General Debate 12 November 2015

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Griff

Petition of Penelope Mary Bright and 55 others

Penny if we could arrange a petition of 55 people telling you to stop your tilting at windmills would you take any notice?
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November 12, 2015 10:03am
Kimbo

@ mikenmild

“Had I heard the remark…I would have ruled it to be unparliamentary and required the prime minister to withdraw and apologise for it,” Carter said.

And in other news, blogger mikenmild says that the 2015 World Cup All Blacks should now apologise for committing penalties that the referee did not see or rule on at the time.

Also, as the referee overlooked a forward pass leading up to a penalty that broke a tight 3-3 deadlock 5 minutes before half time in the final, mikenmild says that means the All Blacks win is tainted. MP Catherine Delahunty agrees, and will raise the matter with Parliament’s Speaker to get the game replayed…
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November 12, 2015 10:06am
Fletch

Someone has done the math, and it will take $1.5 Trillion a year to reduce global warming by 0.048°C.

Bjørn “Skeptical Environmentalist” Lomborg has been doing the math on global warming – and it’s worse than we thought.

Even if every nation in the world adheres to its climate change commitments by 2030 the only difference it will make to “global warming” by the end of this century will be to reduce the world’s temperatures by 0.048°C (0.086°F).

That’s 1/20th of a degree C.

Let’s put this into perspective.

Earlier this year, Climate Change Business Journal calculated that the annual cost of the global warming industry is $1.5 trillion.

If you want to know what that looks like in numerals it is:

$1,500,000,000,000

[…]

All this destruction and expense just to reduce the world’s temperature – even according the most optimistic scenario – by 0.170 degrees C.

$1.5 trillion per year to shave off, at best, less than one fifth of a degree centigrade by the end of the century.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/10/cost-climate-change-1-5-trillion-year-reduce-global-warming-0-048c/

They have a handy-dandy chart at the link, but as mentioned in the quote, the most optimistic prediction is a lowering of 0.170 degrees. What a frickin’ waste of time and money.
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November 12, 2015 10:08am
Keeping Stock

@ Gabby – you seem to have a fixation with the bottom end of the alimentary canal, given your paraphrasing of the noms-de-plume of many of those who comment here.

Perhaps that explains why your snarky comments often read as though they are coming out of the that particular part of the anatomy; just sayin…
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November 12, 2015 10:09am
fernglas

So Ron Mark is presenting a petition on behalf of Penny Bright. Both have gone down in my estimation.
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November 12, 2015 10:10am
doggone7

My pick is that Fran O’Sullivan: “Little’s grab for territory limp-wristed” will feature on Whale Oil and here.
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November 12, 2015 10:11am
KevinH

Unfortunate that the Labour M.P’s who staged a walkout at parliament yesterday have personalised the detention centre fracas into an issue concerning themselves.
Will those same M.P’s support the detainee’s now that their criminal history has become public?.
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November 12, 2015 10:11am
mikenmild

Sorry to show you were wrong, Kimbo. I’ll try not to do it again. No need for you to apologise.
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November 12, 2015 10:17am
Keeping Stock

@ Penny Bright – well done on getting 55 people to sign your petition “That the House conduct an urgent inquiry into the cost-effectiveness, transparency, and democratic accountability to Auckland Council and the majority of Auckland citizens and ratepayers, of all Auckland Council Controlled Organisations (CCOs).”

Unfortunately however, the graph at the link below suggests that Auckland’s population this year is in the region of 1.55 million. That means your petition represents 0.00003548% of Aucklanders. Conversely, that means that 99.99996452% of Aucklanders either disagree with you, or don’t care!

http://figure.nz/chart/SJ55NQw8yzlKHUOn
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November 12, 2015 10:18am
Griff

Bjørn “~~Skeptical Environmentalist”~~wingnut bullshit artist Lomborg has been ~~doing,~~fiddling the math on global warming – and it’s worse than we thought.
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/lomborg-if-we-emit-more-well-warm-more/
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November 12, 2015 10:20am
Manolo

Good on Australia for cracking down on those NZ criminals. All power to the Aussie minister.
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November 12, 2015 10:20am
minus

Furious female MPs reveal their own sexual abuse past after John Key’s rape remarks

Perhaps Andrew Little could have been more careful in his comments regarding who Labour supports.
Maybe he could have said “Labour supports the rights of those guilty of man-slaughter, assault, robbery, who believe they are more Australian than New Zealanders, but not rapists”
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November 12, 2015 10:21am
mikenmild

I think you are a bit confused about who said what, minus.
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November 12, 2015 10:24am
Paulus Gnome

Is gabby going for some sort of down-tick record; Penny’s love child?
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November 12, 2015 10:24am
Kimbo

@ mikenmild

Sorry to show you were wrong, Kimbo. I’ll try not to do it again. No need for you to apologise.

Care to show me, in the Speaker’s statements (and let’s face it, mikenmild, when it comes to what happens regarding conduct in the House, he is in effect the “sole judge of fact”) where he considers that (to quote you) “by standing by his comments, Key has also given the fingers to the Speaker” by now failing to withdraw and apologise?

I mean, really? Is the best that Labour trolls have got? And you guys wonder why the most popular PM in living memory is headed towards a 4th term?!
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November 12, 2015 10:25am
Lucia Maria

Mandk,

there are two roundabouts in Seaview where, because of the road layout, it’s not clear whether you are travelling straight ahead or turning right, if you are heading from Petone to Eastbourne.

