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February 28, 2017 3:00pm by David Farrar

Latest poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is at Curia.

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GazzaW

48% support for National. Bill English can be very heartened with that figure. I doubt Little and Peters will share his sentiments on 26% and 9% respectively. There’s a way to go and a lot of murky water yet to flow under the bridge (as Little will be anxious to point out) but 48% is an infinitely better place to be than 26% especially when your Coalition partner can only muster 15%. The Labour caucus will be getting mighty anxious about their future employment prospects as should Andrew Little.
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February 28, 2017 3:15pm
- Monty
  
  Anothe rogue poll. But explanation is simple. Angry came back from holiday, opened his mouth and there was a corresponding drop in the polls
  
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  February 28, 2017 9:00pm
- RRM
  
  🙂 Smile
  
  Grown-up parties can govern alone.
  
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  March 1, 2017 6:48am
stephen2d

Well, if it is the same situation next month, I suspect there will be movement to replace Angry and Moonshine by maybe not Gracinda, but by Jacrant (not sure if he would like it that way, so more backstabbing is on the cards).
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February 28, 2017 3:18pm
- GazzaW
  
  It’s now less than six months to the election. It’s getting late in the day to make an effective leadership change but it must be getting increasingly obvious to the caucus that Little is incapable of leading them to victory. Add to that the stupid decision to ally themselves to the Greens.
  
  The only question in my mind is whether National will be able to govern alone but at this stage it’s an emphatic double tick for blue for me.
  
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  February 28, 2017 3:33pm
- cmm
  
  Naah, next month they would just say “let’s see what it looks like next month”.
  
  If they’re going to have a leadership race, the time to have it was two months ago. Otherwise: now.
  
  If they do have one, MSM is rooting for Jacinda and if they didn’t serve her up the MSM would put in the boot.
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:01pm
thedavincimode

Now, what’s happened here … ? Of course, English hasn’t done anything stupid and in fact has been sensible, and neville little has continued to make a complete cock of himself. Best that nev perhaps takes a two month holiday and disappears. Ought to help him in the polls.
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February 28, 2017 3:21pm
Kimbo

National 48.0% (+2.0%)

Hmm. Must check out ~~Whale Oil~~ Likud’s New Zealand press office for an explanation why the free-fall in support due to Murray McCully’s UNSC2334 has been reversed 😉
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February 28, 2017 3:24pm
- Tarquin North
  
  I’m as shocked as you are. According to W.O that and failing to elect crusher should have been enough to sink the ship.
  
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  February 28, 2017 4:45pm
  - Biscuit
    
    Tarquin, Whale Oil is a parody of his former self…
    
    Can’t you just imagine him and his Spanish Bride whining ‘No matter what we do, no matter what we say’ as they partake of their beverages of choice…
    
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    February 28, 2017 9:35pm
- Happychappy
  
  Where is Chuck wasn’t he saying when the Pike River Mine Protesters had seen the Prime Minister at Parliament and some of the punters from this site said they have had a gutsful of Bernie Monk and his fellow followers that he could not wait to see the polls over the next couple of months. Well Chuck they are looking pretty impressive for the new PM. Winston would be a little disappointed and Andrew should be gutted.
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:01pm
  - Chuck Bird
    
    Happychappy, I beleive English is a decent person. I am not impressed by anonymous bloggers who attacks someone who want to attack someone who wants justice for their loved one be it Pike River or the Chch building collapse or a victim kill by some who should not have been on bail or parole. You think they should move on I think you should grow a pair and use your own name for personal attacks.
    
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    February 28, 2017 8:01pm
    - Happychappy
      
      Chuck this is not a personal attack like you do at least once a week on this blog about John Key. If you want to attack others by calling them liars, coward’s and a list of other names expect to be taken to task and don’t make the comment. As the saying goes if you stand the heat get out of the kitchen.
      
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      March 1, 2017 6:31am
- Ambergris
  
  Hey you took the words right out of my mouth! Of course it’s only Roy Morgan so we will have to see but it’s good news all the same.
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:43pm
  - Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
    
    And correct me if I am wrong, Rogue Morgan normally understates Nats and overstates Labour ?
    
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    February 28, 2017 7:52pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  The Israel blog won’t be happy with this result…..
  
