Net favourabilities in September
538 has interesting data on net favourabilities of candidates in late September of election years. They have been (in order):
- Bush (2000) +24%
- Gore (2000) +23%
- Clinton (1996) +19%
- Obama (2008) +17%
- Bush (1988) +17%
- Reagan (1984) +14%
- McCain (2008) +12%
- Dukakis (1988) +12%
- Bush (2004) +11%
- Clinton (1992) +11%
- Obama (2012) +7%
- Reagan (1980) +6%
- Dole (1996) +3%
- Kerry (2004) -0%
- Romney (2012) -5%
- Mondale (1984) -9%
- Bush (1992) -9%
- Carter (1980) -11%
- Clinton (2016) -14%
- Trump (2016) -24%
Those in bold went onto win. This will be the first election that both the winner and loser will be unpopular.