So, some roundabouts need full indicator rules in to be enforced, I can understand that. Maybe those roundabouts needs massive signs to that effect, especially for those unfamiliar with the area.
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November 12, 2015 10:26am
minus

Where is any integrity, honesty of transparency in a petition requesting –
“That the House conduct an urgent inquiry into the cost-effectiveness, transparency, and democratic accountability to Auckland Council and the majority of Auckland citizens and ratepayers, of all Auckland Council Controlled Organisations (CCOs).”
– when the originator is classified as a rate-payer, but does not pay her rates?
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November 12, 2015 10:27am
mikenmild

Ha ha, Kimbo – king of the hair splitters. Must be all that theological study. Did you ever manage to work out exactly how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
If you look back, you will see that I have not claimed that of Carter. It is my personal opinion that, by standing by his comments after Carter had said he would have ruled them unparliamentary had he heard them, Key is giving Carter the fingers.
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November 12, 2015 10:35am
Kimbo

@ mikenmild

It is my personal opinion that, by standing by his comments after Carter had said he would have ruled them unparliamentary had he heard them, Key is giving Carter the fingers.

Oh, well, that’s ok then. And I accordingly withdraw and apologise as I initially thought you were attempting to quote or imply something from someone whose point-of-view was worth considering.
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November 12, 2015 10:42am
Maggy Wassilieff

@cmm 8:09

You ask for some explanation of the female Parliamentarians’ outrage at John Key’s reference to rapist detainees.

Like you, I have found the logic a bit loose, and difficult to get my head around.

But perhaps this interview clip with Jan Logie helps:

Because she has been sexually abused in the past she is offended by the PM using rape/rapists as a political score point.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/john-keys-rape-comment-was-deeply-personally-offensive-mp.html

I don’t think it relates to the Christmas Island issue at all…..
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November 12, 2015 10:43am
mikenmild

I guess that’s as close as Kimbo gets to gracious…
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November 12, 2015 10:44am
Lucia Maria

No Kiwi rapists or murderers on Christmas Island

There are no rapists or murderers among the Kiwi detainees at the controversial Christmas Island detention centre.

The Australian Government provided Justice Minister Amy Adams with a detailed breakdown of the crimes New Zealand men being held at the centre had committed, Radio NZ reported.

The list of offences includes manslaughter, armed robbery, grievous bodily harm and assaulting a child or wife with a weapon.

READ MORE
• Jailed Kiwi soldier was Key’s bodyguard
• Female MPS silenced and ejected from Parliament

One New Zealander had been convicted of indecently assaulting a child.

I really wish the NZ Parliament would sometimes stop the political theatre and point scoring and look at issues dispassionately. It seems it’s more about sticking to the other party than it is about looking out for the interests of New Zealanders, where ever they might be.
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November 12, 2015 10:45am
Kimbo

@ mikenmild

I guess that’s as close as Kimbo gets to gracious…

Not so, as Maggy Wassilieff noticed yesterday, I was genuinely grateful that a quasi-fascist like kowtow corrected my initial mis-spelling of ‘jib’. Wisdom can come from many unexpected places if one is prepared to exercise humility. Although as I doubt you inhabit these parts to learn, I’m not so hopeful in your case…

But don’t despair. Write something worthwhile, mikenmild, and you’ll get a gold star from me. But bear in mind in my increasingly-more mature years, as my one-time youthful membership of the Labour Party recedes ever further into the past, I’m of the opinion people have to earn it…rather than have it bestowed as a “human right”. Maybe you can get Catherine Delahunty to march out of somewhere sometime in the near future in protest at that attitude.
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November 12, 2015 10:50am
Brigitte

For those complaining about “adjustments to temperature data”, I collected all the unadjusted monthly temperatures from the Hadley Centre CRU data collection.

There were 597 sites with at least 30 years data (532 with 40 years). I used Excels LINEST function to get the slope of the best fit to the data (above 0 means warming, below 0 means cooling).

Of these 42 or 7% showed cooling (min slope was -0.068C per annum). The max change was warming of 0.101C per annum. The average was 0.033C per annum. That last number means 1C every 30 years.

For 40 years, 40 or 8% showed cooling (min slope was -0.040C per annum). The max change was warming of 0.087C per annum. The average was 0.024C per annum. That last number means 1C every 42 years.

These numbers are consistent with the processed global results. So, unless you can find evidence to the contrary, you need to accept that there IS GLOBAL WARMING.
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November 12, 2015 10:52am
mikenmild

So Starbucks in the US decided to use a plain red cup for their Christmas season coffees.

This got some fundies upset because not mentioning baby Jesus on the cups was obviously part of the imaginary ‘war’ on Christmas. Calls for a boycott of Starbucks ensure.

Now Bristol Palin (!) has sorted it out: the boycott calls are a liberal plot to ‘make Christians look stupid’. Sorry Bristol, you don’t need any help to look stupid.

http://americannewsx.com/hot-off-the-press/bristol-palin-starbucks-boycott-a-liberal-attempt-to-make-christians-look-stupid/
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November 12, 2015 10:52am
mikenmild

Brigitte
Shame on you. A pox on your pesky data and logical conclusions.
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November 12, 2015 10:54am
Griff

Kimbo
What is a quasi-fascist ?

I googled the praise and the most helpful comment I found was.
If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.
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November 12, 2015 10:56am
Harriet

“… Did you ever manage to work out exactly how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?…’

You must be pissed out of your mind in the gay bars if you have to ask that milky. 😎
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November 12, 2015 10:56am
dime

Dime has been busy and it a bit behind.. so this has probably been said..

But have a fucking look at them hahaha

Would you bet money against them being from the left? jesus christ.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03498/MP_s_3498336b.jpg
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November 12, 2015 10:58am
Maggy Wassilieff

@Brigitte

Good one. Now if you have a few spare minutes could you just run a check on those pesky satellite numbers that don’t seem to be agreeing with the surface temps?
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November 12, 2015 10:58am
geoff3012

Tarquin North (855 comments) says:
November 12th, 2015 at 8:48 am
I see Catherine Delahunty claims she was abused when she was 15 – god there’s some sick people out there. She didn’t mention it until now and the alleged abuser and only person who can back up her story is conveniently dead. Climate change probably got to him, either that or acid rain.

