538 on the Alabama polls

Nate Silver writes:

What we’re seeing in Alabama goes beyond the usual warnings about minding the margin of error, however. There’s a massive spread in results from poll to poll — with surveys on Monday morning showing everything from a 9-point lead for Moore to a 10-point advantage for Democrat Doug Jones — and they reflect two highly different approaches to polling.

That is a huge variation. Of course we saw similar in the last NZ election, except they did converge in the final week.

Most polls of the state have been made using automated scripts (these are sometimes also called IVR or “robopolls”). These polls have generally shown Moore ahead and closing strongly toward the end of the campaign, such as the Emerson College poll on Monday that showed Moore leading by 9 points. Recent automated polls from Trafalgar Group, JMC Analytics and Polling, Gravis Marketing and Strategy Research have also shown Moore with the lead.

But when traditional, live-caller polls have weighed in — although these polls have been few and far between — they’ve shown a much different result. A Monmouth University survey released on Monday showed a tied race. Fox News’s final poll of the race, also released on Monday, showed Jones ahead by 10 percentage points. 

Yes the Fox News poll has Moore 10% behind.

The voting closes at 2 pm NZDT. Results are likely to be known by 5 pm.

The Alabama race should not be close. Trump won the state by 30%. It last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976. If Jones win it is a huge upset.

If Moore wins, it helps Trump get his agenda through the Senate. However I doubt anyone will be rushing to be Moore’s benchmate.