No bounce for Labour
I’ve blogged at Curia the results of the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll.
A 1% lift for Labour is statistically insignificant, so there week of headlines on blaming the Chinese for Auckland house prices has come to nought.
Some journalists were saying this could be Labour’s Orewa. The week after Don Brash’s Orewa speech saw National go up 17% in the polls, not 1%.
Here’s a comparison of the One News poll with previous ones:
| Jul-15 | 3 mths | 3 years | 9 years | |
| National | 47% | 49% | 48% | 45% |
| Labour | 32% | 31% | 32% | 43% |
| PM | 40% | 42% | 45% | 39% |
| Opp Ldr | 8% | 11% | 13% | 14% |
Both National and Labour are polling at much the same level as both 3 months ago and 3 years ago. If you go back to nine years ago (when Labour were in their third term), the opposition party was 2% ahead of the Government, not 15% below.
As for Preferred PM, Ket is at much the same level Clark was at nine years ago. But Little is polling worse than David Shearer three years ago and Don Brash nine years ago.