Fuck that is sssoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo FUNNY……..made my day!
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November 12, 2015 10:59am
Kimbo

@ Griff

Kimbo
What is a quasi-fascist ?

I googled the praise and the most helpful comment I found was.
If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.

To my mind, and in the context in which I used it (and I must confess I’m not sure it is the best descriptor for kowtow) it means it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck…but nonetheless it insists it is a kiwi, wanting to preserve its habitat by the automatic exclusion of foreign ducks…in particular water fowl from the Middle East.
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November 12, 2015 10:59am
dime

11% of comments in this thread are from milky.

for fucks sake man. cant you make a few points and let others have a turn?

14 garbage posts.

scared to think how many in other threads.

are you on holiday? redundant?
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November 12, 2015 11:00am
Albert_Ross

The walkouts have made a crap-awful job of explaining their position on the detainees, but it’s not completely indefensible. It goes thus:

– Much like “free speech”, the term “human rights” is meaningless if it only applies to people we approve of. Just as freedom of speech by definition includes the right to say anything, no matter how bad – human rights are by definition what everybody has, regardless of how bad they are. That is an important principle.
– The Christmas Island detainees are humans and so they have human rights.
– I am myself a victim of sexual abuse so I know full well how terrible are the crimes that some of them have committed. This makes my support of their human rights truly noble, courageous and magnanimous.
– It is insulting to have this noble, courageous and magnanimous position dismissed as “crim-hugging”.

What is really wrong with their argument, is that “something is being done to me by Government, that I don’t like” does not equate to “my human rights are being abused”.

That’s no more valid than saying that I am breaching your right to free speech if I say “I do not agree with what you say, and I think you an idiot for saying it”.

Agreeing that being deported from a country that you have no right to live in, constitutes a breach of human rights, is itself a trivialization of the important concept of human rights.
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November 12, 2015 11:05am
rangitoto

“Dime has been busy and it a bit behind.. so this has probably been said..

But have a fucking look at them hahaha

Would you bet money against them being from the left? jesus christ.”

I thought they must have been on their way to a halloween party.
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November 12, 2015 11:06am
Harriet

Very very well put Albert Ross @ 11.05
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November 12, 2015 11:08am
Odakyu-sen

Brigitte,

You have to be sure that there have been no external man-made changes responsible for the higher temperature readings at the points of measurement.

I’ll give you an example. Back in the 1960s, frost would leave 2 cm of ice on a bucket of water in fields near my house. By the 1990s, the field was surrounded by houses and concreted parking lots. Even after a frosty night, there would never be anything like 2 cm of ice in the same bucket.

Any ideas why? Was it climate change?
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November 12, 2015 11:11am
stephieboy

milkenmild at 9.06am , thank you for the following ,

“I see John Key is getting more and more confused.
Today he is standing by his comments that Labour was backing murderers and rapists. At the same time he says he has stood up for the detainees.
Surely he cannot have it both ways. He can’t claim to stand up for the rights of the detainees but accuse anyone else who does exactly the same thing of supporting criminals.
Hypocrite much?”

An isolated beacon of light of sound reasoning and good sense in a pig swill of moonbat craziness as e.g per dime just above.
.
Those detainees that will be sent home whether rabid rightoids like or not. Time for all of them to think about establsihing a welcoming parade on their arrival.
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November 12, 2015 11:11am
Harriet

“….Surely he cannot have it both ways. He can’t claim to stand up for the rights of the detainees but accuse anyone else who does exactly the same thing of supporting criminals.
Hypocrite much?”….”

so you want the detainees to remain as detainees – and not the option to appeal from NZ – and just like Labour?

Key’s not a hypocrite for his stance on this.

Labour wants these people set free – but ONLY in Australia – that’s the truth = that’s their position!
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November 12, 2015 11:15am
Griff

Why Maggy funny you noticed

No Maggy you can not check those satellite numbers as satellites dont even directly measure temperatures .
The programs required to actually get temperatures from microwave sensors on fourteen separate satellites though the atmospheric layers is way out side the scope of amateur attempts.
In fact even the experts find the data from them needs to be manually adjusted daily with a guess for drift .

As UHF and RSS disagree with each other way more than the five different surface records it is best to ignore them especially as we dont live eight KMs up.
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November 12, 2015 11:15am
mikenmild

dime
Thanks for your interest. I’m quite well, thank you.
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November 12, 2015 11:15am
calendar girl

“Calendar Girl, don’t bother engaging with Gabby, she is unable to understand!”

Thanks, Waikatogirl. I didn’t expect to ‘engage with’ the charming “Gabby”. My comment was more a statement to the decent people on here who use Kiwiblog for news, mental stimulation and lively debate. Those who are into fanatical hatred are usually found elsewhere.
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November 12, 2015 11:15am
Chuck Bird

I hope this scumbag gets outed.

Hollywood superstar and womaniser reported to have HIV

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=11543903
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November 12, 2015 11:15am
Odakyu-sen

Albert_Ross

Support for the human rights of criminals is a noble and principled thing to do; however, you also need to be able to protect yourself from such people.

It may be principled to save the life of a threatened but deadly and aggressive snake, but that snake may still try to bite you, so you had better have your defences ready.

To act with no thought to the consequences is foolish. (Ref: Merkel)
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November 12, 2015 11:17am
Fletch

Here’s a question for you.

If one of those NZ detainees (“rapists” as Key calls them) actually was one of the men who had raped one of those Labour MP’s who had walked out, do you still think those same MPs would be so well-intentioned toward the prisoners? Or that they would have walked out at all?

