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October 25, 2016 1:00pm by David Farrar

WCC Mayoral Results

A reader has done a full analysis of the Mayoral results, and kindly sent it to me.

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Comment9

NZ Politics
WCC

Comments (9)

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ztev

Ist strange that the Council itself doesnt give a simple breakdown like this. To show how the STV voting works.
http://wellington.govt.nz/your-council/elections/elections-2016/results/mayor
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October 25, 2016 2:49pm
- Enkidu
  
  Like not at all? As the calculations were performed, no changes in the order of the candidates occurred.
  
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  October 25, 2016 8:55pm
Steve Todd

It’s rather astonishing to see that, between the first and seventh iterations (after the transfer of 24,773 votes), Lester’s initial lead over Leggett increased by just one vote – from 7,223 to 7,224.
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October 25, 2016 5:04pm
- ztev
  
  Only because the last iteration gave him 6K extra votes to Lesters 4.2K.
  
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  October 25, 2016 5:59pm
- Enkidu
  
  Nothing increased, nothing decreased. The votes were all done and dusted prior to the count. The calculations don’t actually change anything.
  
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  October 25, 2016 8:53pm
Enkidu

So, all that STV rubbish made no difference at all to the final result and candidates were dumped out in the order of the original first place votes! We might as well have voted using FPP.
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October 25, 2016 8:50pm
- Steve Todd
  
  Enkidu, when people vote in STV / PV (single-seat STV) elections, they rank the candidates in their true order of preference, because they know their later preferences cannot harm their earlier preferences.
  
  That being the case, it stands to reason that the leading candidates at the first iteration will almost always be the most-preferred candidates in the election (sometimes with exceptions that become apparent as any particular count unfolds).
  
  But the system only works if the votes given for the lesser-supported candidates are actually transferred.
  
  People who argue that repeated counts and transfers are unnecessary, overlook the fact that the purpose of second and later preferences is to correct the distortions that arise from allowing only first preferences to be cast (particularly in *single-seat* FPP elections), thereby ensuring the correct candidate, or candidates (in the collective opinion of those voting), is / are chosen.
  
  Also, with single-seat STV, the split vote, whereby, in FPP elections, electoral support for candidates A1 and A2 is divided, allowing candidate B to win, is completely eliminated.
  
  I suspect you are not aware that Mike Tana came from behind to win the Porirua mayoralty (in the same way Celia Wade-Brown did in Wellington in 2010). He started off 309 votes behind Euon Murrell, received more votes than Murrell through each of the next four iterations, to slip past him at iteration 5, to win by 164 votes. With STV, we now know that Murrell would have been the wrong winner had the election been held by FPP.
  
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  October 26, 2016 9:06am
  - Warren Murray
    
    Thanks Steve.
    
    I’m not a fan of STV, but knowing it helped unseat Murrell could change my view.
    
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    October 26, 2016 9:54am
  - Enkidu
    
    In Wellington it had absolutely no effect and was therefore useless, as it is in most cases. So far as I can see there were no “distortions” which were corrected in Wellington, as everyone voted logically. FPP would have produced the correct result.
    
    In Porirua, if it had been a FPP election, everyone would have voted logically and Tana would have won, just as he did under STV. The “distortions” that you see are *caused* by STV.
    
    And no one “came from behind”. All the votes are made before counting starts and nothing can change the results. That’s the same stupid fiction that keeps idiots glued to the screen on election days where it is breathless announced that so-and-so is “catching up” or “has taken the lead” as the votes are counted, just as if it were a damn horse race! It isn’t the horse has run the race and is back home in its stable well before the counting starts.
    
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    October 26, 2016 5:07pm

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