Predictions for 2016
Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2016:
- There will be a by-election in 2016
- There will be a change to the composition of the Key Ministry in 2016
- A List MP will leave Parliament in 2016
- We will have a new Speaker during the year
- Jacinda Ardern will poll within 2% of Andrew Little as Preferred PM
- The 2015/16 year will also end in surplus
- The official cash rate will not rise in 2016
- National will poll higher than Labour and Greens combined in at least 80% of public polls
- The current flag will win in the second referendum
- David Shearer will be appointed the Government’s Special Envoy for the Middle East
- Phil Goff will not be elected Mayor of Auckland
- Lianne Dalziel will be re-elected Mayor of Christchurch
- A registered political party will deregister during the year
- Celia Wade-Brown will not be re-elected Mayor of Wellington
- NZ First will poll higher than the Greens in at least one public poll
- John Key will host two of the five permanent members (their heads of governments) of the Security Council in NZ in 2015
- One or more Labour Maori MPs will break ranks with Labour on a major policy or issue
- The Greens will declare more large donations than Labour in their annual return to the Electoral Commission
- Unemployment will drop back below 6%
- The NZ Herald will publish more stories about Max Key than about the Maori Party, ACT Party and United Future combined