To be honest, I can’t see the reasoning for them walking out at all.
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November 12, 2015 11:20am
Kimbo

@ stephieboy

…An isolated beacon of light of sound reasoning and good sense in a pig swill of moonbat craziness…

Fair enough. We are all entitled to an opinion – and credit to DPF as this is one of the few places you can express it with limited restrictions – and I have to say some recent comment, particularly those concerning the utterly irrelevant issue of the physical appearance of Labout and Green women MPs fall into the ‘pig swill’ category.

However, if you really think that, why have you hung around long enough to make over 8000 comments?

Or are you like the Green/Labour women MPs, who, on yesterday’s performance use ‘outrage’ and the cry ‘I’m offended’ in the absence of adult reasons to try and change the minds of others? Although, to their credit, at least they don’t troll.

Just asking…
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November 12, 2015 11:22am
publicwatchdog

Seems that I have a better understanding of the Parliamentary process than a number of Kiwibloggers?

Here’s how it works – FYI.

You don’t actually need a cast of thousands to sign petitions addressed to ‘The House’ (of Parliament).

You need to have appropriate wording, and an MP who will present it.

That’s it.

It’s all about ‘being effective’?

Kind regards,

Penny Bright

2016 Auckland Mayoral candidate.
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November 12, 2015 11:22am
dime

stephie & milky – you are both morons.

i was actually going to make a point, but with what this thread has deteriorated into, ill leave it at that.

stephie does get a point for telling as muslims arent civilized yesterday though.
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November 12, 2015 11:22am
stephieboy

Fletch, foremost Climate denial and ‘scientist ” Breitbart’s James Delingpole take a a mauling from a real scientist on climate change

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuQLvK6kxeU
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November 12, 2015 11:24am
Tauhei Notts

Catherine Delahunty said that she was abused when she was 15 years old.
The inference to be drawn from that comment is that she has never been abused since.
That being so, I will bring her up to date and abuse her in November 2015.
“Catherine Delahunty; you are a stupid bitch”
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November 12, 2015 11:26am
SPC

The facts are that none of the Kiwi detainees had been convicted of the crimes of murder or rape.

Yet the PM stands by his comments, despite them being untrue in fact.

The term for that is third term hubris.
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November 12, 2015 11:27am
mikenmild

That’s actually a pretty nasty comment, Tauhei, if you reflect on it.
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November 12, 2015 11:29am
LegioXII

It should be obvious that the whole affair in Parliament was an orchestrated hit by Labour, starting with Davis screeching at him in the corridor. The PM is obviously working on the issue, even if he really should not be, and Labour just wanted to score cheap points. All of the detainees are there for good reasons, and Australia is not soft when it comes to foreigners breaking the law, overstaying, or just being trouble making filth, like the degenerate who joined a gang. That is to their credit, and it’s not NZ’s business to dictate to them when our own immigration system is used as a weapon against the New Zealand people.
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November 12, 2015 11:29am
Fletch

Here’s putting it in another way –

Key: you do realize that some of those prisoners are Nigerian phone scam artists!

Female Labour MPs: You can’t say that! Some of us were ripped off by phone scammers when we were young! We’re walking out!

I still don’t get the connection….
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November 12, 2015 11:29am
Maggy Wassilieff

@Griff

As UHF and RSS disagree with each other way more than the five different surface records it is best to ignore them

And therein lies the nonsense of climate alarmism. A good scientist does not disregard inconvenient measurements. He/she investigates further what is going on.
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November 12, 2015 11:32am
Manolo

@stephieboy: Why do you like (and support) violent criminals so much?
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November 12, 2015 11:33am
SPC

Putin in crisis management mode on use of drugs in sport – proposes foreign person to head the Russian testing body. The point being to maintain their national body’s credibility and prevent Russia being singled out as a nation where the government supports its athletes “cheating” against the international regime.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11544241
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November 12, 2015 11:34am
publicwatchdog

Doesn’t John Key care about the voting power of New Zealand women?

Particularly (former?) female National Party voters?

Or have his Crosby Textor ‘spin doctors’ forgotten that famous piece of political advice – ‘once you’re in a hole – stop digging’?

(If, as has been rumoured, Crosby Textor helped PM John Key dig this particular ‘Labour supports rapists’ political hole – will their pay be docked – as it were?)

Just wondering …

Penny Bright
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November 12, 2015 11:34am
mikenmild

Fletch
It’s not too complicated. To use your example: if Key said some of the detainees were phone scammers, and added that the opposition were thus supporting phone scammers, could you see that opposition MPs who had been victims of phone scammers might get upset?
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November 12, 2015 11:35am
Albert_Ross

Odakyu-sen, I’ve no problem with what you say. But it’s not necessary to breach someone’s human rights in order to protect yourself from them.

Fletch, see my 11:05.
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November 12, 2015 11:36am
Griff

And therein lies the nonsense of climate alarmism. A good scientist does not disregard inconvenient measurements. He/she investigates further what is going on.
A good scientist doesn’t cherry pic data that suit their political ideology.
As I said there is problems with the method to measure temperatures
this is only some of the issues with using the data they generate
sorry for the long cut and paste but it shows how difficult it is to get meaning full results from them
http://www.scottchurchdirect.com/docs/MSU-Troposphere-Review01.pdf

