December 18, 2017 12:00pm by David Farrar

Scoring my 2017 predictions

In December 2016 I did my normal 20 predictions for the forthcoming year.  In 2016 I scored myself 14/20. How did 2017 go?

  1. Jacinda Ardern will be elected MP for Mt Albert in the by-election. 1/1
  2. No one from the 2014 National intake will be made a Minister before the election. 1/1
  3. The 2017 election will be at a later date (during the year) than the 2014 election/ 1/1 – was three days later!
  4. The second highest ranked male candidate on Labour’s list (excluding those in seats Labour is expected to win) will be Trevor Mallard. 0/1 – he was 5th highest.
  5. Winston Peters will poll higher than Andrew Little as Preferred PM in most polls in 2017. 1/1 – led in six out of seven while Little was leader.
  6. The 2016/17 year will end in a surplus of greater than $1 billion. 1/1 – OBEGAL surplus of $4.1b
  7. The official cash rate will rise in 2017. 0/1 – stayed constant.
  8. National will poll higher than Labour and Greens combined in at least 90% of public polls – 0/1 – were higher in 71% of public polls
  9. Shane Jones will stand for NZ First and be ranked in the top three on their list. 0.5/1 – stood but not top three
  10. Helen Clark will return to New Zealand to become Vice-Chancellor Auckland University. 0.5/1 – returned but not yet Auckland VC.
  11. John Key will be knighted in the 2017 Queens’ Birthday Honours. 1/1
  12. Steven Joyce’s first Budget will deliver tax cuts. 1/1 – sadly now cancelled.
  13. Labour will lose at least one of the six Maori seats they hold. 0/1. Actually picked up one.
  14. Labour and Greens will do a “dirty” (their former terminology) deal in Ohariu. 1/1 – they did a deal. Greens later reneged but there was a deal.
  15. NZ First will get more votes on election night than the Greens. 1/1
  16. US President Donald Trump will visit New Zealand. 0/1
  17. Malcolm Turnbull will be rolled by his own caucus in 2017. 0/1 – not yet
  18. The Greens will again declare more large donations than Labour in their annual return to the Electoral Commission. 1/1 – $609,000 to $110,000
  19. David Seymour’s euthanasia bill will be drawn from the ballot. 1/1
  20. Cameron Brewer will be selected as National’s Helensville candidate. 0/1
 Overall score is 12/20 – a pass.

 

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