Trump’s long game
A good analysis of Trump by a responder on Quora. The question was where did Trump’s rage against Obama come from, and the answer is there is no rage – it has all been tactics.
His analysis is as follows:
- Trump floats running for President in 1988 on Oprah Winfrey show
- He was then a New York liberal – secular, pro-choice and wants to renegotiate all trade deals
- In 1999 set up an exploratory committee for the Reform Party nomination. Ran as a centre-left populist who wanted to renegotiate all trade deals and set up universal health care. Suggested Oprah as his running mate.
- Trump in early 2000s was critical of George W Bush
- He never attacked or criticised Obama until late 2011
- Was at this stage a close mate of Bill Clinton – they attended the weddings of each other’s daughter
- Worked out in 2011 that Obama was likely to win re-election in 2012 and Clinton would be presumptive nominee for Democrats in 2016. Hence if he wants to become President, he needed to become a Republican
- To stand out from other Republicans he needed to become an Obama hating Republican and become a hero of the populist right
- In 2013 he cited his attack on Obama’s birth certificate as making him very popular
- Didn’t actually care about the birth certificate – was all a ploy to build up a support base
- Would have stood for the Democrats if there had been a path for victory through them, but there wasn’t as Clinton had it locked up.
- Filed a trademark on “Make American Great Again” the week after Obama was re-elected
- His tactics paid off – he has got to be President so he can achieved the one thing he has consistently advocated – renegotiating all US trade deals. Everything else he says and does is posturing to appeal to the base he has built up.
I thought it was quite a good analysis.