New Zealand lucky with the choices we have
As advance voting ends today and the official election day is now just hours away, it is worth reflecting on how lucky we are with the choices we have in New Zealand.
Our choice of Prime Minister is Bill English or Jacinda Ardern. They’re both good people, and both have extraordinary talent (in different ways). Jacinda has revitalised Labour and taken it from the low 20s to the high 30s or even low 40s. An amazing impact. As I predicted in 2012, she will be Prime Minister of New Zealand one day – it is a matter of whether it is in a few weeks (once Winston decides) or a few years.
Bill English has had an extraordinary campaign. It has invigorated him and he has been commanding. The party is every bit as united behind him as it was under John Key. He looks very likely to lead National to a result in the mid 40s in their 4th election. No other party in MMP has got more than 41% in their 1st, 2nd or 3rd term, let alone a potential 4th. Labour in 2008 dropped to 34% and National in 1999 to 30%. Regardless of what Winston decides (if the decision is his), National is strong.
As I said both Jacinda and Bill are good people who care deeply for the country and improving outcomes for New Zealanders. We can forget that in the heat of a campaign. But it is a positive choice to have compared to many other countries. Recent choices have been:
- US – Trump or Clinton. Aaargh. Shoot me now.
- UK – Corbyn the commie or the Maybot!
- Australia – Turnbull or Shorten whom are both massively unpopular
Here’s the net approval ratings of the 10 heads of governments and oppositions in the Anglosphere:
- Jacinda Ardern +40%
- Bill English +39%
- Justin Trudeau +11%
- Michael Scheer +3%
- Jeremy Corby -1%
- Donald Trump -16%
- Malcolm Turnbull -20%
- Bill Shorten -20%
- Nancy Pelosi -20%
- Theresa May -25%
Again we are lucky to have such a good choice to make. Most other countries would love to have this choice.
So congratulations to both Bill and Jacinda, and good luck to whichever one of them is Prime Minister.
Some other kudos I want to hand out:
- Sir John Key – immaculate timing bowing out on top. He left National in a strong position and it is polling well despite his departure. He’s delighted with how well Bill has done, and there’s no one suggesting National would have fared better if he had stayed on. In fact if John had stayed on to attempt a 4th term, I think the vitriol would have been immense as the number of people with Key Derangement Syndrome is so high. It would have all been about stopping Key.
- Steven Joyce and Jo de Joux. This is their 5th campaign together. I doubt anyone who has not run a campaign understands the pressures of being a campaign manager. They never lost their nerve and kept National strong despite the media hype over Jacindamania. National got 45% when elected in 2008 and they are polling around that level in 2017. Simply amazing.
- Andrew Kirton – Labour looks to have finally got a focused and effective general manager who is trusted by all factions. Is secure in his role.
- James Shaw – has recovered from a horrendous month which would have crushed many as he looked like a political prisoner being forced to read out North Korean propoganda. He had to back his co-leader 110%, and see the party drop almost 10% in the polls. He’s stayed sane and thanks mainly to him looks like the Greens will survive.
- Gareth Morgan and Sean Plunket – thanks for constantly outraging the perputally outraged on Twitter. You’ve made life much more fun.
- Nicola Willis – a fantastic campaign in Wellington Central. I’ve never seen so many blue hoardings in this seat, and you’ve been everywhere. You’ll be a great MP and presence for National in Wellington if you make it in on the List.
- Matthew Hooton for being attacked online even more than Mike Hosking
- Jordan and the team at the Taxpayers Union for their great work in reminding people about who funds all the spending promises
- Metiria Turei for fighting to the last on what she believes. I strongly disagree with her, but one can seperate the person from the politician. Those who know and have worked for Metiria say she is a great boss and great fun person. Even though it is self inflicted, has been a hard campaign for her personally and I hope she does well outside politics.
- Patrick Gower for his extraordinary use of language in the call of duty. Patrick can make a milkshake sounds exciting and devastating
- Andrew Little for doing the right thing and putting his party ahead of personal ambition. Not many of his predecessors would have done the same.
Democracy shouldn’t be a privilege, but it effectively is for many people. If you haven’t already voted, make sure you do so tomorrow. The people are never wrong, even when they are!