How does NZ First survive?
Stuff reports:
National may have had a shot at getting Winston Peters onside before the election – but blew it.
Its aggressive campaign to unseat Peters in Northland is causing some in NZ First to agitate for an Epsom style deal on the table in its negotiations with Labour and National.
That is seen as the best chance of preserving the party’s future if Peters, 72, steps down at the next election.
An electoral accommodation would mean National or Labour endorsing a NZ First candidate in a seat seen as winnable by the minor party. It is not clear which seat, or the extent to which Peters is backing such a deal.
But there would be good reason for Peters’ wider caucus to seek a deal like that in negotiations with either National or Labour because they know the party has little chance otherwise of surviving without Peters.
Losing Northland has been a blow to Peters, and if he does want to retire an electorate safety net is useful. If NZ First had got 15% then you’d be confident Shane Jones would keep them over 5%. But at 7.5% (may drop on specials) they have a small comfort margin.
But what seats could NZ First win if a major party did not stand and endorsed him? Presumably one where their party vote is higher. So what general seats did NZ First do best in, and which party holds them?
- Whangarei 14.5%, N
- Northland 13.6%, N
- Coromandel 12.4%, N
- Tauranga 11.8%, N
- Bay of Plenty 11.2%, N
- Rangitikei 10.5%, N
- Wairarapa 10.5%, N
- Waikato 10.3%, N
- Whanganui 10.2%, N
- Rotorua 10.2%, N
- East Coast 10.1%, N
- West Coast-Tasman 9.6%, L
So all 11 seats where NZ First got over 10% are National held seats.
In fact 22 of the best 23 seats for NZ First are National held seats.
This will also make it very interesting for them if they decide to support a Labour-led Government. I’m not sure all those provincial and rural voters that voted NZ First will be keen on the inevitable political correctness and anti-agriculture policies that will eventuate from such a Government. I’d say there would be a huge backlash.
This is why I’m quite keen to have Winston go with Labour and Greens. It will be sad for the country, but good for National in the long term as they’d ride a wave of discontent in 2020 and only need to pick up two more seats to govern.