Trump vs Iran
Newsweek reports:
President Donald Trump approved a U.S. drone strike that killed two senior Iraqi militia officials and the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force. The operation, which Trump signed off Thursday morning, escalated tensions that had been simmering in Iraq during a week of unrest and bloodshed, and it put the U.S. in an aggressive posture in the region.
Qassem Soleimani is a major major figure in Iran. The New Yorker profiled him here. The best comparison I would do is consider him a Dick Cheney – someone with huge authority over foreign and military policy, who is sub-ordinate to only the Supreme Leader (and maybe the President).
I tend to agree with Nikki Haley. Soleimani was a terrorist ringleader, and the mere fact he did so with the authority of Iran shouldn’t be a protection. Trump has made a very strong response to the attack on the US Embassy, which I suspect Iran would have never expected.
But Peter M is right that such a dramatic escalation is not something we have seen before. The doctrine has always been a proportional response, and this is hugely disproportional. West Wing fans will recall the episode where the pros and cons of both were debated by Bartlett and Leo.
I’m less confident that this was done as part of a clear strategy. The best case scenario is Iran behaves better after such a bloody nose, as they fear other leaders could be taken out.
The worst case scenario is Iraq turns into a battleground between Iran and the US, and it’s all out war. The Iraqi Goverment is allied to both countries, and this act could see them having to choose Iran over the US.