Could Winston sit on the crossbenches?

Stuff reports:

As coalition talks gear up there are fears Winston Peters may favour a more independent option, supporting neither party, that would leave National’s programme up in the air.

The NZ First leader has never ruled out “sitting on the cross benches”, and his comment that there are nine scenarios open to him suggest that is still a live option.

But he has also emphasised stability, which argues against him abstaining and in favour of a support deal.

He struck a support deal with Labour in 2005 that included ministerial posts, with foreign affairs for himself, despite eschewing the “baubles of office” on the campaign trail. 

As the parties wait for special votes to be returned on October 7 from the September 23 election, after which Peters has pledged to reveal his intentions by writ day on October 12, a “cross benches” arrangement by Peters would likely have only one outcome.

That would be a National minority government, since it has 58 seats to the Labour-Greens 52 in the 120 seat Parliament. While the 380,000 special votes may narrow the gap they are seen as unlikely to close it entirely.

The appeal of sitting on the cross benches is it is all power and no responsibility. You have the swing vote on every piece of legislation and you might bring the Government down at any stage, so they will come grovelling to you to ensure the Budget passes etc. But you have no formal agreement for policies or ministerial positions.

You see this in Canada where there is a convention the largest party is allowed to govern, even without a majority formally committed to it.

So in one sense this is a safe option for NZ First. They are not part of the Government, they are not responsible for anything the Government does, and hence won;t be blamed if the Government is unpopular.

The downside is none of the NZ First MPs get to be Ministers, and they don’t get a specific set of policy wins (but they will get to decide which laws get passed). Also the government is seen as unstable as the pin can be pulled at any time.

If NZ First decided to abstain then it would be a National minority Government. They would win votes in the House by 59 to 52 or 58 to 53. Even after specials the worst case would be 56 to 55 (if ACT was against).

But NZ First could sit on the cross benches but give provisional confidence and supply to a Labour-Greens Government. It could be done without abstaining.