NZ Flag survey results

Got over 2,500 responses in just over half a day to the online survey on flag preferences. This is the first survey that I have seen that asked people to rank all six options for the NZ flag in order. The aim was to understand preferences better,

It is not a scientific poll as it was self-selecting from people who read my blog, or follow me on Facebook or Twitter (plus their circles).

Anyway what were the results of the first preferences:

1. Union Jack & Southern Cross 26.3%
2. Silver Fern (Black, White & Blue) 25.8%
3. Red Peak 24.0%
4. Silver Fern (Red, White & Blue) 18.4%
5. Silver Fern (Black & White) 3.8%
6. Koru 1.6%

So the current design is the most popular.

What happens when we drop off the least preferred design.

1. Union Jack & Southern Cross 26.6%
2. Silver Fern (Black, White & Blue) 26.0%
3. Red Peak 24.8%
4. Silver Fern (Red, White & Blue) 18.6%
5. Silver Fern (Black & White) 4.0%

Then you drop of the black and white fern:

1. Silver Fern (Black, White & Blue) 28.2%
2. Union Jack & Southern Cross 27.2%
3. Red Peak 25.2%
4. Silver Fern (Red, White & Blue) 19.4%

So now we are left with the four most popular options, all with significant support. What happens when the red, white and blue fern drops off?

1. Silver Fern (Black, White & Blue) 42.4%
2. Union Jack & Southern Cross 30.9%
3. Red Peak 26.6%

No surprise most support from one the Kyle Lockwood designs goes to the other. The big question now is if Red Peak drops out, what do its supporters do?

1. Silver Fern (Black, White & Blue) 53.7%
2. Union Jack & Southern Cross 46.3%

Most Red Peak supporters actually ranked the current NZ Flag higher than the Black, White and Blue Silver Fern. The current flag picked up 15.4% and the fern 11.3%. But in this survey the fern flag would still win as it had a big buffer. Note again this is not predicting the referendum outcome.

So how would each of the five alternative flags go against the current NZ Flag? This is what they would each get in a one on one:

1. Silver Fern (Red, White & Blue) 54.5%
2. Silver Fern (Black, White & Blue) 53.7%
3. Red Peak 41.5%
4. Silver Fern (Black & White) 37.4%
5. Koru 29.1%

So among those who did the survey, only the two Kyle Lockwood designs would win against the NZ flag. Of interest is the design with red does slightly better than the design with black, even though it has less primary support.

An excel file with the survey data is here – Flag Preferences – in case anyone wants to do further analysis on the preferences. Again this is not about predicting the outcome, but about understanding how the supporters of certain flags feel about the other flags.