Proposed 2020 boundaries

The Representation Commission announced:

The Representation Commission is proposing changes to half of New Zealand’s electorates and establishing a new electorate in south Auckland.

The Commission has released its report today on the proposed boundaries and names of electorates for the next two general elections. The public will now be able to have their say before the boundaries are finalised in April 2020.

“Where possible the current boundaries have been retained to minimise the number of people affected by electorate boundary and name changes. Of the 71 existing electorates, 36 are unchanged. The adjustments in other electorates reflect changes in population since 2014 when the boundaries were last reviewed,” says Representation Commission chair Judge Craig Thompson.

It looks like the Representation Commission has gone for minimal change, which is good. They have only made changes to seats where the population is over the 5% tolerance, which makes change mandatory. In previous boundary setting exercises they have sometimes also made changes to seats below the 5% tolerance as population projections are that they will get too large or small in future.

But as the census stuff up has delayed the results and hence the new boundaries, it is very good that they have been conservative with their changes because final boundaries will only be set in April 2020, possibly less than six months before the election. It will be confusing for those in affected areas to learn at such a late stage they are in a different seat to previously.

Here’s some of the more significant changes:

• A new seat of Flat Bush, drawing area from Hunua, Manurewa and Papakura. On paper a National seat as the blue Hunua and Papakura areas outweigh the red from Manurewa.
• The Waitakere Ranges going from Helensville to New Lynn makes New Lynn a National seat on paper. If the boundaries are confirmed, it will be a key seat.
• Banks Peninsula moving into Port Hills, and being renamed Banks Peninsula also on paper moves the seat from Labour to National. With Ruth Dyson retiring, this seat will be a potential pick up for National.
• The changes to Maungakiekie should make the seat safer for National and Denise Lee
• The changes to Wigram make it a marginal seat
• Dunedin South picks up some blue area from South Otago. Combione that with the retirement of Clare Curran, and again a potential pick up for National.

So overall National should be pretty happy with these proposed boundaries. On paper they win the new seat, and flip two Labour held seats plus two other Labour held seats become marginal and their marginal seat of Maungakiekie becomes safer.