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  February 28, 2017 8:48pm
Captain Mainwaring

Those rogue polls keep on coming for Angry Andy.
National has not only survived the Key resignation but shows every sign of bouncing back to levels of popularity that even Key didn’t have.
Much gnashing of teeth must be going on in the Labour caucus room.
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February 28, 2017 3:28pm
Brigitte

No, it’s a rogue result. You see, two days after the polling, Blinglish said something stupid, or silly (or something anyhows) that will plummet the Nats like a Led Zeppelin (or perhaps even like a New Yardbirds).
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February 28, 2017 3:29pm
- s.russell
  
  Yes, I remember that. Bill tied a shoelace. Shocking! Proves he is unfit to eat dogturds etc. But the polls have yet to reflect Shoelacegate.
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:59pm
tknorriss

Based on that poll it looks like a seamless transition between Key and English.

The numbers also suggest Labour is going to struggle to convince voters that they are not going to be under the complete control of the loony left given the influence of their own hard left faction combined with the Greens who will make up 30% of their caucus on those numbers.
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February 28, 2017 3:31pm
dime

housing cited as the biggest issue.

National needs to be seen to be doing something major.

i suspect labour will dangle some garbage “$20,000 for first home buyers” or some such. some people will fall for it “for the kids” the people eligible will be all over it… people like Dime will say – get stuffed!
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February 28, 2017 3:41pm
Manolo

The tolerance of the Left. The poll results as perceived by the delicate Lynn Prentice:

Latest Roy Morgan is out:

[deleted]

[lprent: Ah another dickhead troll. Quotes without clearly showing that it is a quote, and does it without a link so I deleted the unattributed quote (it is in the link I provided).

If there is a dedicated post depends on an author thinking that it is of interest. We generally don’t waste that many posts to polls. Usually every few months.

But we don’t take kindly to people trying to tell us what we should write about. In fact it is in the policy as a self-martyrdom offense. So what to do… Oh I know ?

Banned for 6 weeks – which is roughly when I figure an authors is likely to put up a post on a poll. You should have enough patience for that right? ]
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February 28, 2017 3:46pm
- alex Masterley
  
  He is a delicate little flower.
  
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  February 28, 2017 4:00pm
  - Keeping Stock
    
    What do you expect? The World’s Greatest Sys-Op is a bit like Johnny Cash’s “Sue”, a boy with a girl’s name.
    
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    February 28, 2017 6:17pm
    - Inandout
      
      Is it short for Lynette?
      
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      February 28, 2017 6:36pm
- Rich Prick
  
  I just had to go and have a peek. That was posted in their “Open Mike” thread which I assume is a little like a general debate. 26% is clearly giving butt-hurt that no amount of hemorrhoid cream will ease.
  
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  February 28, 2017 4:23pm
  - alex Masterley
    
    Thanks for taking one for the team RP.
    The 26 number will be causing more than a few to have cold sweats.
    For example why would you risk a partnership in a law firm making twice as much money as an MP for six months max?
    
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    February 28, 2017 5:06pm
    - Rich Prick
      
      Trust me, I had to wipe my feet on the way out. And you make a good point in respect of recruiting *cough* talent.
      
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      February 28, 2017 7:09pm
  - mandk
    
    They must be really down in the dumps over there.
    
    Open Mike has had only 35 comments since 6.00 am.
    
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    February 28, 2017 5:51pm
- RF
  
  Prentice is a buffoon.
  
  One of those key board warriors that types tough but runs like hell when confronted in the flesh of which he has a lot of.
  
  One thing he is easily fooled as there are a few wolves in sheep clothing on the Standard quietly nibbling away.
  
  Ha ha…
  
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  February 28, 2017 4:33pm
- dime
  
  lol can you imagine what a sad little freak that thing is in real life?
  
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  February 28, 2017 4:35pm
  - infused
    
    He’s been on some shows. He comes across as an arrogant dickhead.
    
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    February 28, 2017 6:43pm
    - James Stephenson
      
      Exactly as he comes across online then.
      
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      March 1, 2017 8:26am
- infused
  
  Hah, he’s a fuckwit of the highest order.
  
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  February 28, 2017 6:42pm
davidp

I think we tend to fetishise politicians and treat them as celebrities. I quite like the idea that Bill English is quietly managing government without drama or the need to be in the news all the time.
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February 28, 2017 4:06pm
- GazzaW
  
  It surprises me how many of Bill’s critics hark back to his failure in the 2002 election. They need to look back on their own lives over that period and figure out whether they have learned anything over the ensuing fifteen years and developed their leadership skills. He has not tried to emulate John Key, he’s very much his own man and I believe will have an even better rapport than JK with Waitakere Man and the rural voters.
  
