 40% = 28% which added to the 46% chance for a majority means there is a 3 in 4 (74%) chance Sanders will be the candidate as there would be civil war if he has the most delegates but is not made the candidate.
Just as the pundits were wrong on Trump’s electability, maybe they will be wrong on Sanders. But his policies along with his long time defence of communist countries will give the GOP a lot to work with. Vowing to take away every American’s health insurance is risky, to put it mildly. Many establishment Democrats fear he is unelectable.
The hardcore anti Trump voters will still vote for him. But will he appeal to Independents? Or can he get those who normally don’t vote to the polls?
If I was in the US I would very very reluctantly vote for Sanders if he was the candidate. His policies will be an economic disaster that will put millions of people out of work. It is fair to call Sanders a major threat to the US economy.
But Trump is a major threat to the United States itself, and especially the rule of law. So there is no scenario in which I could vote for him. You can recover from an economic recession, but you can’t recover from a President who thinks the job of the Justice Department is to only apply the law to his political opponents.