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June 21, 2016 10:00am by David Farrar

Latest poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is at Curia. Greens up and National and Labour down.

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Comment25

NZ Politics
Polls

Comments (25)

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Adolf Fiinkensein

No wonder Fatty had a grin all over her face in the wedding photo.

Time for Labour to axe Arthur Askey.
11 1
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June 21, 2016 10:12am
B.L.Zeebub

So Roy Morgan, is throwing a dart at a dart board a valid survey technique or do they just ask the client what result they would like?
9 1
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June 21, 2016 10:19am
Captain Mainwaring

Probably a good thing that Green supporters tend to be too stoned to get out of bed on election day.
13 1
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June 21, 2016 10:19am
Tarquin North

More crazy people out there than I thought.
15 1
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June 21, 2016 10:25am
Manolo

A strong indication that the number of morons and halfwits continues to grow.
18 2
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June 21, 2016 10:31am
itstricky

No wonder Fatty had a grin all over her face in the wedding photo.

I bet you’re a picture of physical excellence, Adolf.
5 14
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June 21, 2016 10:38am
RalphT

Merely confirms what we’ve known for a while; National will need Winston if it wants a fourth term. And the rise in the Greens at the expense of NZF would reduce Winnie’s bargaining powers. He will find it harder to exclude the Greens from a love-fest with Labour if he has fewer seats than them. In contrast he will probably manage to get a few more out of National if he goes into coalition with them.
10 0
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June 21, 2016 10:43am
Notsofast

There is a growing realisation that teachers and nurses must afford to both live near their workplaces, and have a little spending money left to catch a bus to a movie. Is there something particularly naive about that proposition? As I am realising, DF’s forum has people detaching their brains before logging in.
1 9
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June 21, 2016 10:45am
alloytoo

@Notsofast @10.45am

(Noting that “Notsofast” has him (or her) self logged in)

Should we raise Teachers and Nurses wages universally and watch how many of them figure out that the regions outside Auckland still offer better value for money.

OR

Provide a premium for working in Auckland and watch it suck the regions dry of talent?
6 0
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June 21, 2016 10:53am
Adolf Fiinkensein

sticky

Matter of fact, I am.

I’m fitter than half the men half my age.

What about you? Are you a socialist repossitory for adipose tissue?
7 1
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June 21, 2016 10:57am
waikatogirl

Notsofast
There is a growing realisation that teachers and nurses must afford to both live near their workplaces,
***

Why do they have to live near their workplaces and others don’t?
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June 21, 2016 11:22am
itstricky

Matter of fact, I am.

And modest, to boot.
0 9
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June 21, 2016 11:30am
Notsofast

@waikatogirl who asks

“Why do they have to live near their workplaces and others don’t?”

Anthropologists may one day marvel that such a question could be rationally posed or even look half sensible. These are strange times, but I did reply to my green circular email on the accommodation issue that the 5k would get people to Kaikohe where the industry is a prison. That should get the town rockin’.
1 1
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June 21, 2016 11:39am
waripori

A poll mid term is not all that definitive but it does all look as though Labour under Little are working their way towards oblivion. From stepping aside in Northland to help Winnie to giving equal billing to the Greens in the left’s campaign they seem to be conceding they are not the major force they were. That probably has something to do with money but it will have more to do with their fundamental purpose no longer being very relevant. As the party of organised labour in a world where labour is increasingly disorganised they now represent a very few trade union activists and a bunch of older voters rusted on out of habit. The future is bleak unless they can come up with a new reason for being. One day in a future not too far away we might see the major party of the left being the Greens with a significant Mana party on the far left and a Labour rump towards the centre forming a government as the electoral cycle will move against the Nats at some point.
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June 21, 2016 11:40am
Notsofast

@waripori.
You must be looking at a different poll to me. Let’s look at it another way.

Conservatives 43%
Lib/lab coalition 42.5%

I am just trying to clarify what it might look like to a British observer from a couple of decades ago.
0 0
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June 21, 2016 11:50am
RRM

Coalition Options

CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern

CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

I don’t like this.

Winston must know that he would be able to rule the roost in a coalition of Himself, Labour and the Greens, just because of the general weakness and incompetence of his bedfellows.
I don’t think he’d be so sure about that if he went with the Nats.

What is needed, is

1) ACT to radically grow its appeal to the under-35 vote. I’m sure a lot of those people just vote Green because it’s “cool” and all of their friends on facebook are doing it. For all of David Seymour’s initial promise, ACT seemed to have slipped back to their normal baseline level (at or just above 0.00%)

and/or

2) National to pull out a real crowd-pleaser that lifts them back up nearer to 50%
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June 21, 2016 12:43pm
waripori

Notsofast
What exactly is a Lib/lab coalition?

All I am saying is that Labour seem to be recognising that the left vote is bleeding away from them and they are powerless to stop it unless they come up with some new reason for being.
2 0
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June 21, 2016 12:43pm
MGT

“I’m fitter than half the men half my age.”

I guess it just depends which half you’re comparing yourself to Adolf
1 0
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June 21, 2016 12:44pm
Adolf Fiinkensein

sticky

Isn’t it a real bastard when someone shoves some hard facts up your arse? Or down your throat?
2 1
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June 21, 2016 1:04pm
MGT

Adolf – we all know that you are a stickler for correct spelling and good grammar, so please get your spelling correct, especially when abusing someone – “repossitory” !!
1 0
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June 21, 2016 1:08pm
cmm

I think this is more of an indictment of John Key going soft and squishy of late. He seems to have lost his sense of authoritative leadership.

Going soft on immigration, letting Paula Bennett get out of hand, going pro-EU, too much touchy-feely policy making rather than data driven and wearing his pink tie too often.

People are really getting confused as to what National gives them any more….
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June 21, 2016 1:15pm
paul scott

RRM [ 12.43 ] ACT with Seymour is now alienating its traditional supporters with liberal social policy. eg more immigration.
Worse Seymour is hung up on Superannuation and is completely lacking in the Race based privilege, and RMA department.
Expect no improvement in ACT numbers.

The crowd pleaser you are looking for is a Brash type Orewa speech.
A full frontal attack on race based privilege.
Nat are getting softer [ see cmm above 1.15 ] and there is no hope there. So that leaves you know who.
NZ First are difficult to work with, we all know that, but as election gets nearer watch the feelers go out.
Expect a series of meaningless statements from Nat. Like the tax break soon.
1 1
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June 21, 2016 2:33pm
Anthony

Seymour has worked quite hard in the RMA space – just not that noticeable at the moment. On other issues he is trying not to give any ammunition to the ‘Act are greedy racists’ brigade.
1 0
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June 21, 2016 6:15pm
Hurricane

I don’t see a place for a Winston Peters-led New Zealand First in a government that I lead…. Historically he has always been sacked by prime ministers. It’s a very different style to mine and its rearward-looking. I’m about tomorrow. I’m not about yesterday.
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June 21, 2016 10:19pm
deadrightkev

When the latest poll comes out on KB I try hard not to but the urge to cringe and shudder is all consuming.

Act is not an option. Seymour is not a leader.
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June 23, 2016 10:56am

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