December 19, 2016 4:00pm by David Farrar

Scoring my 2016 predictions

How did my semi-serious 2016 projections go. It’s scoring time. They were:

  1. There will be a by-election in 2016 – Mt Roskill 1/1
  2. There will be a change to the composition of the Key Ministry in 2016 – Key left!! 1/1
  3. A List MP will leave Parliament in 2016 – Kevin Hague 1/1
  4. We will have a new Speaker during the year – no change 0/1
  5. Jacinda Ardern will poll within 2% of Andrew Little as Preferred PM – nope only got within 5% 0/1
  6. The 2015/16 year will also end in surplus – yep 1/1
  7. The official cash rate will not rise in 2016 – only fell 1/1
  8. National will poll higher than Labour and Greens combined in at least 80% of public polls – polled higher in all five Colmar Bruntons, 10/11 Roy Morgans and both TV3 polls so 17/18 polls – 1/1
  9. The current flag will win in the second referendum – easily 1/1
  10. David Shearer will be appointed the Government’s Special Envoy for the Middle East – 0.5/1 – ended up UN envoy for South Sudan
  11. Phil Goff will not be elected Mayor of Auckland – so wrong 0/1
  12. Lianne Dalziel will be re-elected Mayor of Christchurch – so right 1/1
  13. A registered political party will deregister during the year – Focus NZ in February 1/1
  14. Celia Wade-Brown will  not be re-elected Mayor of Wellington – spot on 1/1
  15. NZ First will poll higher than the Greens in at least one public poll – ONCB Feb 16 – 1/1
  16. John Key will host two of the five permanent members (their heads of governments) of the Security Council in NZ in 2016 – only had one – France – 0.5/1
  17. One or more Labour Maori MPs will break ranks with Labour on a major policy or issue – did any of them except Kelvin say anything this year? 0/1
  18. The Greens will declare more large donations than Labour in their annual return to the Electoral Commission – easy win $237,000 to Greens and $0 to Labour – 1/1
  19. Unemployment will drop back below 6% – now 4.9% – 1/1
  20. The NZ Herald will publish more stories about Max Key than about the Maori Party, ACT Party and United Future combined – Max Key 135, Maori Party 263, ACT 139, UF 81 – so 0/1 but still an unbelievably high amount on Max

So I award myself 14/20. NCEA Exceeded!