How a National-Green coalition could work
I blogged last week on 10 major policy wins that I reckon the Greens could get, simply by abstaining on supply and confidence. That generated a lot of debate.
But the problem with a deal just on policy in exchange for confidence and supply is that once the policy concessions are made, then the smaller party feels there are no further gains for them. It is a one off set of policy wins, rather than something ongoing.
So this post is about what could National offer in terms of a full coalition with the Greens, yes a National-Greens Government (which is what is about to be formed in Germany).
First of all it would have to be an amazing deal for the Greens. 75% of their members would have to approve it. It would have to be dramatically better than anything they could get from NZ First. Of course they may only get offered something like Government spokesperson for recycling schemes so that isn’t a huge barrier.
The Greens campaigned on changing the Government so a National-Green Government would have to look dramatically different from the National Governments of the last three years.
So here’s what would work in my opinion.
James Shaw as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance
The coalition could only work if Shaw is Minister of Finance. If a National MP is Minister of Finance then the Greens would constantly be blaming him or her for not giving them enough money for their projects. The Government would not last.
But make Shaw Minister of Finance and he has to deal with all the spending priorities of Government – how much on health, on education, on transport, on housing etc etc.
Now you might worry that Shaw would just say yes to everything. But he can’t. The Greens campaigned on keeping spending to under 30% of GDP. Now I’d go a bit lower than that but I can live with 30% of GDP. So National and Greens agree to the spending cap of 30% of GDP (and the independent Fiscal Council to assess it is being met) and Shaw as Finance Minister delivers the Budgets in line with that. Huge investments in “green infrastructure” etc.
Julie-Anne Genter as Minister of Public Transport
Now JAG loves trains and National loves roads, so how could they possibly work together. It’s easy. You simply agree on a percentage split of the land transport fund (say 50/50) between road and rail. The National Minister of Transport spends his or her 50% on roading projects and JAG gets to spend her 50% on the rail projects the Greens thinks are most worthwhile. The Greens get to write the public transport blueprint for New Zealand!
Gareth Hughes as Minister of Communications
Gareth is well liked and respected in the Internet world and would be a popular choice.
Eugenie Sage as Minister of Conservation
She get’s DOC’s budget doubled and decides where to spend it. Also a veto over any commercial use of DOC estate. No more mining on conservation land. Can set up new national parks etc etc.
Marama Davidson as Minister of Maori Development
There’s a vacancy there with the departure of the Maori Party. Davidson gets to manage Whanau Ora and gives the Greens the ability to pick up more votes from Maori voters.
Golriz Ghahraman as the Chairperson of the Parliament Select Committee on Human Rights
Greens have long advocated for such a committee, and Ghahraman is ideal candidate to chair it with her background as a top human rights lawyer.
Now you might say giving five Ministerial portfolios (all within Cabinet) to a party that got just 6% of the vote is ridiculous and over the top. Yes it is an incredibly generous package, far far far more than they would ever get from NZ First or Labour. But it has to be in order for the Greens to vote for it. It has to be so attractive, that they would look bonkers turning it down.
This would be on top of policy wins such as:
- $1 billion over ten years for cycleways
- A levy on nitrate pollution
- A South Taranaki Whale Sanctuary
- A levy on plastic bags
- Accelerated timetable for rail to Auckland Airport
- Doubling the funding for DOC
- $65 million a year more for predator-free NZ
- Stricter water quality standards to increase the number of water bodies rated excellent from 42% to 70%.
- A commitment to double the reduction of children in poverty from 50,000 to 100,000
- Double the reduction target for greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 11% to 22%
Shaw as Minister of Finance would be writing the Budgets for the Government and having the major say on all Government spending. It would be a golden opportunity for the Greens to show they can be trusted with the economy, and enhance a brand that is currently massively tarnished by their implicit endorsement of welfare fraud.
So what would be a better deal for the Greens – something like what I have outlined above, or whatever Winston agrees to allow Labour to give them?
The other question is why would National think a deal like the above is preferable to an agreement with New Zealand First? Well quite simply the last three times Winston has been in Government has ended badly, so why would this time be any different? This option as least has the potential of working.
WInston has said he will refuse to negotiate with anyone at all until next week. That gives the Greens a clear week to negotiate and strike a deal. While Winston goes out fishing, they can remove him as kingmaker and crown themselves.