Cruz and Clinton leading
Hillary Clinton has a narrow lead of 51% to 49% over Sanders in Ohio with 67% reporting. That gap has been closing but I’d say she’ll hang on.
On the Republican side Cruz is 29%, Trump 25% and Rubio 21%. Cruz’s lead has been expanding. Only 57% reporting.
How is this compared to the polls:
- Clinton 51% vs 48% in polls
- Sanders 49% vs 45% in polls
- Trump 25% vs 31% in polls
- Cruz 29% vs 24% in polls
- Rubio 21% vs 17% in polls
If Clinton holds on, then she’ll lose New Hampshire but start winning all the stats after that.
The GOP side is more interesting.
Trump’s whole campaign has been about he is the best and is beating everyone and everyone else is stupid. How he copes with a loss will be fascinating.
Cruz will be delighted with a win and will try and win over anti-establishment votes from Carson and eventually Trump.
Rubio will be pleased to do better than polling, and I suspect we will see some candidates drop out in the next month and endorse him.
UPDATE: Cruz has won on 28%, Trump 24% and Rubio 23%. One the Democratic side it is a squeeker – Clinton is ahead 629 to 626 (equivalent state delegates) with 10% still to report. Sanders may beat her yet.