December 13, 2019 7:00am by David Farrar

Final UK projections

The polls in the UK haven’t had a great track record in recent elections so it will be interesting to see if they have learnt from mistakes and get it right this time.

The focus of the last 48 hours has been on the NHS which might help Labour, so while most polls predict a conservative majority, it could well end up a hung parliament again.

The four projection models are:

  • FocalData Cons majority 24
  • YouGov Cons majority 28
  • Electoral Calculus Cons majority 46
  • Savanta Cons majority 30

The seat projections are:

  • Conservative 337 to 349
  • Labour 226 to 235
  • SNP 41 to 45
  • Lib Dems 11 to 15