Orbital Decay and Attitude Drift
During its service life of 2 to 8 years, episodic solar wind
events will cause the satellites
to experience some orbital
and attitude degradation. As the spac
ecraft orbit decays it will lose alti
tude, and MSU and AMSU sensors will see
different portions of the sky from distan
ces other than those expected (Wentz and
Schabel, 1998). Slight variations in
satellite attitude (roll orientation) will also alter MSU scan vi
ews. Nadir will be slightly off of nadir for instance, and
other views will also be similarl
y degraded. This will have the effect of
eroding the weighting f
unctions for each scan
and introducing spurious temperature variations (Mears et al
., 2002). Fortunately, these two effects can be accounted
for. The orbital mechanics for the POES spacecraft are well known and altitude degradation can be precisely
determined. Loss of altitude can be combined with corrections
to radiative transfer functions to remove orbital decay
effects. Satellite attitude bias is syst
ematic across all scan views so that when
combined with known orbital decay, roll
induced variations can be adjusted to the nadir view. T
hese corrections have been applied to most recent datasets
(Wentz and Schabel, 1998; Mears et al., 2002; Christy et al., 2003).
Diurnal Sampling Variations
As already mentioned, TIROS satellite orbi
ts are sun synchronous with
a daily orbital precessi
on rate of 0.986” that
preserves orientation and LECT’s throughout the year. However,
for most TIROS platforms, this precession rate is not
perfect, and slight variations in it introduce a drift in orbita
l path with respect to the sun and earth. This drift over
extended periods causes the daily equatorial crossing times of
each satellite to occur earlier or later in the day than
expected with respect to local ephemeris time. Since temper
ature varies on a diurnal cycle from day to night, this
introduces another spurious temperature variation into MSU pr
oducts. Drifts of up to 0.5 hr/year have been observed.
Diurnal sampling errors, though systematic
in their effects, occur randomly and co
rrelate imperfectly with observations,
which can make them difficult to account for in datasets.
One approach is to compare data from view angles to the left
and right of nadir at predetermined daily times during asce
nding (northbound) and descending (southbound) orbital
segments. Data from different view angl
es will correspond to different local times at different points in satellite orbit –
from roughly an hour at the equator to several hours at the
poles. Observations of these differences over many
ascending and descending orbital cycles allow for a drift rate
to be backed out of the data variations (Christy et al.,
2000). The approach is straightforward, but the result
ing calculation is quite involved and compounds many other
uncertainties making the derivation of reliable numbers tr
oublesome. Another approach is to use high resolution
climate model simulations to recreate the diurnal brightnes
s temperature variations expe
cted along the satellite orbital
path. The data from such models may then be used to correct each measurement to local noon and remove diurnal
drifts. The modeled diurnal cycle temperature variations
can in turn be validated against actual morning to evening
temperature variations as observed by MS
U platforms themselves (Mears et al., 2002). With proper validation of the
climate modeling against observations, this methodology
has the advantage of consider
ably reduced sampling noise
compared to the cross scan methodology.
Intersatellite Data Drift
To date, NOAA has operated 11 TIROS-N and/or TIROS-
ATN Class satellites since 1978. In theory, these
spacecraft and their instrument packages should all behave id
entically. The MSU and AMSU packages in particular all
contain the exact same components (per class) and are all calibrated prior to launch according to the same guidelines
and protocols. In theory! In practice however, signific
ant differences in measured brightness temperature have been
observed between pairs of satellites whose service live
s overlap – up to 0.4 deg. K (Hurrell and Trenberth, 1998;
Christy et al. 1998; NRC, 2000). Much of this difference is re
lated to IBE but not all of it. It is not clear where the
remainder is coming from (NRC, 2000). Analyses to date hav
e accounted for this drift by comparing data from pairs of
satellites whose service lives overlap each
other. Typically, during
service life overlap, data fr
om co-orbiting pairs of
satellites are smoothed with running averages to remove noise
and facilitate comparison. Then, after correcting for
other noise sources, a single continuous time series
can be created from the independent records by generating a
single curve that minimizes the differences with the indivi
dual records – in other words, “merging” them. Typically,
merge calculations of this sort are done with a least squar
es mathematical technique and the reliability of the merge is
Located at:
http://www.scottchurchdirect.com
>>
Climate
Change
>>
Troposphere
Temperatures
14 of
144
evaluated with a statistical analysis of the residuals (the le
ftover differences between the final time series and the
individual satellite records).
For this to work, it is important to have a long enough overl
ap period between co-orbiting satellites for a statistically
significant comparison of records. In most cases, over
laps are long enough for this to be done. But a few of the
overlaps, particularly the NOAA-9/NOAA-10 overlap, are not.
NOAA-10 was put into service in September of 1986.
The NOAA-9 MSU unit failed unrecoverably in May of 1987 and
produced no more data after that (the satellite was
deactivated in February of 1998). As a result, only 90
days of overlapping data were
generated between these two
satellites – not adequate for a truly solid merge of the two.
Accounting for this overlap has been the most problematic
challenge facing the MSU/AMSU record. The merging procedure must also correct for the IBE and other equipment
non-linearities as well. But for the reasons noted ab
ove, this can only be done to a certain extent.
Based on these considerations, differing dataset merg
ing methodologies have been applied to the MSU/AMSU
record, resulting in trend differences that at one time or
another have spanned a 0.76 deg. K/decade spread (Mears et
al., 2002, Christy et al., 1998; 2000; 2003; Vinnikov & Grody
, 2004). In some cases the short overlaps have been
omitted entirely from long-term datasets (Christy et al.,
2000; 2003). In others, it has been used and evaluated against
the remaining long-term trends (Mears et al., 2002). Of thes
e, the methodologies with the lowest error characteristics
and the best fit with overall long-term trends have been
used and corrections have been made as the sources of error
were discovered (Christy et al., 1998; Christy et al., 2003;
Mears et al., 2002). But even after nearly 15 years of error
removal, there are still considerable differences in the results
arrived at by the latest analys
es. To date, it appears that
the poor overlap of the NOAA-9 record with that of conjoining
satellites is the largest contributor to MSU/AMSU dataset
uncertainties, accounting for at much a 65 percent of
the total spread between current
ly existing analyses based on
MSU/AMSU products (Karl et al., 2002).
Antarctic Sea-Ice and Melt Pool Albedo Impacts
MSU and AMSU devices measure atmospheric temperatures
as digital counts of radiation under the presumption
that the primary source of this radiation is upwelling emi
ssions from the atmosphere that
follow the weighting functions
of each channel (see Figure 7). They are not able by t
hemselves to determine where t
he radiation counts they are
measuring originated from. Thus, the accuracy of their me
asurements of troposphere temperatures and trends depend
on the presumption that all digital counts are the result
of atmospheric radiation and t
he reliability of the channel
weighting functions. The high southern latitudes (above 60 deg.
S) contain significant portions of sea-ice of Antarctic
origin. Likewise, high northern latitudes exhibit signific
ant sea-ice fraction of their own, though these are of
considerably smaller extent than their Antarctic counterpa
rts. During the austral summer melt season this sea-ice
shrinks to an area of roughly 3 million km
2
, and then increases to 18 million km
2
during the winter and spring (Cavalieri
et al., 1997). Because of its high albedo, sea-ice area increa
ses will increase the surface generated digital counts to
MSU and AMSU sensors, and will appear to them as a spurious
warming. Likewise, decreases in this sea-ice and the
corresponding increases in melt pond area will appear as
a cooling. Sea-ice area data has been gathered since the
late 70’s by Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer
(SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SMM/I)
devices flying aboard NASA Nimbus-7 and Defense Dept.
Meteorological satellites. These devices are passive
microwave detectors similar to the
MSU and AMSU devices aboard NOAA POES satellites, and measure sea-ice as
brightness temperature readings. Data from these platfo
rms shows that between 1979 and 2002 Arctic sea-ice shrunk
by about 360,000 km
2
and overall Antarctic sea-ice increased sli
ghtly, though West-Antarctic sea-ice decreased
(Cavalieri et al., 1997). However, radiosonde data from the
Antarctic region also indicates that during the satellite era
there may have been lower troposphere warming as well as high troposphere cooling due to ozone depletion
(Thompson and Solomon, 2002). In addition, the breakup
of the Larsen A and B ice shelves (in January of 1995 and
March of 2002, respectively) also might have contributed to
relative sea-ice and relative ocean/melt pool areas. The
Antarctic peninsula has warmed considerably in recent decades
, as shown by various direct and proxy measurements
reveal (Vaughan et al., 2001). The resulting warmer temperat
ures have likely increased melt pool area on the ice that
remains during austral summer. These melt pools ar
e indistinguishable to MSU and AMSO devices from the
surrounding ocean, and thus must be considered as part of t
he surface radiation balance from higher latitudes. Recent
comparisons of daily anomalies at southern latitudes hi
gher than 60 deg. Has revealed
a strong correlation between
Antarctic ice summer melt periods and 2LT and TLT cooli
ng trends (Swanson, 2003). Due to its higher altitude
weighting, these fluctuations will exhibit only a minor im
pact on the Channel 2 trend and thus will have little impact on
the MSU/AMSU products of the R
SS, Prabhakara, and VG teams
2 18
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November 12, 2015 11:38am
Garbageman

