Kirk on the year ahead

Stacey Kirk writes:

The Government could well be on a hiding to nothing here, made worse in part, by a deft political move from Bridges. 
Labour has promised tax reform, in particular a capital gains tax. It will be the centrepiece policy in a report from an expert working group the Government convened, in part to keep the recommendation of such a tax at arm’s length.
Labour wanted to be able to say, in effect, “it’s what the experts recommend”.

But it isn’t. There was no consensus from the actual experts. It is a majority decision pushed through by the politician appointed to chair it.

And in his opening salve, Bridges ran the ball straight up the guts and hit the Government where it hurts by committing to a policy of indexing income tax brackets to inflation. 

It’s widely accepted as good policy – the Government had the option of endorsing it or rubbishing it. Finance Minister Grant Robertson has chosen the latter, which will make for an interesting contortion should the tax  working group recommend it. Which it may well do, because it’s an inordinately fair tax policy. 

National will be campaigning on no longer taxing people more due to inflation. Labour will be campaigning on a platform of not just retaining the tax on inflation, but also wanting to tax you more if you have KiwiSaver, own a business, own a bach, own a lifestyle block or have parents who die.

Which one is fairer?

There’s no grey here, this has the potential to be disastrous for the Government if it cannot get on top of construction and start putting nails through wood. 
But Ardern is surely fuming that minister Phil Twyford made the admission when he did, that the Government didn’t have a hope in hell of reaching its first target – now abandoned. 
Overseas and unable to manage the fallout of Twyford’s verbal diarrhoea, Ardern was left to feebly refer only to the 10-year target of 100,000 houses – probably a moot point given failure is directly proportionate to the prospects of a second and third term. 

Maybe they’ll just cancel elections, so we don’t have any until 2029?