How the pollsters did provisionally

Grumpolie has prepared this chart. Basically it shows the two TV polls were very accurate. The polls of polls and associated forecasts were less accurate. The Curia poll of polls (seperate to any internal polling I do) included the earlier Colmar Brunton polls showing Labour leading so I expected it to be out.

The Listener poll, Horizon poll, Roy Morgan poll and Newsroom polls were massively out. Newsroom was in a different universe. To be fair to them their polls were done earlier in the campaign, but to be blunt Labour were never 15% ahead of National and any poll saying they were had serious problems.

I’ll do an update on this after final results.