Clark a long shot say bookies

There’s been numerous articles this week pushing the idea that Helen Clark is a front runner for UN Secretary-General.

It is highly highly likely that the next Secretary-General will come from Eastern Europe, due to the unwritten policy on regional rotation.

While not absolutely reliable, prediction markets have a good accuracy record with political events. And what do two bookmakers say are the current odds for Clark?

• Bet Breaking News has Clark at a 33/1 which is a 2.9% chance. Of the 19 potential candidates she is in 17th place
• Sports Bet has Clark at much the same odds and in the same 17/19

So talking about Clark as a front runner is rather silly.

I think the front runner is Dalia Grybauskaitė. She is the current President of Lithuania and prior to that a European Commissioner.

She speaks English, Lithuanian, Russian, French and Polish. She won election as President as an Independent, and was a popular reforming European Commissioner.

Her biggest challenge would be getting past a Russian veto.