November 30, 2019 3:00pm by David Farrar

Winston correct

The Herald reports:

New Zealand First has invoked the “Agree to Disagree” provisions of its Coalition agreement with the Labour Party for the first time, which will allow it to publicly oppose the announced 11.46 per cent increase in tobacco excise from January 1.
The increase will go ahead because it has been passed by regulation.
But New Zealand First leader and deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters said the increase “disproportionately gouges the poor”, was placing unnecessary pressure on the New Zealand Customs Service and was a threat to the safety of dairy owners.
The policy had reached the limits of its effectiveness, said Peters.
“Studies show that the automatic tobacco excise increases are having less effect on reducing smoking rates, most particularly amongst the target groups of Maori and Pasifika,” Peters said in a statement today. …
Customs interceptions of smuggled cigarettes at the border had increased by 352 per cent between 2015 and August 2019.

On the substance Peters is correct. The policy is no longer effective.

For many years it was effective. The tax increases did help lead to significant reductions in smoking. But I think it is beyond dispute that a tipping point has been reached where suddenly the major impact has been to fuel the black market with raids on dairies a weekly occurrence and a huge spike in smuggling.