How caucus should vote on the leadership
Note this post is “how caucus should vote” not “who caucus should vote”.
It will be no surprise that I’m not endorsing any candidate. I actually know all five of them pretty well and think it is great National has such a pool of talent that they have five credible candidates to choose from. Imagine the chaos Labour would have if they lost their leader.
So this post is about what are the factors that MPs should be taking into account in making their decision.
The overwhelming factor of course is electability. Who has the greatest chance of winning an election and getting National into Government. The problem is that there is no magic way to divine that. So what you look at are the different elements that make both a party and leader electable.
Not all elements are equally important. And no one candidate is likely to be the best at all of them. So caucus members will be deciding which factors they think are most important.
- Communication skills. Can they do well on television. Can they handle a vigorous press conference or stand up. Can they not get flustered under pressure.
- House performance. Are they good in the House. Can they expose the weak Ministers.
- Prime Ministerial. Do they look and sound Prime Ministerial? Can voters see them as Prime Minister. Will voters want them as Prime Minister? Do they have a “back story” that appeals and interests New Zealanders.
- Economic credibility. National’s big strength is that voters think they are much better economic managers than Labour. Does the leader have business and economic credibility.
- Policy Knowledge. Are they able to get into enough policy detail that they can handle scrutiny of debates and interviews.
- Policy Direction. Are they going to push the party towards policies that both reflect the party’s principles but also are electable
- Caucus. Can they unite the caucus so that there are no stories about factions or splits.
- Party. Can they energise the party members, volunteers and activists. Can they build up membership.
- Speeches. Can they give great speeches that motivate and energise people.
- Fundraising. Parties rely on members and donors. Will the leader encourage members and donors to donate enough to fund strong campaigns
- Parliamentary staff. The leader employs 20 to 30 staff to support the entire parliamentary team. Will they attract and pick good people to work in what can be very important roles
- Excite the base. Will the leader excite the 45% who voted for National and give them a reason to keep voting National?
- Appeal to NZ First voters. Will the leader appeal to those voters who voted for Winston, never thinking he would put the Green Party into Government and now feel betrayed
- Work with other parties. Can the leader work with other parties to form a Government, should this be necessary.
- Political Judgement. Do they have good political instincts. Do they know what issues they should pursue and which they should not. Can they drive a political strategy to expose the Government’s shortcomings and promote a better alternative?