Is it just me or does Gabby sound like a certain foul mouthed bloke with the chicks name that runs an insane asylum called The Standard, such hatred must be bad for the soul
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November 12, 2015 11:38am
Rowan

Simon @ 8.33
Gripp is a delusional pothead who is most probably high as a kite, if you read the later part of yesterday’s GD, the nutjob reckons that taking communion in a Church is “cannibalism” go figure!
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November 12, 2015 11:38am
Tauhei Notts

Mikenmild,
I meant my comment at 11.26 to be abusive, not nasty.
The woman has not been abused since she was 15 so I thought I would bring her up to date.
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November 12, 2015 11:39am
mikenmild

Tauhei
A woman says in public that she was sexually abused when she was 15. You trivialise this by implying:
1. That this sexual abuse is equivalent to your verbal abuse – harmless
2. That she needed to be abused.
Like I said – pretty nasty.
3 14
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November 12, 2015 11:42am
SPC

Rowan, it is certainly Cain and Abel’ism. As the acceptance of human sacrificial offering of atonement is demonstrated by the ingestion of the presence of symbolic grain based form.
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November 12, 2015 11:43am
mikenmild

Rowan
I don’t know if you are a Christian or not, but my understanding is that true Christians believe that in taking communion they are eating Christ’s flesh and drinking his blood through the magical powers of transubstantiation. Seems a lot like ritualised cannibalism to me.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/File:CommunionMunroe.png
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November 12, 2015 11:43am
stigie

“That’s actually a pretty nasty comment, Tauhei, if you reflect on it”.

Thats actually a pretty damn fine accurate comment, Tauhei, if you reflect on it !~
11 2
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November 12, 2015 11:45am
Kimbo

@ mikenmild

I don’t know if you are a Christian or not, but my understanding is that true Christians believe that in taking communion they are eating Christ’s flesh and drinking his blood through the magical powers of transubstantiation.

Umm. no. Roman Catholics, yes. But it was one of the sticking points that cemented in place the Reformation. And from a Protestant perspective true Christian teaching rejects the error of transubstantiation…as found I think in most Protestant Confessions such as the 39 Articles (Anglicans) the Westminster Confession (Presbyterians), the Belgic Confession (Reformed), and the Ausgburg Confession (Lutherans)
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November 12, 2015 11:50am
Brigitte

Just a note on the RSS readings. The lower troposphere (~10km up) is used to show “no warming”. They take the last 30 years to get that figure. It will vary each year as new data become available (by a small amount). They do not go back to the start (about 40 years) since that gives a warming of 0.16C per decade which rather spoils the story.

One shortcoming of satellite data is that the satellites generally circulate close to the equator. I’m not sure that a complete ‘global’ temperature is available but rather ones relating to a range of latitudes.

To be honest, if more heat is retained on or near the surface then I’d expect that the upper atmosphere would be cooling as a result (less heat escaping to reheat the air on its way into space). I know that the interaction with ozone complicates the warming/cooling so the CFC/Ozone hole would have had a distortionary effect (not sure if that means it is warming or cooling more than reported as the ozone layer is repairing).

