What types of Government are possible
The decision NZ First has to make is not just between National and Labour/Greens but also what type of arrangement to have. Here’s some of the possibilities.
- Minority Government. No formal agreement with NZ First. They abstain or vote in favour of supply and confidence at first, but may pull the plug at any stage if they think the Government is doing a bad job. The Government would need to negotiate with them on every vote. We basically had this between 1993 and 1996.
- Supply and confidence. Government agrees to a number of NZ First policies in exchange for an agreement NZ First will vote in favour of the Government on confidence and supply motions. Had this from 2002 to 2005.
- Supply and confidence with benefits. Government agrees to a number of NZ First policies and one of more NZ First MPs become Ministers outside Cabinet in exchange for an agreement NZ First will vote in favour of the Government on confidence and supply motions. Had this from 2005 to 2008.
- Coalition. NZ First get several seats inside Cabinet and the coalition partners agree to a joint set of policies they will implement. Had this from 1996 to 1998.
Minority Government is unlikely as it means no stability for the Government. But having said that parties can walk away from agreements anyway, so the difference may not be huge. Only National could form a minority Government if NZ First abstained.
A supply and confidence agreement could be done with National or Labour. If NZ First doesn’t take up Ministerial positions, hard to see they would let the Greens do so. So it would be be a National Government with or a Labour Government. Labour would also need a supply and confidence agreement with the Greens which would have to be compatible with the NZ First one.
A supply and confidence agreement with benefits could be done with both NZ First and Greens with Labour. So Labour get 20 Ministers inside Cabinet and NZ First and the Greens each get three Ministers outside. Or Peters could shut the Greens out so they only do confidence and supply and no Ministers. On the National side it would be a simple National Ministers inside Cabinet and one or more NZ First Ministers outside Cabinet.
Finally the full coalition. You’d expect based on their vote share NZ First could take 3 or 4 Cabinet seats and maybe even 1 or 2 outside. So Peters, Jones, Mark and Martin could be inside Cabinet. A full coalition on the left could include the Greens who would also get say three Ministers inside Cabinet. So Labour might only get 13 or 14 slots inside Cabinet.
You could get a combination. Labour could do a full coalition with NZ First and a confidence and supply with benefits with the Greens. So NZ First Ministers inside Cabinet and Green Ministers outside Cabinet. Or Winston could lock Greens out entirely so Greens just get some policy wins and no portfolios. They have little leverage.
So it is not just about which side Winston goes for, but what sort of Government does he want. And if he goes with Labour, what role for the Greens?