2016 Predictions Test – John Stringer
Ok so in late 2016 David Farrar and I posted 20 predictions for 2016 on our respective blogs: Here are mine(with updates) See what I scored:
“It’s hardly fair to stand on the sidelines arms folded and tut tut (to quote Teddy Roosevelt) David Farrar’s 20 Predictions and not plunge in to the fray myself”
So here’s my “20/20” for 2016
1 Helen Clark will apply but fail to become UN supremo which will go to an eastern European
~ Helen did apply and failed but the successful nominee was from Portugal not eastern Europe [2 out 3 call it 1pt: 1/20]
2 I will do better than DPF’s 2015 11/20 ~ [17/20: 1 pt: 2/20]
3 David Seymour will drop the ball in a political faux pas
~ not really’ he was just quiet [0 pt: 2/20]
4 Colin Craig will lose or settle or conceal at least four court case outcomes:
i) Craig mediated his sexual harassment hearing and paid rachel MacGrgeor about $36;000
ii) He then violated the confidentiality 12 times and had to pay her historic six-figure damages
iii) He lost to Jordan Williams and had to pay historic damages ($1:27 mill plus costs approx 1:1 mill)
iv) He had his copyright case against WOil and Williams struck out and had costs awarded against him
v) He covered up i) and ii) assiduously but suppression and non-publication orders were lifted by the Judge in the Williams trial [4/4: 1 pt: 3/20]
5 The Conservative party will not rise above 2% ~ Never did [1 pt: 4/20]
6 An ex-NZ prime minister will pass away
~ Well John Key resigned so perhaps 1/2 pt? [4.5/20]
7 The Flag referendum will fail and the current flag will be retained
~ tick [1 pt: 5.5/20]
8 There will be a nasty domestic child murder who will be Maori
~ Not in 2016 so that is good [0 pt: 5.5/20]
9 There will be more than three serious ISIS/Islamic attacks causing death in major European cities including Berlin and London
~ During this time period, there were 2453 Islamic attacks in 59 countries, in which 21150 people were killed and 26499 injured.
i) 2016 Berlin attack. A terrorist attack on 19 December 2016, during which a truck was driven into the Christmas market
ii) 2016 Knifing in London; and a bomb set on the Jubilee line train (foiled) \
[1 pt: 6.5/20]
10 There will be a serious Islamic terrorist attack causing death in America at some large public event that Barack Obama will not admit is “Islamic” or “terrorism”
~ 2016.06.13 USA Orlando, FL An Islamic extremist massacres 49 people at a gay nightclub. [1 pt: 7.5/20]
11 The Turks and Russians will skirmish but avoid all-out war
~ A Turkish police officer murdered the Russian ambassdor to Turkey [1 pt: 8.5/20]
12 Israel will be blamed by the International community for Palestinian backwardness and the rest of the neglect of the Middle East by the grotesquely wealthy Arab nations while meanwhile accepting thousands of refugees in to tiny Israel housing educating and feeding them
~ December: NZ-co-sponsords UN resoution to stop Israeli settlement [1 pt: 9.5/20]
13 Fascism and extreme right political expressions will rear in Europe
~ Rise of Le Penn in FRnace and a rightwing Prez for Austria; anti-Islam Party for Freedom in Holland; Golden Dawn in Greece etc [1 pt: 10.5/20]
14 Mosques will be attacked in America Europe and Australia
~ America: Florida mosque set on fire
~ Europe: Dresden mosque bombed
~ Aust: perth mosque fire bombed [1 pt: 11.5/20]]
15 There will be a significant event in astronomy/space science
~ November: Moon comes closest to earth in our lifetime; China annunces Mars probes [1 pt: 12.5/20]
16 There will be a scare in viral pandemic health like Ebola or Bird Flu
~ August: Zika virus spreads to Florida [1 pt: 13.5/20]
17 The Nigerian kidnapped girls will still not be found
~ October: Got this wrong; 21 of them were actually released back to their families after Red Cross negotiaed with Boko Haram for their return [0 pt: 13.5/20]
18 A major celebrity will drug overdose or commit suicide
~ April: Prince; George Michael (heart attack or drugs? He was 53; not sure yet)
[1 pt: 15/20]
19 Iran will open up and detente with the international community will improve
~ Obama gave them trillions in cash and Kerry secured the nuclear deal [1 pt: 16/20]
20 There will be a 8+ scale earthquake on the Pacific Rim
~ Japan; NZ; South America; etc etc etc [1 pt: 17/20]