Predictions for 2017
Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2017:
- Jacinda Ardern will be elected MP for Mt Albert in the by-election
- No one from the 2014 National intake will be made a Minister before the election
- The 2017 election will be at a later date (during the year) than the 2014 election
- The second highest ranked male candidate on Labour’s list (excluding those in seats Labour is expected to win) will be Trevor Mallard
- Winston Peters will poll higher than Andrew Little as Preferred PM in most polls in 2017
- The 2016/17 year will end in a surplus of greater than $1 billion
- The official cash rate will rise in 2017
- National will poll higher than Labour and Greens combined in at least 90% of public polls
- Shane Jones will stand for NZ First and be ranked in the top three on their list
- Helen Clark will return to New Zealand to become Vice-Chancellor Auckland University
- John Key will be knighted in the 2017 Queens’ Birthday Honours
- Steven Joyce’s first Budget will deliver tax cuts
- Labour will lose at least one of the six Maori seats they hold
- Labour and Greens will do a “dirty” (their former terminology) deal in Ohariu
- NZ First will get more votes on election night than the Greens
- US President Donald Trump will visit New Zealand
- Malcolm Turnbull will be rolled by his own caucus in 2017
- The Greens will again declare more large donations than Labour in their annual return to the Electoral Commission
- David Seymour’s euthanasia bill will be drawn from the ballot
- Cameron Brewer will be selected as National’s Helensville candidate