However, as we live and grow crops on the surface, I’m rather more interested in what’s happening there.
6 2
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November 12, 2015 11:50am
Griff

the nutjob reckons that taking communion in a Church is “cannibalism” go figure!

Eating the flesh and drinking the blood of Christ is cannibalism .
No practicing catholic can deny that they do actually eat the flesh and drink the blood of Christ.
http://www.catholic.com/tracts/browse/Eucharist

The Real Presence

The doctrine of the Real Presence asserts that in the Holy Eucharist, Jesus is literally and wholly present—body and blood,

So the nut job is you with your ignorance on display for all to see and laugh at.
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November 12, 2015 11:51am
mikenmild

I’m going to go with the Roman Catholics on this one Kimbo, and take their doctrine as an accurate representation of what millions of Christians sincerely believe.
The fact that some other sects of Christianity have rejected one particular piece of doctrine in favour of symbolic cannibalism only does not persuade me that anything sensible is gong on here.
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November 12, 2015 11:56am
SGA

mikenmild at 11:43 am

true Christians believe that in taking communion they are eating Christ’s flesh and drinking his blood through the magical powers of transubstantiation

true Christians, huh? 🙂
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November 12, 2015 11:56am
Griff

Brigitte
Thy satellites run about six months behind the surface record.
With the present strong El Nino just beginning to show up on the satellite record they can only keep up the No warming stupidity for a couple more months before it becomes insupportable.
Of course they will then just chnge to another piece of wingnuttery and ignore their prior positions.
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November 12, 2015 11:57am
Kimbo

@ Griff

…The Real Presence…

The problem comes, Griff, when semi-ignorant pagans like yourself bandy holy truths around like chimpanzees flinging dung, that as one rather amusing theology lecturer pointed out in a class I was in

…no matter what their denomination or religious tradition or perspective, no Christian believes entirely in the “Real Absence” of Christ at the Eucharist.

Go do some more research 😉
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November 12, 2015 11:58am
Maggy Wassilieff

@Griff

Funny old things -thermometers – and nowadays all the modern types of thermocouples and radiation imaging equipment available.

Mercury thermometers got underway from the 1750s…. and Docs learnt that normal human body temp was around 37 C / 98.6F.
We still accept that value……

No adjustments, no homogenisations, no mutterings that those old chaps couldn’t measure body temperatures accurately.

Funny that the same old thermometers ( all calibrated the same way) can’t be trusted for measuring air temperatures, and some data sets need adjusting every year or so.
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November 12, 2015 12:02pm
mikenmild

Ha ha

The artist Michael Craig-Martin presented a piece of work entitled An Oak Tree in 1973 that perhaps best explains how people think transubstantiation actually works. Despite An Oak Tree consisting of nothing more than a glass of water, the artist declared that it was actually a full grown oak tree. As he explained: “it’s not a symbol. I have changed the physical substance of the glass of water into that of an oak tree. I didn’t change its appearance. The actual oak tree is physically present, but in the form of a glass of water.” So now that’s all cleared up, anyone for crackers?
6 6
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November 12, 2015 12:03pm
Shawn Herles

“I don’t know if you are a Christian or not, but my understanding is that true Christians believe that in taking communion they are eating Christ’s flesh and drinking his blood”

It’s a Roman Catholic doctrine. Protestants have different views. Unless of course you are saying you believe that the RC is the one true church.

” Seems a lot like ritualised cannibalism to me.”

You think men wearing dresses and having fake tits are some beings called “transgenders” who through the magic of Liberal-Left speak have ceased being men and miraculously transformed into women, and can now use women’s toilets. So does Goof. Looks like a secular-Liberal version of transubstantiation to me. 🙂

So, neither of you are in a position to criticize other peoples magic. 🙂
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November 12, 2015 12:03pm
Kimbo

@ mikenmild

I’m going to go with the Roman Catholics on this one Kimbo, and take their doctrine as an accurate representation of what millions of Christians sincerely believe.
The fact that some other sects of Christianity have rejected one particular piece of doctrine in favour of symbolic cannibalism only does not persuade me that anything sensible is gong on here.

Brilliant! As it does not support his argument, mikenmild prefers to jettison one of the crucial distinctive cornerstones of an entire theological, ecclesiastical and political movement we call “The Reformation”, that some 500 years ago shaped the world with lasting and profound changes that dramatically impact our present lives continually, and to which hundreds of millions now-labelled by the distinct term “Protestant” derive their spiritual heritage, including, let it be noted, our own head of state, plus the original historic settlement of the provinces of Canterbury and Otago, and the original missionaries to Maori…not to mention the first Christian service ever conducted in New Zealand (Marsden on Christmas Day, 1814)!

You starting to figure out why I don’t tend to rate your wilful opinions particularly highly, mikenmild?
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November 12, 2015 12:04pm
Manolo

An article critical of the Messiah: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/11/obama-has-the-wrong-strategy-on-syria-commentary.html
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November 12, 2015 12:04pm
Griff

I am not arguing with you about what all Christians believe Kimbo.
I dont doupt that most Christan sects take it as a symbol for rather than the actual flesh and blood
Merely pointing out specifically that catholic doctrine is ritual cannibalism.
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November 12, 2015 12:05pm
Rowan

Mouldy Mike
Roman Catholics make up a small proportion of the worlds christian population, most of their beliefs are pretty wacky and if you think that communion is literally Christs blood and body then you are as delusional as Gripp! I think that you will find pretty much every other form of Christianity takes as symbolic of Christs body and blood.
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November 12, 2015 12:05pm
stephieboy

Manolo (18,331 comments) says:
November 12th, 2015 at 11:, no I don’t support violent criminals but I do support the idea that our nation teaches civilzed values and norms and not barbaric ones that you and ISIS appear to support.