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  February 28, 2017 4:42pm
  - cmm
    
    I know what you mean.
    
    Back in 2002 I was a bit conceited. Now I’m perfect.
    
    All jokes aside, Bill has had 15 years to grow. He has experienced a lot. He was really the person who drove The Good Ship NZ through the troubled waters of GFC and EQs.
    
    JK was valuable in breaking the stereotype that the system is rigged against people not born with a silver spoon in their mouth, but once a bloke has a few $M in his back pocket and goes golfing with Obama I think he started to lose some of the common touch.
    
    Bill is much more your regular Kiwi joker than JK ever was. Waitakere Man and rural are warming to him. Business people respect him.
    
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    February 28, 2017 5:09pm
    - Chuck Bird
      
      I gave you an uptick.
      
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      February 28, 2017 5:15pm
      - Keeping Stock
        
        The most important thing about English is that, thus far, he doesn’t seem to be showing any indications of being anyone other than Bill English.
        
        He’s never going to be a great orator, but as he showed during the GFC he is a man for a crisis, and a man with a terrific grasp of detail. He is a far different politician from English c2002, and it shows.
        
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        February 28, 2017 6:20pm
      - cmm
        
        KS: Good point. I think 2002 he tried to be something he was not and the fakeness showed through. Now he’s more confident and comfortable in his own skin and just being himself.
        
        The politicians love a good orator and someone quick with the wit and sledging of the debating chamber. But that’s just theatre – it gets nothing done.
        
        The political pundits like DPF seem to love that too.
        
        But the average Kiwi just wants someone who shows up and gets the job done with as little fuss as possible.
        
        If I want great Shakespearian speeches I go to the theatre. I don’t want MPs doing them while discussing important issues at the cost of millions of dollars an hour any more than I want the plumber to break into “To be or not to be” while fixing a leaking pipe.
        
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        February 28, 2017 7:04pm
    - Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
      
      I cant even remember what Bill was like in 2002. I have heard him speak a few times over the last few years and have been mightily impressed. He is a calm and considered thinker…..
      
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      February 28, 2017 7:58pm
    - RRM
      
      JK was a game-changer for National when they needed one the most. When they were as down and out as Labour are today. Someone new, hopeful, and not mired by recent failures.
      
      Labour 2017 desperately need to find their JK.
      
      IMHO Sir Peter Leitch would be a great Labour party leader. I doubt he’d want it though… and their great failure is that they probably wouldn’t want him.
      
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      March 1, 2017 7:33am
Adolf Fiinkensein

Conventional ignorance blames Labour’s current plight on Helen Clark. She’s been long gone and the real culprit today is the unions which have inflicted a parade of hopeless nonentities and nobodies on the party.

Who can remember the day when labour was replete with people of intelligence AND ability?

David Lange, Roger Douglas, Michael Bassett, Geoffrey Palmer, (Yes, he was an idiot with intelligence and ability but no common sense.) Michael Moore, Michael Cullen, Peter Tapsell, David Caygill and not to mention the inimitable Parekura Horomia who, if cast ashore on a desert island at 0800, by 1200 could be relied upon to have found a dozen meat pies.

All of these were memorable people. Today’s Labour lineup is totally forgettable.
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February 28, 2017 4:27pm
- cmm
  
  Helen crushed anyone around her that was not a yesman/woman. She did not want or tolerate intelligeent people around her.
  
  Nett result: She leaves and it’s a wasteland.
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:11pm
  - Adolf Fiinkensein
    
    She left nearly ten years ago.
    
    It didn’t take that long for Churchill to recover from Dunkirk.
    
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    February 28, 2017 5:37pm
    - cmm
      
      Churchill could recover, but none of the current Labour crop are a hair on Churchill’s nutsack.
      
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      February 28, 2017 7:05pm
  - s.russell
    
    Yes, Labour is a talent-less wasteland. But that is not because Clark went out to crush the talented. It is rather because the whole party developed a culture of rejecting intelligence and talent as signs of evil non_leftist tendencies. Clark’s ascendancy was more a symptom of that trend than a cause. I think she tried to encourage talent, but the pool was already thin then and is now near non-existant.
    
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    February 28, 2017 6:09pm
- Souvlaki
  
  Shit…..one of the BEST comments I have read in ages! I believe it is related to IQ. All of those names you reeled off were smart as well as having a personality( with the exception perhaps of Palmer) ….sadly lacking in most representatives these days. I would have added Richard Prebble to your list however Adolf .
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:56pm
  - Adolf Fiinkensein
    
    Absolutely right. How remiss!!! I knew all the while there was an important name missing.
    
