Seats lost after nine years of Government

Claire Robinson writes:

Saturday’s final election results were, contrary to how they were received by some, a real blow for Labour. They didn’t pick up the number of special votes they hoped for.

They picked up one seat, as did the Greens. But this was no youthquake.

Ardern is arguing the results show a massive swing against National as National failed to get 50% of the votes or seats. Robinson points out:

In reality there has not been one election since MMP was introduced in 1996 where the ‘winning’ major party got over 50% of the party vote (see table below), and with only 36.9% of the party vote, it’s difficult for Labour to argue that they have more of a ‘mandate’ to form the next government than National on 44.4% in 2017. Moreover, at 44.4%, National’s party vote is greater than Labour’s Party Vote in 1999, 2002 and 2005 – three elections where Labour was more than happy to overlook the fact they didn’t have a majority yet still claim they had the ‘mandate’ to lead the next government.

Exactly. National’s vote is still higher than Labour’s vote has even been. And it is in a different league to when Governments have been clearly defeated such as 1999 and 2008. Then National got 30% and Labour got 34%.

Here’s an interesting thing to look at. If a Government has gone three terms, how many seats has it lost at the end of the third term to the beginning of the first. Here’s what they are:

1. National 1960 to 1969 from 46 to 45 = loss of 1
2. National 2008 to 2017 from 58 to 56 = loss of 2
3. Labour 1999 to 2008 from  49 to 43 = loss of 6
4. National 1949 to 1957 from 46 to 39 = loss of 7
5. Labour 1935 to 1946 from 53 to 45 = loss of 8
6. National 1975 to 1984 from 55 to 37 = loss of 18
7. National 1990 to 1999 from 67/97 to 39/120 = loss of 28

So National lost only two seats in nine years – a feat only bettered by National in 1969 when they got a 4th term.

Here’s another way to look at things. Here’s the percentage vote National and Labour have got under every MMP election.

1. 2011 National 47.3%
2. 2014 National 47.0%
3. 2008 National 44.9%
4. 2017 National 44.5%
5. 2002 Labour 41.3%
6. 2005 Labour 41.1%
7. 2005 National 39.1%
8. 1999 Labour 38.7%
9. 2017 Labour 36.9%
10. 2008 Labour 34.0%
11. 1996 National 33.9%
12. 1999 National 30.5%
13. 1996 Labour 28.2%
14. 2011 Labour 27.5%
15. 2014 Labour 25.1%
16. 2002 National 20.9%

Now of course it is MMP so governments are formed by who can get a majority of the seats. This is not about that. This is just about debunking that this was a bad result for National and a good result for Labour and represents some major vote against National.