Beware of geographic breakdown of polls

Stuff reports:

Hamilton residents and New Zealand First supporters are among four groups which want fewer migrants allowed in the country.

In a recent Colmar-Brunton political poll, people were asked about the number of migrants the Government should let in to the country.

The results showed 42 per cent of those polled in Hamilton, wanted the Government to let fewer migrants in.

Other groups polled which also wanted fewer migrants included 38 per cent of those living in small towns or rural areas, 53 per cent of Maori and 40 per cent of New Zealand First supporters.

Overall figures showed just over half (51 per cent) of New Zealand voters polled believed the number of migrants being let in is about right, close to a quarter, or 27 per cent, said the government should let fewer in and nearly a fifth, or 18 per cent say the Government should let more migrants in. Four per cent said they did not know.

This is a good example of why one should be wary of reading too much into some poll breakdowns.

The poll is of 1,000 people. Around 3.5% of NZ live in Hamilton so I’d assume only 35 people from Hamilton were polled. That has a margin of error of around +/- 17%.