538’s 13 tips for reading polls
A useful guide from 538:
- Beware of polls tagged “bombshells” or “stunners.”
- Instead, take an average.
- Look for polls that use live interviewers; they have a better track record.
- Know the polling firm – some are waaay better than others.
- Beware the unskewers.
- Check what the pollster said previously. Some pollsters’ results lean more towards one party or the other.
- Consider the motives of the media reporting on the polls.
- Check to see if the poll includes third-party candidates.
- Margin of error and sample size matter less than who’s in the sample, though be wary if the sample size is smaller than 400.
- Don’t get crazy about the Electoral College.
- Still, aggregating the state polls usually provides a better idea of who is going to win than the national polls.
- If the polls shift after the debates … wait. Short-term shifts in polls often reverse themselves.
- Even at the end of the campaign, the polls probably won’t perfectly predict the results.