More Labour dodgy stats

Lindsay Mitchell blogs:

Minister Stuart Nash does a weekly session with National MP, Mark Mitchell, on the Mike Hosking NewstalkZB show.
This morning, before Hosking had even asked an opening question Nash waded in:
NASH: “Hey Mike I haven’t heard you comment on the December figures last year when 19,000  handed in their benefit and got back to work. Was that in one of your commentaries?”HOSKING: “It was actually Stuart. You shouldn’t come on this programme and say ‘I haven’t heard you’ because all that indicates is you’re tuned into the wrong radio station. You need to be where the number one radio show is and the audience is Stuart especially now that it’s election year and you need some votes.NASH: “Well when you think there are 19,000 more people in work than were on the benefit in the last quarter that’s pretty good news . That shows a great economy and good economic management I would say. Wouldn’t you Mike?”

Nash claimed there were 19,000 more people in work than on the benefit last quarter. That is absolutely false.

Yes 19,000 went from a benefit to work, but even more went from work onto a benefit. There is always a churn between welfare and work and what counts is the net numbers.

So what are the net numbers:

• there were 55,341 main benefit grants in the Dec 2019 quarter – the highest number since Dec 2015
•  in December 2017 – just after Labour took over – 9.8% of the working age population was on a benefit. By December 2019 it had grown to 10.5%. 
• In respect of the Jobseeker benefit the number grew from 4.2% to 4.9%