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The Newshub Reid Research poll has National slightly ahead of Labour:

• National 43.3%
• Labour 42.5%
• Greens 5.6%
• NZ First 3.6%
• ACT 1.8%

Governments often get a bounce over summer when political news dies down. This poll was also taken after the infrastructure announcement and Ratana but before National ruled out NZ First.

On this poll National and ACT would have 58 seats and Labour and Greens 62 seats – so a 2% movement would see a change of Government.

Another issue is Greens at the 2017 election did 0.8% worse than the Newshub pre-election poll. If that happened again it would be National 60 seats, Labour 58 seats and ACT 2 seats.

Also worth comparing how this compares to the Newshub poll at the same stage of the 1st term of the last National Government. That had National at 55% and Labour at 31% so hugely different to the tight battle this poll represents.