About
Contact
Advertise

Facebook
Twitter

June 21, 2016 10:00am by David Farrar

Latest poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is at Curia. Greens up and National and Labour down.

Share this:

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
WhatsApp
More

Pinterest
Print
Tumblr

Like this:

Like Loading...

Email
Facebook
Twitter
Comment25

NZ Politics
Polls

Comments (25)

Login to comment or vote

Adolf Fiinkensein

No wonder Fatty had a grin all over her face in the wedding photo.

Time for Labour to axe Arthur Askey.
11 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:12am
B.L.Zeebub

So Roy Morgan, is throwing a dart at a dart board a valid survey technique or do they just ask the client what result they would like?
9 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:19am
Captain Mainwaring

Probably a good thing that Green supporters tend to be too stoned to get out of bed on election day.
13 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:19am
Tarquin North

More crazy people out there than I thought.
15 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:25am
Manolo

A strong indication that the number of morons and halfwits continues to grow.
18 2
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:31am
itstricky

No wonder Fatty had a grin all over her face in the wedding photo.

I bet you’re a picture of physical excellence, Adolf.
5 14
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:38am
RalphT

Merely confirms what we’ve known for a while; National will need Winston if it wants a fourth term. And the rise in the Greens at the expense of NZF would reduce Winnie’s bargaining powers. He will find it harder to exclude the Greens from a love-fest with Labour if he has fewer seats than them. In contrast he will probably manage to get a few more out of National if he goes into coalition with them.
10 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:43am
Notsofast

There is a growing realisation that teachers and nurses must afford to both live near their workplaces, and have a little spending money left to catch a bus to a movie. Is there something particularly naive about that proposition? As I am realising, DF’s forum has people detaching their brains before logging in.
1 9
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:45am
alloytoo

@Notsofast @10.45am

(Noting that “Notsofast” has him (or her) self logged in)

Should we raise Teachers and Nurses wages universally and watch how many of them figure out that the regions outside Auckland still offer better value for money.

OR

Provide a premium for working in Auckland and watch it suck the regions dry of talent?
6 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:53am
Adolf Fiinkensein

sticky

Matter of fact, I am.

I’m fitter than half the men half my age.

What about you? Are you a socialist repossitory for adipose tissue?
7 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:57am
waikatogirl

Notsofast
There is a growing realisation that teachers and nurses must afford to both live near their workplaces,
***

Why do they have to live near their workplaces and others don’t?
3 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 11:22am
itstricky

Matter of fact, I am.

And modest, to boot.
0 9
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 11:30am
Notsofast

@waikatogirl who asks

“Why do they have to live near their workplaces and others don’t?”

Anthropologists may one day marvel that such a question could be rationally posed or even look half sensible. These are strange times, but I did reply to my green circular email on the accommodation issue that the 5k would get people to Kaikohe where the industry is a prison. That should get the town rockin’.
1 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 11:39am
waripori

A poll mid term is not all that definitive but it does all look as though Labour under Little are working their way towards oblivion. From stepping aside in Northland to help Winnie to giving equal billing to the Greens in the left’s campaign they seem to be conceding they are not the major force they were. That probably has something to do with money but it will have more to do with their fundamental purpose no longer being very relevant. As the party of organised labour in a world where labour is increasingly disorganised they now represent a very few trade union activists and a bunch of older voters rusted on out of habit. The future is bleak unless they can come up with a new reason for being. One day in a future not too far away we might see the major party of the left being the Greens with a significant Mana party on the far left and a Labour rump towards the centre forming a government as the electoral cycle will move against the Nats at some point.
7 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 11:40am
Notsofast

@waripori.
You must be looking at a different poll to me. Let’s look at it another way.

Conservatives 43%
Lib/lab coalition 42.5%

I am just trying to clarify what it might look like to a British observer from a couple of decades ago.
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 11:50am
RRM

Coalition Options

CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern

CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

I don’t like this.

Winston must know that he would be able to rule the roost in a coalition of Himself, Labour and the Greens, just because of the general weakness and incompetence of his bedfellows.
I don’t think he’d be so sure about that if he went with the Nats.

What is needed, is

1) ACT to radically grow its appeal to the under-35 vote. I’m sure a lot of those people just vote Green because it’s “cool” and all of their friends on facebook are doing it. For all of David Seymour’s initial promise, ACT seemed to have slipped back to their normal baseline level (at or just above 0.00%)

and/or

2) National to pull out a real crowd-pleaser that lifts them back up nearer to 50%
7 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 12:43pm
waripori

Notsofast
What exactly is a Lib/lab coalition?

All I am saying is that Labour seem to be recognising that the left vote is bleeding away from them and they are powerless to stop it unless they come up with some new reason for being.
2 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 12:43pm
MGT

“I’m fitter than half the men half my age.”

I guess it just depends which half you’re comparing yourself to Adolf
1 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 12:44pm
Adolf Fiinkensein

sticky

Isn’t it a real bastard when someone shoves some hard facts up your arse? Or down your throat?
2 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 1:04pm
MGT

Adolf – we all know that you are a stickler for correct spelling and good grammar, so please get your spelling correct, especially when abusing someone – “repossitory” !!
1 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 1:08pm
cmm

I think this is more of an indictment of John Key going soft and squishy of late. He seems to have lost his sense of authoritative leadership.

Going soft on immigration, letting Paula Bennett get out of hand, going pro-EU, too much touchy-feely policy making rather than data driven and wearing his pink tie too often.

