July 8, 2016 3:49pm by David Farrar

Green says Turnbull has the numbers

ABC election analyst Antony Green says there is no doubt Malcolm Turnbull will be returned as Prime Minister, and the Coalition could secure 77 seats and win majority government.

“Malcolm Turnbull is the Prime Minister and will continue as Prime Minister,” Green told Radio National this morning.

Nothing is official in Australian elections until Antony Green calls it.

On the current figures the Coalition has secured 73 seats while Labor has 66.

The Government would need 76 seats to govern in its own right — there are six seats that have not been called.

“On the numbers, they could get four of the six seats,” Green said.

“Which would give them 77. But they may only win three of the seats.”

If the Coalition falls short of a clear majority, Mr Turnbull has been given assurances from crossbenchers Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan about their intention not to vote against budget supply or confidence unless it is clearly warranted.

So 73 in the bag plus three independents means they can govern. So can they get a majority?

Green said the Liberal Party is on track to win Forde, and is likely to pull ahead in Flynn, Herbert and Capricornia.

Labor is on track to secure Cowan in Western Australia.

That leaves Hindmarsh which is 50:50 with Labor 68 votes ahead.

If Labor get Hindmarsh then it would be 77 to 68 and 5 independents.