Not all “immigrants” are permament

The Herald reports:

An “explosion” of immigrants is “crowding out” young Kiwis from available jobs, the Salvation Army says.

A report on youth unemployment by the army’s social policy analyst Alan Johnson, using Statistics NZ figures, says immigration of young people aged 15 to 24 has “exploded” from a net gain of 3217 in the year to June 2013 to a net gain of 22,064 in the latest June year.

Yet 74,100 young Kiwis aged 15 to 24 were not in employment, education or training (NEET) in the year to June – a number that has stalled since a drop from 87,000 in 2010 to 72,100 in 2014.

“The persistent numbers of 15 to 24-year-olds who remain outside of the workforce as total job numbers grow, and as young migrants enter New Zealand to take these jobs, suggest this immigration is crowding out more marginalised workers,” the report says.

I think the Salvation Army analysis is rather simplistic.

Yet net “migration” of 15 to 24 year olds has increased by the amount cited. But around 7,500 of that is fewer young Kiwis leaving. So inwards migration is up around 11,500.

But most of those will be students on student visas. They are counted as “migrants” as they will be in NZ for over a year but they have no entitlement to stay on once they finish study (and only 20% do qualify for residency), and they have limited rights to work (up to 20 hours a week only generally).

So I think the analysis is off the mark. A more useful analysis would be of inwards migration of 15 to 24 year olds on residency or work visas.