People are really getting confused as to what National gives them any more….
2 2
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 1:15pm
paul scott

RRM [ 12.43 ] ACT with Seymour is now alienating its traditional supporters with liberal social policy. eg more immigration.
Worse Seymour is hung up on Superannuation and is completely lacking in the Race based privilege, and RMA department.
Expect no improvement in ACT numbers.

The crowd pleaser you are looking for is a Brash type Orewa speech.
A full frontal attack on race based privilege.
Nat are getting softer [ see cmm above 1.15 ] and there is no hope there. So that leaves you know who.
NZ First are difficult to work with, we all know that, but as election gets nearer watch the feelers go out.
Expect a series of meaningless statements from Nat. Like the tax break soon.
1 1
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 2:33pm
Anthony

Seymour has worked quite hard in the RMA space – just not that noticeable at the moment. On other issues he is trying not to give any ammunition to the ‘Act are greedy racists’ brigade.
1 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 6:15pm
Hurricane

I don’t see a place for a Winston Peters-led New Zealand First in a government that I lead…. Historically he has always been sacked by prime ministers. It’s a very different style to mine and its rearward-looking. I’m about tomorrow. I’m not about yesterday.
1 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 21, 2016 10:19pm
deadrightkev

When the latest poll comes out on KB I try hard not to but the urge to cringe and shudder is all consuming.

Act is not an option. Seymour is not a leader.
0 0
Log in to Reply
Report
June 23, 2016 10:56am

Add a Comment Cancel reply

Login to comment or vote

« Quote of the week

A NZ Muslim on Islam »

Donations

You can now donate to Kiwiblog

Exclusive content from DPF on Patreon

Become a Patron!

Never miss a post

Email Address

Join 37.3K other subscribers

Highlights

Health Target 5 – elective treatments
Health Target 4 – Specialist appointments
Health Target 3 – Emergency Dept Waiting Times
Health Target 2 – Immunisations

Top Stories

General Debate 04 November 2024
Did we pay for Debbie Ngarewa-Packer to go to Hawaii?
The left hate grassroots organisations that they don't own
Does the TPM Secretary know he could face jail time?
Prebble appointed to Waitangi Tribunal
Final US election forecasts
The shock Iowa poll
WCC wants to hide what people think of them
Should patients be able to specify the race of health staff?
Kemi wins

Recent Posts

The left hate grassroots organisations that they don’t own 4 November 2024
Does the TPM Secretary know he could face jail time? 4 November 2024
Prebble appointed to Waitangi Tribunal 4 November 2024
Final US election forecasts 4 November 2024
Did we pay for Debbie Ngarewa-Packer to go to Hawaii? 4 November 2024
General Debate 04 November 2024 4 November 2024
WCC wants to hide what people think of them 4 November 2024
The shock Iowa poll 3 November 2024
Should patients be able to specify the race of health staff? 3 November 2024
Major party vote share 3 November 2024
Kemi wins 3 November 2024
General Debate 03 November 2024 3 November 2024

Recent Comments

The left hate grassroots organisations that they don’t own
Rich Prick
Final US election forecasts
bco90
Did we pay for Debbie Ngarewa-Packer to go to Hawaii?
AitchW
General Debate 04 November 2024
NeverMindTheBollocks
General Debate 04 November 2024
NeverMindTheBollocks
Does the TPM Secretary know he could face jail time?
NeverMindTheBollocks
Final US election forecasts
Tauhei Notts
Does the TPM Secretary know he could face jail time?
MikeMan
Does the TPM Secretary know he could face jail time?
Hugh Jarse
General Debate 04 November 2024
Maggy Wassilieff
The left hate grassroots organisations that they don’t own
ScrubOne
The left hate grassroots organisations that they don’t own
Pope Punctilious II
The left hate grassroots organisations that they don’t own
Pope Punctilious II
The left hate grassroots organisations that they don’t own
David Garrett
Does the TPM Secretary know he could face jail time?
fernglas

Links

No, Fossil Fuels Are Not Being “Subsidised”
Utopia
Sabotaging justice
No Right Turn
2024 Listener’s Choice Podcast Awards
The Daily Blog
What would Sumner say about Trump and Vance’s pro-tariff rhetoric?
Not PC
The 2024 US Election: A No-Win Scenario
The Standard
Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Stats Chat
Word of the day
Hompaddock
A tariffying prospect for Kiwi exporters: Trump plans to tax imports – but a Harris presidency would be not much better
Point of Order
NZ media’s “propagandisation” of the US Election
Bob McCoskrie's McBlog
Your Cheatin’ Ballot II: Pennsylvania
No Minister
THE PUNCHING ABOVE OUR WEIGHT EMBARRASSMENT
No Punches Pulled (Bob Jones)
US military-industrial-sports complex.
Kiwipolitico
The Battle for Democracy
NZCPR
Pretty (il)legal
Croaking Cassandra
Where are the food carts?
Offsetting Behaviour
Tory Whanau may have to sell Wellington mayoralty to make ends meet
The Civilian
The Accidental Engagement
Imperator Fish
Legal Beagle: Election '23: The Special Votes
Public Address
Making this movie might have been a mistake
Liam Hehir
Why I am retiring from political blogging
Kiwi FireWalker
Angie Warren-Clark: Meet the Newbies
Dan Moskovitz

editor@kiwiblog.co.nz

PO Box 12270, Thorndon, Wellington 6144

Facebook
Twitter
FourSquare
Instagram
LinkedIn
Google+

© 2003-2024 David Farrar

Archives
Disclosure Statement
Editorial Policy
Privacy Policy
Complaints Policy
Comments Policy

Design by cre8d

%d