Trump now at 30% to win

538’s polls plus model now has Trump at 30% to win.

He has now taken the lead in Florida by 0.4%. Clinton leads in states with 294 electoral college votes and Trump 244. He needs to pick up 26 more votes.

The closest states are:

• Maine 2nd District 0.1% (1)
• North Carolina 0.2% (15)
• Nevada 0.9% (6)
• Colorado 3.8% (9)

If he does not win Colorado but picks up the others it would be 272 to 266 to Clinton.

Other states he is less than 5% behind are:

• New Hampshire 4.2% (4)
• Pennsylvania 4.3% (20)
• Michigan 4.4% (16)
• Wisconsin 4.7% (10)