October 6, 2015 9:00am by David Farrar

September Public Polls

Just published the monthly polling newsletter. The executive summary is:

There were three political voting polls in September – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton and a 3 News Reid Research.

The average of the public polls has National 14% ahead of Labour in September, down 8% from August back to what it was in July. The current seat projection is centre-right 58 seats, centre-left 54 which would see NZ First holding the balance of power.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States Hillary Clinton’s favourability continues to drop, reaching -13%. Donald Trump also has falling favourability hitting -20%. Both Clinton and Trump remains the leaders in the polls for their nominations though.

In the UK Jeremy Corbyn faces considerable challenges with 32% of Labour voters saying they think David Cameron would be a better Prime Minister than Corbyn. Personal beliefs of Corbyn such as withdrawing from NATO have only 9% support. Also in a significant change there is now a plurality in favour of leaving the EU, in the wake of the refugee crisis.

In Australia Malcolm Turnbull has a honeymoon. The Coalition has gained a net 10% on the two party preferred vote. Turnbull has a net approval rating of +34% compared to his predecessor Abbott who had -33% and Opposition Leader Shorten on -25%.

In Canada a fairy dramatic change with the campaign underway, seeing the Conservatives gain 5% and retake the lead. However projections still have them well off getting a majority.

We also carry details of polls on the NZ Flag, private prisons, Labour Deputy Leadership, foreign investment, the TPP plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

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