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    February 28, 2017 6:10pm
    - Monty
      
      And the wonderful Trevor de Cleene (rip)
      
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      February 28, 2017 10:56pm
- RRM
  
  Don’t forget Labour has Clint now. So they will be all good.
  
  Hey Clint – are we worried about how well the government is polling?
  
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  March 1, 2017 7:05am
Fisiani

The Left are annoyed that Labour have slumped to a mere 26%. Imagine how they will feel when they are 19 %. You can have a strong centrist competent government or a a motley crew of losers. What option would a new migrant pick. The party that grew the economy that enticed them to come or the business hating nihilistic tree huggers.
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February 28, 2017 4:41pm
- alwyn
  
  What are you doing over here on KiwiBlog?
  I thought you would have been offering calm, consoling words to the unhappy souls over there on The Standard. Cheer them up a bit by helping them understand that it is merely a rogue poll.
  Or have you been banned as well?
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:48pm
cmm

Ouch.

Bill gave Andy a real crutching!

Won’t be making any more stupid Souther Farmer/Speights Drinker jokes will ya mate!
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February 28, 2017 4:45pm
Warren Murray

As Roy Morgan results seem to fluctuate each month, I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Taking an average of the past two RM polls (at least), would give a more reliable measure.
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February 28, 2017 5:06pm
- Captain Mainwaring
  
  OK Warren, here’s your answer.
  Average of last 5 Morgan polls (including this one):
  
  National 47.4%
  Labour 26.4%
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:20pm
  - Adolf Fiinkensein
    
    Ho Ho Ho
    
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    February 28, 2017 5:38pm
  - Warren Murray
    
    Better than I realised. Thanks.
    
    I think when you do the comparison, you need to look at the combined Labour-Green vote.
    
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    February 28, 2017 10:44pm
- Paulus Gnome
  
  Not forgetting that labour’s internal polling will show national at 38% and labour at 107%
  
  Statistics, statistics, damn lies and the labour party internal poll!
  
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  February 28, 2017 5:22pm
Happychappy

Andrew Little played the game of word with weak Leader and all the functions he fronted he kept up that Bill English is weak and not suitable for Prime Minister and it looks like it come back to haunt him after his weak handling of the Willie Jackson affair.
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February 28, 2017 5:24pm
MCos

What I find quite tiresome is the rather juvenile prevalence of people on social media to fiddle around with politicians names in lieu of serious argument.
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February 28, 2017 5:31pm
- GazzaW
  
  You mean like Bingles as one of our lefty resident trolls is wont to use over and over and over and over again?
  
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  February 28, 2017 7:40pm
waikatogirl

Fun is where you find it MCos. ?

Great result Bill. Keep the country on an even keel.
We’ve got a stockpile of popcorn on hand for the fun running up to September!
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February 28, 2017 5:53pm
- MCos
  
  “Fun is where you find it MCos.”
  Cheap thrills for the smart arse . . . . . .
  
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  February 28, 2017 6:22pm
SPC

“Coalition Options

•CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
•CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
•C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would govern with ACT and United Future.”

Er no – National would choose to continue with current practice and include MP once again. This reduces the leverage of ACT and United (parties under their patronage after all) to where National wants to co-operate with them.
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February 28, 2017 7:09pm
- cmm
  
  I am sure they would include Maori even if they did not have to.
  
  As you say, it prevents any one coalition partner from playing kingmaker. It also keeps Maori – the major agitating force – somewhat onside.
  
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  March 1, 2017 7:54am
axeman

Where is (former) Deputy Speaker Rick Barker to give us his erudite left wing point of view? Seems Mr ztev is still getting his talking points from #HeyClint and that guy who invented the Chinky surnames survey.
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February 28, 2017 8:30pm
burt

Other than the obvious answer of ‘too many’ – How many list MPs would labour get on that 26% support ? 5?

Who’s that going to get in – Angry, Jackson, Harre – who else ?
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February 28, 2017 9:26pm
- sparkhole
  
  At a guess I would add David Parker (if he stays) and Sue Moroney although I’d rather hope Annette King still stays high on the list even if she isn’t deputy.
  
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  February 28, 2017 9:45pm
Captain Mainwaring

Of more interest is how many do they get on 21%. Answer = zero, and Angry’s history.
But if they score below that the number of seats they might get will give them an overhang.
That would not be good.
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February 28, 2017 9:44pm

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