September 22, 2017 12:00pm by David Farrar

Who might be an MP on the average of the polls

The Curia average of the public polls has the parties as:

  • National 43.3%, 54 seats
  • Labour 39.7%, 49 seats
  • Greens 6.6%, 8 seats
  • NZ First 6.5%, 8 seats
  • TOP 1.6%, 0 seats
  • Maori Party 1.0%, 2 seats (one overhang)
  • ACT 0.4%, 1 seat (one overhang)
  • United Future 0.1%, 0 seats

Now this average includes all the polls done by the main public pollsters during an election but time and size weights them. This means it includes the earlier One News Colmar Brunton polls that showed Labour leading.  The two final TV polls have 100% weighting, the ones from the week prior have 87% and 84%, the two before that 65% weighting and the two from the start of the campaign around 45% each. I’m not saying this weighted average will be accurate. It has been pretty accurate in the past, but the huge variability in the One News Colmar Brunton poll has impacted the average and has National lower than the final two TV polls this week.

So anyway who will be a Member of Parliament under this poll? First we need to decide on electorate seats. The only public polls showing a change are Ohariu going to Greg O’Connor and Te Tai Hauauru going to Howie Tamati from the Maori Party. I believe there will be mroe changes than that, but as I’ve done polling in a number of seats for a number of clients, I can’t be explicit about what they are. So the electorate seat assumptions are based on the public polls, and are not my private predictions.

So projected MPs (new ones in bold) are:

National

  1. Auckland Central: Nikki Kaye
  2. Bay of Plenty: Todd Muller
  3. Botany: Jami-Lee Ross
  4. Christchurch Central: Nicky Wagner
  5. Clutha Southland: Hamish Walker
  6. Coromandel: Scott Simpson
  7. East Coast: Anne Tolley
  8. East Coast Bays: Erica Stanford
  9. Hamilton East: David Bennett
  10. Hamilton West: Tim Macindoe
  11. Helensville: Chris Penk
  12. Hunua: Andrew Bayly
  13. Ilam: Gerry Brownlee
  14. Invercargill: Sarah Dowie
  15. Kaikoura: Stuart Smith
  16. Maungakiekie: Denise Lee
  17. Nelson: Nick Smith
  18. New Plymouth: Jonathan Young
  19. North Shore: Maggie Barry
  20. Northcote: Jonathan Coleman
  21. Otaki: Nathan Guy
  22. Pakuranga: Simeon Brown
  23. Papakura: Judith Collins
  24. Rangitata: Andrew Falloon
  25. Rangitikei: Ian McKelvie
  26. Rodney: Mark Mitchell
  27. Rotorua: Todd McClay
  28. Selwyn: Amy Adams
  29. Tamaki: Simon O’Connor
  30. Taranaki-King Country: Barbara Kuriger
  31. Taupo: Louise Upston
  32. Tauranga: Simon Bridges
  33. Tukituki : Lawrence Yule
  34. Waikato: Tim van de Molen
  35. Waimakariri: Matthew Doocey
  36. Wairarapa: Alastair Scott
  37. Upper Harbour: Paula Bennett
  38. Waitaki: Jacqui Dean
  39. Whanganui: Harete Hipango
  40. Whangarei: Shane Reti
  41. Bill English
  42. David Carter
  43. Steven Joyce
  44. Chris  Finlayson
  45. Michael Woodhouse
  46. Paul Goldsmith
  47. Alfred Ngaro
  48. Brett Hudson
  49. Melissa Lee
  50. Kanwal JK Bakshi
  51. Jian Yang
  52. Paramjit Parmar
  53. Jo Hayes
  54. Chris Bishop

Labour

  1. Christchurch East: Poto Williams
  2. Dunedin North: David Clark
  3. Dunedin South: Clare Curran
  4. Hauraki-Waikato: Nanaia Mahuta
  5. Hutt South: Virgina Andersen
  6. Ikaroa-Rawhiti: Meka Whaitiri
  7. Kelston: Carmel Sepuloni
  8. Mana: Kris Faafoi
  9. Mangere: Su’a William Sio
  10. Manukau East: Jenny Salesa
  11. Manurewa: Louisa Wall
  12. Mt Albert: Jacinda Ardern
  13. Mt Roskill: Michael Wood
  14. Napier: Stuart Nash
  15. New Lynn: Deborah Russell
  16. Ohariu: Greg O’Connor
  17. Palmerston North: Iain Lees-Galloway
  18. Port Hills: Ruth Dyson
  19. Rimutaka: Chris Hipkins
  20. Rongotai: Paul Eagle
  21. Tamaki Makaurau: Peene Henare
  22. Te Atatu: Phil Twyford
  23. Te Tai Tokerau: Kelvin Davis
  24. Te Tai Tonga: Rino Tirakatene
  25. Wellington Central: Grant Robertson
  26. West Coast Tasman: Damien O’Connor
  27. Wigram : Megan Woods
  28. Andrew Little
  29. David Parker
  30. Priyanca Radhakrishan
  31. Raymond Huo
  32. Jan Tinetti
  33. Willow-Jean Prime
  34. Kiri Allan
  35. Willie Jackson
  36. Jo Luxton
  37. Liz Craig
  38. Marja Lubeck
  39. Trevor Mallard
  40. Tamati Coffey
  41. Jamie Strange
  42. Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki
  43. Kieran McAnulty
  44. Angie Warren-Clark
  45. Helen White
  46. Steph Lewis
  47. Duncan Webb
  48. Sosene Lemauga Lydia
  49. Janette Walker

Greens

  1. James Shaw
  2. Marama Davidson
  3. Julie Anne Genter
  4. Eugenie Sage
  5. Gareth Hughes
  6. Jan Logie
  7. Chloe Swarbrick
  8. Golriz Ghahraman

NZ First

  1. Northland: Winston Peters
  2. Ron Mark
  3. Tracey Martin
  4. Fletcher Tabuteau
  5. Darrioch Ball
  6. Clayton Mitchell
  7. Mark Patterson
  8. Shane Jones

Maori Party

  1. Waiariki: Te Ururoa Flavell
  2. Te Tai Hauauru: Howie Tamati

ACT

  1. Epsom: David Seymour

I expect the final result to be a bit different to this, but on this projection there would be 35 new MPs in Parliament and one recycled one (Shane Jones).