Do you believe murderers and rapists should be burnt in cages or hung, drawn and quartered ?
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November 12, 2015 12:06pm
mikenmild

Kimbo
It doesn’t particularly concern me whether that some adherents of zombie Jesus no longer believe in the real presence in the Eucharist. It’s just any example of the whacky notions of millions of the religiously deluded.
It’s much along the lines of that much more real question: which would win in a battle: the Enterprise or a Star Destroyer?
5 4
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November 12, 2015 12:08pm
Gabby

Hey, calendar girl, try as I might I could find no sign that you find ‘Liebore’ particularly objectionable. Jacinda Ardern et al seem to have been attacked re their appearance with nary a word offered in their defence by you. Len ‘Pants down’ Brown as an epithet appears to have passed by uncommented on by your good self. Far be it from me to suggest that you are an arrant mealymouthed hypocrite but the (lack of contrary) evidence seems to point that way.
Maybe you should take the matter up with the fuckwit brigade who find ‘Phil Goof’ hilarious.
Athendotheday Ponyboy is priddirilacksed about name calling. He’d prolly suggest you gedda sensa yuma.
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November 12, 2015 12:09pm
Griff

You think men wearing dresses and having fake tits are some beings called “transgenders” who through the magic

Hate to tell you this Shawn
Jesus was the product of a birth with no male influence .
Modern genetic knowledge tells us he could have no y chromosome.
Jesus was a trans sexual…….
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November 12, 2015 12:09pm
Andrei

Roman Catholics make up a small proportion of the worlds christian population

Wrong they make up the majority of the worlds Christian population

Orthodox Christians who also believe come second in numbers

Heretic Protestants are in the minority
6 3
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November 12, 2015 12:10pm
SGA

Rowan at 12:05 pm

Mouldy Mike
Roman Catholics make up a small proportion of the worlds christian population,

What????
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November 12, 2015 12:11pm
mikenmild

Rowan
Roman Catholics ‘a small proportion of the worlds(sic) christian population’? I think they are over half of the world’s 2.4 billion Christians, actually.
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November 12, 2015 12:11pm
SPC

My opinion on the matter, from merely reading the bible and ignoring he teachings of various churches or Christian theology (they seek to justify their church and the religion).

1. When Jesus says his body and blood are symbolised by the bread and wine.

He was reminding people of the time when the bread multiplied – when people received teaching and when discussing the teaching afterward the teaching grew further (there was more bread than before they discussed what he had taught).

Thus bread referred to the body of his teaching work and how his disciples could take it on and grow it further.

2. As for the wine.

He was one who taught 12 and if they chose 12 followers to teach in the same way – the number of disciples would grandfather through to 144 (and so on into thousands). This referred as much to the personal leadership example shown as the body of the teaching itself. Jesus claimed royal blood as a descendant of King David. But related to Psalm 2 comes to mean the spirit of those who call God father.

3. The ultimate meaning to my mind is the future of mortal flesh man post death.

If he could survive death of the mortal flesh body then this was possible for others of the mortal flesh body too. And this would be part of the faith in God as their father. Symbolised by eating the bread and partaking of the wine – to imply the presence of his faith in God also being with them.
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November 12, 2015 12:11pm
Kimbo

Heretic Protestants are in the minority

he he he. You still sore we went with the ‘filioque’ clause, Andrei?
4 1
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November 12, 2015 12:12pm
Shawn Herles

Absolutely hilarious, and scary, short film by Australian filmmaker Neel Kolhatkar. Sit in on Math class in the Social Justice Warrior future!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKcWu0tsiZM
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November 12, 2015 12:12pm
rangitoto

“Do you believe murderers and rapists should be burnt in cages or hung, drawn and quartered ?”

As far as I can tell the Aussie’s aren’t doing that yet, or have your Daesh friends already taken over?
7 0
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November 12, 2015 12:13pm
Rowan

Mouldymike and the pothead are displaying their woeful ignorance of religion what a surprise! And the proportion of the worlds Catholics is irrelevant, beliefwise they are the minority, no other denomination buys this one!
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November 12, 2015 12:14pm
Shawn Herles

“Wrong they make up the majority of the worlds Christian population

Orthodox Christians who also believe come second in numbers”

Both churches are in decline. On the numbers, before the end of the century the largest group of Christians globally will be Pentecostals.
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November 12, 2015 12:14pm
Andrei

e he he. You still sore we went with the ‘filioque’ clause, Andrei?

I doubt that the way you say the creed will matter very much on the dread day of judgement Kimbo

Nor your views on communion literally being the body and blood of Christ or not
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November 12, 2015 12:17pm
Kimbo

@ Shawn Herles

…before the end of the century the largest group of Christians globally will be Pentecostals.

Shudder!
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November 12, 2015 12:17pm
Rowan

“Modern genetic knowledge tells us he could have no y chromosome.
Jesus was a trans sexual…….”

Right the potheads scientific understanding is about the same quality as his religious one!
You just have to laugh at some people!
LMAO Gripp!
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November 12, 2015 12:18pm
stephieboy

Rowan, Catholics in fact make up about a half of the world’s 2 billion Christians. I have no problem with the belief in transubination as such and see it more in a figurtaively spiitual and faith sense than a physical one.

As a protestant I also respect the Catholic church with all its many faults and many , many good things it brings to the world- beautiful art, literature , architecture , music etc that has profoundly influence and shaped our culture for the better .

Not to speak of its innumerable charities and help to the needy and poor.
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November 12, 2015 12:18pm
SPC

What’s traditional in Christianity, someone declaring what is the true form and declaring the rest to be of false form – as old as the writings of Paul.

But not as old as false or true or is that true and false Messiah’s
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November 12, 2015 12:19pm

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