The China relationship

Audrey Young writes:

It wasn’t the fact that Jacinda Ardern did not seal a visit to China in her first year as Prime Minister that raises questions about the state of New Zealand’s relationship with the rising superpower.

It is the way she was treated by China, left dangling, not knowing through most of November whether or not the nod would come for an end-of-year visit.

A “no” would have sufficed, with a commitment to do it next year. A trip had been on the cards for October but she was understandably shuffled aside by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

That the New Zealand Prime Minister was left hanging for so long may well have been due to a misunderstanding.

But National leader Simon Bridges has seized on it as a snub and a sign of a deteriorating relationship.

And not without cause: almost everything China does is deliberate and that is the lens through which it sees others.

They left the PM hanging for months and months and then finally said no. Of course it was deliberate.

The new Government inherited a surprisingly good relationship with China, developed by National during complex times for both countries.

John Key managed to develop excellent personal relationships with both the US President and the Chinese President. And good relationships at the head of government level count for a lot.

HDPA also writes:

And, quite clearly, New Zealand is choosing the US over China. Don’t believe it? Look at what we’ve done in the last year — or even the last week.

So it looks like we’re taking instruction from the Trump White House. Nice. And it looks like we’re giving China the middle finger.

Quite unusual to have a Labour-led Government do this.

But, annoying China is a high-risk move. That country is our biggest trading partner. Two-way trade between the pair of us was worth $26 billion last year.

And we need them to like us. Our exporters especially need that. We’re trying to renegotiate a better FTA right now. How’s that going to work if we’re snubbing them?

Plus, is it worth it to cosy up to the US this much? That country is the worst fair-weather friend — it kicked us out of ANZUS, put us in the cold for decades and now won’t lift steel and aluminium tariffs even though it’s given Australia a break.

I think the issue is more complicated than just choosing sides.

For many years China was moving in the right direction – a more liberal economy and a more open society. They were still an authoritarian country but one heading in the right direction.

There seems to be growing evidence that this has halted and even reversed. The President now can serve for life, and they have become more repressive with internal dissent. So it is fair enough to have a more distant relationship with them until such time as they start heading in the right direction again.