Predictions for 2020
Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2020:
- NZ First will not make 5% in the 2020 election
- ACT will gain at least a second MP.
- By the end of 2020 (after three years) the Government will not have achieved even 5% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
- National will win more electorate seats in 2020 than 2017
- The End of Life Choice Bill referendum will pass
- The Cannabis legalisation referendum will fail
- No new political party will enter Parliament in 2020
- The Government’s 2019/20 accounts will breach their Fiscal Responsibility Rules
- The Government will scrap the Fiscal Responsibility Rules
- Brexit will occur on 31 January 2020
- The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2020 will be the same or higher than September 2019
- James Shaw will have a leadership challenge but win
- Pete Buttigieg will win the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary
- Donald Trump will win re-election if the nominee is Warren or Sanders but lose to Biden or Buttigieg or Bloomberg
- Rebecca Long-Bailey will replace Jeremy Corbun as UK Labour Leader
- There won’t be a firm commitment to shift the Ports of Auckland to Northland, even though NZ First will pretend there is.
- Shane Jones will stand in Northland and lose.
- Jacinda Ardern will get married before the general election
- The Government will back the proposed NZME/Stuff merger to the Commerce Commission
- Parliament will not vote to restore voting rights to some prisoners before the 2020 election