So how did the UK pollsters do?

Better than for the UK election but overall still not great.

First let’s look at the polls of polls. None predicted Brexit, let alone by 3.8%. Their summaries were:

1. The Economist – tie
2. HuffPost – Remain +0.5%
3. Elections etc – Remain +1.2%
4. Telegraph, FT, Number Cruncher, Britain Elects – Remain +2%
5. What UK thinks – Remain +4%

And the individual polls:

1. TNS – Leave +2%
2. Opinium – Leave +1%
3. Survation/IGG – Remain +1%
4. YouGov – Remain +2%
5. Ipsos Mori – Remain +3%
6. ORB – Remain +7%
7. ComRes – Remain +8%
8. Populus – Remain +10%

So TNS did best and many well out. The only two to predict leave were both online polls, not phone polls. The phone polls are bolded and online polls in italics